I come bearing good news. Follow me over the Kos Kurl if you think you can handle it.
President Obama wins Scholastic 2012 poll 51-45:
http://magazines.scholastic.com/...
Keep in mind, this poll has been wrong only twice since 1940: the very close elections of 1948 (which almost everyone missed) and 1960. And the polling for Scholastic in 1960 was done prior to the famous first Kennedy/Nixon debate.
Oh, and just so you worriers know: Voting this year in the Scholastic poll was concluded last Wednesday, a full seven days after the first 2012 debate.
If you take a look at the state-by-state breakdown, it seems that only three states might have different colors come Nov. 6: North Carolina, Virginia, and Arizona. So, perhaps our kids have more insight than we often give them credit for.
Also, today’s RAND survey continues its trend in the right direction, after getting scarily close (under 2 points) last week:
https://mmicdata.rand.org/...
It’s over 5 points today. Hurrah!
And, finally, I’ve been visiting Princeton Professor Sam Wang’s election site for months now, and, to be honest, the explanations are usually over my head, since I’m a word guy, not a numbers guy.
Finally, on Sunday, I mustered the courage to ask Dr. Wang a question directly:
Professor Wang,
I’m an editor, a word guy. Please take no offense, but when I see numbers and “meta-margin” this and “metric” that, my eyes start to glaze, and I get sleepy.
In no way am I discounting the importance of math and numbers. In fact, I have a young son who’s mathematically oriented and wishes to be an architect.
I think that’s awesome, and I feel the same way about your work and all the other numbers-rich sites I visit every day.
Here’s my bottom line, though: I’m an avid supporter of President Obama. Do you still feel, as you stated recently on your site, that the chances of him getting re-elected stand at 93%?
In other words, is his re-election at all in doubt, according to your calculations? Should I remain in a constant state of worry until Nov. 6, or should I go ahead and buy the bubbly?
Thanks.
And here’s his humorous response to me:
Words:
Imagine a six-gun loaded with five blue cartridges and one red cartridge. The blue ones will pass through you harmlessly. The red one, not. You pick up the gun.
Fade to black.
You may glaze again now.
Bottom line? He thinks that Obama has an 84% chance of being re-elected. Granted, it’s not as high as his initial 93% estimate, but Obama’s still his overwhelming choice:
http://election.princeton.edu/...
Keep in mind that Dr. Wang was incredibly accurate not only in 2008 but in 2004, as well.
Thanks for your time, and now back to your regularly scheduled dose of hysterical ninnies bearing pee-pee pants.