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12:09 PM PT: NY-01: Flying in the face of a string of polls that have showed Dem Rep. Tim Bishop with comfortable leads, conservative mystery PAC Prosperity First has a new survey from Fabrizio, McLaughlin which has Republican challenger Randy Altschuler leading 49-46. What's particularly odd about this is that Altschuler's response to earlier polling has generally been to shoot the messenger—his pollster even accused independent Siena College of trying "to bias the elections in favor of Democrats"! Sure, that was last month and maybe things have changed since then, but you'd think if they had better numbers of their own, they'd point those out rather than act like such spazzes. Anyhow, there are no presidential toplines, but the sample is 39-30 Republican, several points redder than the GOP's 35-30 registration edge in the district.
12:20 PM PT: NV-Sen: In what's about as thin a leak as can be—literally one sentence provided to The Fix—Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley's campaign says they have a new poll from the Mellman Group showing her up 42-39 over GOP Sen. Dean Heller. That's it—aside from sample size and field dates, that's all we know. To me, it sort of feels like an attempt to prove that Berkley, who has trailed in pretty much all polling, is still relevant. The one positive thought I can offer is that Nevada polling consistently underestimated Harry Reid in 2010—except for Reid's own polling, from... Mark Mellman, the same guy who's working for Berkley.
12:26 PM PT: VA-Sen (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D): 48 (52), George Allen (R): 47 (45). Amusingly, Rasmussen tries to wave away their inexplicable bouncing numbers by describing Kaine's 52-45 edge a week ago as a "modest lead."
12:45 PM PT: OH-Sen (PPP): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (49), Josh Mandel (R): 42 (41). The more important news is that Obama's up 51-46, a touch better than his 49-45 mark two weeks ago. Also amusingly, PPP tested Mandel against Generic D in a hypothetical 2014 re-election race for state Treasurer. He's trailing 40-39. And finally, there's good news on the redistricting front, where the ballot measure to create an independent redistricting commission is now "only" failing by a 44-37 margin—actually a big improvement from the disastrous 49-26 spread in PPP's last poll.
12:48 PM PT: FL-Sen (PPP): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 45 (46), Connie Mack (R): 37 (37). Obama, unfortunately, has seen his fortunes sag in Florida: He led Romney 50-46 here in late September but now trails 49-48. Democrats are also faring considerably worse on the generic congressional ballot, going from 47-43 edge to a 44-all tie.
12:51 PM PT: And here's footage of Biggert flailing at the debate. It's extremely painful.
1:03 PM PT: VA-02: I don't quite understand why Virginia-based Christopher Newport University contracts out its polling to yet another school (Pennsylvania's Muhlenberg College), but in any event, the two schools, along with a pair of local media organizations, are out with a new poll of VA-02. They find GOP Rep. Scott Rigell leading Democrat Paul Hirschbiel 44-32. That's quite a lot of undecideds, but the margin's closer to what Hirschbiel's internal polling has found (+9 GOP), as opposed to Rigell's (+22). In the Senate race, Republican George Allen is leading 42-38 here, but surprisingly, Obama's running ahead of Tim Kaine, with a 45-44 edge over Romney. That's quite believable, seeing as the president won here by exactly one point in 2008.
1:35 PM PT: MI-11: Holy hell:
In a 1996 court case, Bentivolio testified to the fact that his two identities were beginning to blur, according to court documents obtained by The Daily Caller.
"I'd like to say I'm really Santa Claus and I play somebody else the rest of the year," Bentivolio said during the court proceedings. [...]
During his testimony before the court, Bentivolio referred to himself as "we," something noted in the court opinion, along with the fact that "he was reluctant when asked to refer to himself as 'I.'"
According to the court opinion, this was not just something he did while in court. Rather, "witnesses testified that he demanded recognition of this persona from his entourage."
During the line of questioning about why Bentivolio referred to himself as "we," he noted: "Maybe I should have went to see a shrink."
I have no words. If you want background on Republican Kerry Bentivolio's lawsuit that ultimately wound up eliciting this testimony from him, you can follow the link, or check out
this even more detailed report from the
Detroit Free Press. The Freep goes deep into Bentivolio's bankruptcy (which indirectly prompted this court case), and the various court cases (at least 16 of them) involving unpaid Bentivolio debts. Amazing.
1:40 PM PT: So it turns out the Berkley campaign did put out a memo (and of course Jon Ralston was able to get his hands on it), but apparently they only teased the toplines to The Fix.
