Gallup just released.
The raw numbers:
Romney 50 (+2)
Obama 46 (-2) Likely Voters
Romney 47 (+1)
Obama 47 (-1) Registered Voters
Approval @ 49% (+1)
Disapproval @ 45% (-2)
Some analysis after the jump...
The tracking poll is on a 7 day job and the approval tracker is a 3 day job. Last week Obama was dropping approval but holding steady in tracking; clearly took some time to move towards the overall numbers. I suspect there has been a modest but real shift to Obama over the weekend, and that the approval numbers are an early-harbinger of that. Of course, after today everyone will attribute it to the debate when it probably started earlier.
However: the headline 50-46 number. Is it a result of this ad-blitz we've been hearing about from Team Romney? That is the only logical reason why numbers would change right now since the news has been not-newsy for days now.
I'm skeptical. Obama raised $180m+ last month, he isn't going to be out spent at all no matter what the press is saying - Team Obama has a record of keeping spending close to the vest to let their opponents think they are getting the better of them. I know this because I believed politico when they told me Obama was going to be out-spent 3-1 by PAC groups after Labor Day yet that didn't happen.
Anyways, my guess is the last 3 days have been maybe +1 in LV for Romney in this poll. Big night tonight!