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Just saw this little nugget from Mother Jones' Kevin Drum come across the feed and I thought I'd share it with you.

This race was always going to be close. The fundamentals have favored the President for a while.

Over the jump we go.

Reading Obama's Poll Drop: This is a Movie We've Seen Before

Three things to consider:

1. A late September surge by Romney for reasons that are (at the moment) still a bit of mystery.

2. Reversion to the mean. Obama was never going to win the election by five or six points, and his recent drop has been baked into the cake for a long time. His big lead was mostly an artifact of stupid mistakes by Romney, and eventually Romney recovered from them.

3.The media freakout over Obama's debate demeanor.

Remind yourself of this:
The consensus of the political science models is an Obama win by maybe two points or so.
Oh, there's a bonus Andrew Sullivan quote. Say this one out loud in a shrieky voice:
Here's a dishhead bleg: when was the last time that a sitting president in a re-election campaign lost six percentage points in the polls in two weeks in October?
And if anyone can explain to me what a "dishhead bleg" is, I'd be much obliged.

See you at the debate!

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, eXtina, Supavash, Arnie, gfv6800, retLT, reddbierd

    The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

    Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

    by TheGreatLeapForward on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 11:43:09 AM PDT

  •  last time sitting Pres lost 6 pts in October? (0+ / 0-)

    Didn't Carter have a steep drop late in the 1980 campaign?

  •  Drum is like the Sullivan-antidote (5+ / 0-)

    One observation he made earlier - and alludes to here - bears emphasis:

    Obama's slide in the polls began before the debate.  

    Drum opined, and I agree, that the slide must be attributable, at least in part, to fading attention to the 47% comments.  People quickly forget that Obama enjoyed his biggest lead right after Romney had one of the worst-2 week stretches imaginable.  No one should have expected that gaffe-inflated lead to last.

  •  No Mention of the Citizens United Ad Blitz Last 3 (2+ / 0-)


    That was always going to be the game changer. This is the first ever CU election for President. I think it is more than a little responsible for the "good days" Mitt has been having when he doesn't do anything newsworthy.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:07:34 PM PDT

  •  Not really a mystery there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    1. A late September surge by Romney for reasons that are (at the moment) still a bit of mystery.
    Romney’s answers and demeanor were exquisitely pitched to the sensitivities of genuine independents and that small, but hardy, band of undecided voters. Ask Joe Biden, whose vigorous assault in last week’s vice presidential debate evoked Jack Nicholson in “The Shining,” how hard it is to attack an opponent without appearing obnoxious to people for whom politics isn’t a passion. If the president mimics his running mate’s style, he will lose tonight’s debate, and probably the election.

    Romney doesn’t need to elevate his game. He just needs to be as assertive, gracious and unflappable as he was the last time -- not an easy task but one we now know he’s capable of achieving. No matter how improved the president is tonight, he’s unlikely to reverse Romney’s momentum.
    Greenberg is releasing new research today backing up that point — and counseling Obama on how to prevent it from happening. Greenberg says dial sessions he conducted during the debate indicated that independents and unmarried women — two key constituencies — were unmoved when Obama talked about the progress of the last four years or when his surrogates said variations of: “Give him more time to finish the job.”
    Romney is successfully exploting this, Greenberg says, with his heavy emphasis on his five point plan for the middle class, which also tests well in his polling. Romney has also made gains by contrasting that with the notion that continuing the status quo is unacceptable: “We can’t afford another four years like the last four years.”

    This explains Romney’s gains. For months he operated from the flawed assumption that he could win by making the race all about Obama. Romney began surging only when he broke through at the debate with an affirmative case for his own agenda — because voters began entertaining the idea that Romney represents change, Greenberg says.

    Has me really down today

    "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

    by eXtina on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:24:00 PM PDT

  •  dish-head bleg (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward, Catte Nappe

    Sullivan's blog is the Dish.

    Denizens of his blog are dish-heads.

    A bleg is a request ("beg") made by a blogger to their audience.

    A bleg by Andrew Sullivan to his audience is a dish-head bleg.

    Prison rape is not funny.

    by social democrat on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 12:38:38 PM PDT

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