1:45 PM PT: NM-Sen (Research & Polling): Martin Heinrich (D): 48 (49), Heather Wilson (R): 39 (42)
1:52 PM PT: FL-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (48), Connie Mack (R): 42 (40)
1:59 PM PT: AZ-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters, which had heavily targeted the open-seat New Mexico Senate race, is now setting its sites one state to the west: In conjunction with Majority PAC, the LCV will launch a $450K buy in Arizona attacking GOP Rep. Jeff Flake. The spot hits Flake for "sponsor[ing] legislation to allow uranium mining that would threaten the Colorado River."
2:16 PM PT: NY-24: A good catch by FoleysFolly: In a new ad, GOP Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle hilariously tries to claim that she's "worked with the president" (hang on, wait for it) "as his U.N. representative." Buerkle, an extremely conservative congresswoman who's proven unable to moderate herself or her image in what is a Dem-tilting district, obviously is making a last-ditch effort to do so now. But you wanna know the best part? This whole "U.N. representative" thing was a purely ceremonial, one-day gig, for which she was tapped by John Boehner and rubber-stamped by Obama. To give you a sense of what a crock this all is, Buerkle's Democratic counterpart was none other than Missouri Rep. Russ Carnahan, an unpopular backbencher who's just playing out the string, seeing as he lost a hopeless redistricting-induced primary months ago.
2:25 PM PT: CA-09: Here's the expected Democratic counterpunch to that recent Republican poll that had Ricky Gill beating Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney 46-45: It's a DCCC internal from Global Strategy Group that shows McNerney with a 47-38 lead. You can also feel pretty good about the sample: Obama leads Romney 51-42, which is several points closer than the president's 56-41 win here in 2008—thus suggesting, if anything, a pessimistic sample. The generic congressional ballot looks good, too, with Dems ahead 49-38.
2:54 PM PT: FL-22: This is almost a week old, but it seems like an important piece of news: The YG Action Fund, which had been supporting Republican Adam Hasner in his uphill effort to beat Democrat Lois Frankel, has decided to abandon him for more promising targets. (Instead, they'll try to help out Allen West in the neighboring 18th.)
2:57 PM PT: NRCC: National Republicans are rolling out ads in 16 new districts, for a combined total buy of over $6 million. All of them are in familiar races, though a few are somewhat interesting. For instance, they're spending another $250K in UT-04, suggesting that race might not look quite as favorable for the GOP as they'd hope. They're also still playing in NV-03, despite polling that shows GOP Rep. Joe Heck in decent shape. The full list (with size of the buys and links to all the ads) is at the link.
4:18 PM PT: 3Q Fundraising:
• HI-Sen: Mazie Hirono (D): $1.42 mil raised, $689K cash-on-hand; Linda Lingle (R): $823K raised
• ME-Sen: Angus King (I): $1.1 mil raised, $464K cash-on-hand; Charlie Summers (R): $507K raised, $189K cash-on-hand; Cynthia Dill, $57K raised, $10K cash-on-hand
• ND-Sen: Rick Berg (R): $1.6 mil raised, $1.5 mil cash-on-hand
• NE-Sen: Bob Kerrey (D): $1.7 mil raised
• NV-Sen: Shelley Berkley (D): $1.65 mil raised, $925K cash-on-hand; Dean Heller (R-inc): $1.9 mil raised, $1.9 mil cash-on-hand
• PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc): $1.5 mil raised, $5.2 mil cash-on-hand; Tom Smith (R): $1.6 mil raised (plus $10 mil loan), $7 mil cash-on-hand
• WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D): $4.6 mil raised, $3.5 mil cash-on-hand; Tommy Thompson (R): $3.6 mil raised, $2 mil cash-on-hand
4:30 PM PT: ATR: Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform (you know, the crazy anti-tax pledge people) just announced half a dozen new ad buys of truly eye-popping proportions: CA-52 ($1.6 mil), CO-03 ($1.3 mil), GA-12 ($496K), NY-18 ($756K), OH-06 ($1.7 mil), and PA-12 ($840K). Wow. Links to all of ATR's press releases (which contain copies of the ads) are at the link. So far, they've filed an independent expenditure report for about $2 million out of the $6.7 million or so they say they plan to spend, so plans may yet change.
4:40 PM PT: AAN/CLF: The conservative American Action Network and its super PAC arm, the Congressional Leadership Fund—both of which are tied at least indirectly to House Speaker John Boehner—just released five new ads, the first salvo in its planned $13 million October spending spree. The targets are all familiar: CA-10, IA-03, MN-08, NH-01, and NY-27. Links to the ads and details about the buys at the link.