Just saw this little nugget from Mother Jones' Kevin Drum come across the feed and I thought I'd share it with you.
This race was always going to be close. The fundamentals have favored the President for a while.
Over the jump we go.
Three things to consider:
Remind yourself of this:
1. A late September surge by Romney for reasons that are (at the moment) still a bit of mystery.
2. Reversion to the mean. Obama was never going to win the election by five or six points, and his recent drop has been baked into the cake for a long time. His big lead was mostly an artifact of stupid mistakes by Romney, and eventually Romney recovered from them.
3.The media freakout over Obama's debate demeanor.
The consensus of the political science models is an Obama win by maybe two points or so.Oh, there's a bonus Andrew Sullivan quote. Say this one out loud in a shrieky voice:
Here's a dishhead bleg: when was the last time that a sitting president in a re-election campaign lost six percentage points in the polls in two weeks in October?And if anyone can explain to me what a "dishhead bleg" is, I'd be much obliged.
See you at the debate!