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Thanks to a gigantic polling dump from the YouGov organization (but not traditional polling...more on that after the jump), we reach a new single-day polling record with (gulp!) 85 separate surveys.

Half of them, however, came from that YouGov massive release of data from two dozen states. However, and this is worth noting, these are not traditional polls. They are "callbacks" of people who were surveyed online last month. As such, they are useful to look at how those folks have shifted their preferences since September, but the caveat that these are not unique samples should be remembered.

We'll delve into those numbers, and the national numbers, in a bit. For now, on to the numbers:

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 47 (RV)

NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 41 (RV)

NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Romney 50, Obama 46

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47


ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 43

CALIFORNIA (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 39

COLORADO (We Ask America--R): Romney 48, Obama 47

COLORADO (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 45

CONNECTICUT (YouGov): Obama 53, Romney 39

FLORIDA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47

GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 44

ILLINOIS (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 38

INDIANA (Rasmussen): Romney 54, Obama 41

INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 53, Obama 41

IOWA (We Ask America--R): Obama 49, Romney 46

IOWA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46

MARYLAND (YouGov): Obama 58, Romney 37

MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): Obama 57, Romney 42

MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 36

MICHIGAN (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 42

MINNESOTA (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 44

MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 42

NEVADA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 45

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk): Obama 47, Romney 47

NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Obama 51, Romney 43

NEW JERSEY (YouGov): Obama 54, Romney 41

NEW YORK (YouGov): Obama 59, Romney 35

NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov): Romney 49, Obama 48

OHIO (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama 50, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 44

TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 52, Obama 43

TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 55, Obama 41

VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 46, Romney 45

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama 54, Romney 40

WASHINGTON (YouGov): Obama 55, Romney 36

WISCONSIN (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 47

DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 44, Richard Carmona (D) 38

CA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 35

CT-SEN (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 42, Linda McMahon (R) 40

FL-SEN (Univ. of North Florida): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 50, Connie Mack IV (R) 40

FL-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 42

IN-SEN (YouGov): Richard Mourdock (R) 45, Joe Donnelly (D) 41

MA-SEN (YouGov): Elizabeth Warren (D) 46, Sen. Scott Brown (R) 39

MD-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 54, Dan Bongino (R) 30

MI-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 49, Pete Hoekstra (R) 39

MN-SEN (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 58, Kurt Bills (R) 30

MN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 55, Kurt Bills (R) 32

MO-SEN (Kiley and Company for the McCaskill campaign): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 52, Todd Akin (R) 38

MO-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47, Todd Akin (R) 42

MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48, Denny Rehberg (R) 48

NV-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42, Shelley Berkley (D) 36

NJ-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 55, Joe Kyrillos (R) 37

NJ-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Robert Menendez (D) 49, Joe Kyrillos (R) 32

NY-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 55, Wendy Long (R) 25

OH-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48, Josh Mandel (R) 43

PA-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 45

PA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48, Tom Smith (R) 41

TN-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 48, Mark Clayton (D) 27

TX-SEN (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 51, Paul Sadler (D) 36

VA-SEN (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 42, George Allen (R) 42

WA-SEN (YouGov): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 55, Michael Baumgartner (R) 36

WI-SEN (YouGov): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48, Tommy Thompson (R) 43


IN-GOV (YouGov): Mike Pence (R) 49, John Gregg (D) 38

MO-GOV (YouGov): Gov. Jay Nixon (D) 54, Dave Spence (R) 36

NH-GOV (Suffolk): Maggie Hassan (D) 41, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 38, John Babiarz (L) 4

NC-GOV (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 52, Walter Dalton (D) 38

NC-GOV (YouGov): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (D) 34

WA-GOV (Rasmussen): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 45

WA-GOV (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47, Rob McKenna (R) 44

WA-GOV (YouGov): Jay Inslee (D) 49, Rob McKenna (R) 39


CA-21 (Moore Information for the Valadao campaign): David Valadao (R) 53, John Hernandez (D) 33

CA-30 (Feldman Group for the Sherman campaign): Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 51, Rep. Howard Berman (D) 26

CA-30 (Kimball Political Consulting--R): Rep. Brad Sherman (D) 32, Rep. Howard Berman (D) 26

CA-36 (Finkelstein and Associates for the Bono Mack campaign): Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) 55, Raul Ruiz (D) 38

CA-36 (PPP for Democracy for America): Raul Ruiz (D) 47, Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) 46

FL-26 (Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC): Joe Garcia (D) 46, Rep. David Rivera (R) 35, Others 3

IL-10 (DCCC IVR--D): Brad Schneider (D) 44, Rep. Bob Dold (R) 43

IL-13 (DCCC IVR--D): David Gill (D) 43, Rodney Davis (R) 37

IL-17 (Public Opinion Strategies for the Schilling campaign): Rep. Bobby Schilling (R) 51, Cheri Bustos (D) 44

ME-02 (Eaton River Strategies for the Raye campaign): Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 47, Kevin Raye (R) 40

ME-02 (Normington Petts and Associates for the Michaud campaign): Rep. Michael Michaud (D) 58, Kevin Raye (R) 33

MN-06 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for the Graves campaign): Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) 47, Jim Graves (D) 45

RI-02 (Aqua Opinion and Research for the Collins campaign): Rep. Jim Langevin (D) 48, Michael Riley (R) 22, Abel Collins (I) 17

A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...

