Mitt Romney is in serious trouble in Virginia and he doesn't even realize it. He is like a hound dog barking up a tree where the game, "small varmints if you will", has already been gone for a hour. I am not going to tell you that the polls are skewed. Polls have margins of error. If I see a poll that has Obama at 49 and Romney at 49 with a 4% margin of error, then I can rightfully make the claim that the poll says Obama may be up 53-45. But that's pure silliness. Let's look at some math that isn't a "bunch of stuff" but the product of a 4 year build up by the Obama campaign: voter registrations.
Yesterday was the deadline for registration in Virginia. As the final registration numbers are getting tallied, we can see that women make up a disproportionate percentage of this year's Virginia electorate.
* 2,924,019 registered voters in Virginia are female - or 54% of voters
* 1,140,146 registered voters are women 40 and under - or 21% of voters
* 2,122,152 registered voters are 40 and under - or 39% of voters
Women turn out at higher rates than men AND there are more female voters to begin with this year. If you see a poll sampling men and women equally in Virginia, just shout Malarkey and move on with your day. Join me under Wonder Woman's golden-orange lasso of truth for more numbers.
Below are some updates of numbers I posted in an earlier diary. I have built out a hearty data set so I can model the returns on election night and not have to wait for Fairfax County to get around to looking at their absentee ballots before I have a clue what is happening. Therefore, if you have any questions about Virginia voting trends in any localities around the state, from 1996 to present, I can probably answer them. Overall the new registration numbers are very, very favorable to President Obama.
Looking at the data below and comparing it to the sample composition of polls showing Obama and Romney roughly tied, suggests to me that Obama is ahead 4-5 points in Virginia, which is in line with his most favorable polling here.
* There are 386,107 net new voters in Virginia since the 2008 election through October 16, 2012, a statewide increase of 7.67%. But where are the new voters?
* Of those, 250,139 new voters are in localities that Barack Obama won, or 64.8% of all new voters. Obama's winning margin in Virginia was 234,000 votes in 2008.
* 227,398 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 2,000 votes. Only 87,599 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 2,000 votes.
* 213,563 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 5,000 votes. Only 52,878 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 5,000 votes.
* 199,725 new voters are in localities that Obama won by greater than 10,000 votes. Only 32,054 new voters are in localities that McCain won by greater than 10,000 votes. Is it clear which side is doing the bulk of the voter registration yet?
* The largest jumps in registrations are in Northern Virginia, which should be very strong for Obama. The 5 localities below represent 148,222 new voters. Obama won these areas by a combined 227,098 votes last time out, which nearly equals his victory margin from 2008.
- Fairfax County = 51,748 7.59% increase over 2008
- Prince William County = 35,763 16.43% increase
- Loudon County = 30,992 17.27% increase (Caveat-Obama 54-45)
- Arlington County = 19,783 13.25% increase
- Alexandria City = 9,936 10.18% increase
* The largest voter increases by percentage from 2008 are in Dem Strongholds. I really did not expect this after the magnitude of the effort in 2008.
- Williamsburg City 27.96% above 2008 = POTUS stops in with pizza!
- Fredericksburg City 23.56%
- Lexington City 19.58%
- Loudon County (one to watch) and Prince William are next best
- Charlottesville City 15.74%
Finally THE ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUESTS GENDER GAP
To Date 136,275 women have requested absentee ballots versus 111,508 men. This mirrors the 55% female electorate some of the smarter polling firms are using here. I suspect VP candidate Paul "forcible rape" Ryan and Governor Bob "Transvaginal Wand" McDonnell may cause a greater than usual turn out gap between men and women. I would not be surprised to see women composing 56 or rounding up to 57 percent of the final electorate.
I'll update the numbers in this diary if significant new registration totals come in before election day.