Online betting marketss seem to agree with pundits that President Obama scored an important victory in last night's debate. Matt Sledge reports Obama Reelection Odds Jump In Prediction Markets After Second Debate, showing the minute by minute increase in our Presidents odds on PredictWise, an aggregate index of betting markets, rising from 64% to 67% as the debate proceeded.
NEW YORK -- After a confident debate performance on Tuesday night, President Barack Obama's chances of getting reelected got a measurable bump -- at least according to the users of Intrade and other prediction market services.
PredictWise, a service that aggregates those markets, which themselves aggregate the "wisdom of the crowds," kept a minute-by-minute tally of Obama's stock last night. Almost as soon as the debate began and Obama unveiled his new tough-on-Mitt persona, the market gods smiled upon him.
Bettors, perhaps reinforced by positive pundit reactions, continued to be bullish into Wednesday. Obama's odds of reelection, according to the markets are now about 67 percent, as opposed to 64 percent the day before the second debate.
A plot for all of October is show below tracking Romney's rise from 20% to a high of about 38% on October 13.
This last plot apparently does not show an increase for Romney just prior to the debate as Romney's hourly plot starts 36 at 8:00 p.m. Oct. 16.
Intrade's contract share price for President Obama's reelection moved up 2.2% today to $6.49 for a $10.00 payout, which they interpret as meaning Obama as a 64.9% chance to win.
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
64.9% CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.49 / share
Today's Change: +$0.14 (+2.2%)
For comparison, Nate Silver says "President Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College were 64.8 percent as of Tuesday’s FiveThirtyEight forecast, down slightly from 66.0 percent on Monday."
Silvers model does not reflect anything from the debate and ironically, Obama's probability was brought down by the PPP poll sponsored by Daily Kos showing Romney ahead by 4 points, and Gallup's tracking poll showing Romney with a 6 point lead today.
Mr. Obama’s poorest set of numbers came from a pair of national polls. A weekly survey conducted by Public Policy Polling for the blog Daily Kos had Mitt Romney ahead by four points among likely voters. So did the Gallup national tracking poll, which had Mr. Romney hitting 50 percent of the vote for the first time.
The polls will take several days to start reflecting any turn around brought about by last nights debate, but our prospects look good.
12:34 PM PT: reports President Obama did substantially better than Mitt Romney in last night's debate.
Forty-eight percent of registered voters gave the victory to Obama, while 33 percent say Romney prevailed in the Tuesday debate, the online poll found.
The poll reflects the broad consensus of debate observers who said Obama's forceful approach gave him the upper hand over Romney, who was widely seen as the victor in their first matchup on October 3.
"Clearly the debate was a bit of a turnaround for Obama. He put in a much stronger performance than he did in the first debate and it's showing in the numbers," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.