YouGov's online sample of 25 different states should not be viewed necessarily in the same way as the rest of the polls you see in the nightly Wrap. On two counts, it stands separate from traditional polls. One, of course, is the fact that it is an online sample, which automatically makes it suspect in the eyes of some. To this, I point out, as I have done before, that their track record was actually very good in 2010, which earns them a bit of benefit of the doubt as far as the Wrap is concerned.

The second issue, which is a bit more unusual, is the fact that this sample is not a unique sample. This is a "callback" (albeit without the...y'know...calling part) of people who were sampled in September for YouGov's first round of statewide surveys.

So, as a gauge of the election's trajectory, it probably is not advisable to rely too much on the YouGov number. However, they are quite useful in looking at the direction of the race, among this select panel, over the past month. It can also be used to gauge the impact of the debates.

And, on that score, the net result is probably a little more amenable to Obama supporters than most of the recent data would seem to suggest. For one thing, very few states moved sharply in the past five weeks, according to YouGov. Indiana was the biggest mover, with Romney doing 6 points better than he did in September. And, curiously (clearly, it was an R-heavy sample), the only other state to move more than three points was Wisconsin, which went 4 points in Obama's direction.

As for all the other 23 states, they moved no more than three points in either direction, with nearly as many moving in Obama's direction as moved in Romney's direction:

Movement in leading margin from September to October, YouGov surveys:

Romney +3: Missouri, Illinois, Virginia

Romney +2: Colorado, Texas, Nevada, Pennsylvania

Romney +1: Tennessee, Iowa, Georgia, Florida

No Change: Minnesota, Michigan

Obama +1: Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, North Carolina, Connecticut, Arizona

Obama +2: California, New York

Obama +3: Massachusetts, Washington

YouGov's numbers, on balance, look a great deal better than the balance of the polling data for the day, which included two particularly nasty national polls (one of which, of course, was our own Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll). However, if that poll and the Gallup poll moved away from Obama, the Ipsos-Reuters and IBD/TIPP tracking polls actually moved incrementally in the president's direction, giving us essentially a wash for the day. If you are a believer in polling averages, today's average (Romney +1.2) is about a single percentage point worse than yesterday's average.

And, just to ramp up the confusion, how about the House of Ras? Even as their national tracking poll ticked in Mitt Romney's direction (going back to Romney +2), their "swing state" subsample actually ticked two points the other way, giving Obama his first lead since just after the first debate. So, the polling noise and dissonance is just overwhelming today.

In other polling news...

  • Speaking of that Gallup poll, there is an interesting little data nugget buried in their polling memo today. In their write-up of Romney's four point lead with likely voters, they do a complete demographic breakdown of the poll (eliminating undecideds, for some odd reason). They then compare it to their final poll in 2008, in order to show where the erosion in Obama's support can be found. In so doing, they do raise a real question: their regional breakdown shows the president up in every region of the country, except for the South. In the South, Obama trailed by 22 points. If that is true, of course, then that would put a bit of a damper on the meaning of a national lead for Mitt Romney, would it not? Food for thought...
  • Looking at YouGov's downballot stuff, it is very much a mixed bag. They do note that three Senate races moved markedly, and all of them moved in the direction of the Democrats. These were the Connecticut race (where Chris Murphy now holds a narrow edge in YouGov's panel), the Massachusetts race (where YouGov's panel gave Elizabeth Warren a seven-point edge), and, most notably, the Wisconsin race (where Tammy Baldwin went from a handful of points behind to a five-point lead). If there is a bummer in the data for Democrats, it is that they pour a little bit of cold water on two races that the Democrats got great data from in the past few days: Arizona and Nevada.
  • A sign we are getting closer to the election? How about an even dozen House polls today, none of which was a public poll. Campaigns are setting some narratives, to be sure. Probably the biggest surprise is the DCCC's poll in the GOP-held IL-13 (held by the retiring Tim Johnson), where they found their nominee David Gill staked to a 6-point lead. Probably the most amusing contrast is in the California "low desert" region, where longtime Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack is either down by a point or up 17 points, depending on the poll. Guess that one is begging for a public poll, huh?

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:25 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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