Obama went from 64.8% odds to 65.7% overnight . http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.comHis site predicts this electoral vote breakdown:
O: 287.2 v. R: 250.8About last night's debate's possible effects, Nate wrote this earlier today:
The FiveThirtyEight forecast had Mr. Obama as a 64.8 percent favorite to win the Electoral College in advance of the debate, but it will take several days for it to incorporate any of its effects.http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...
Prediction markets, which had nearly identical odds to the FiveThirtyEight model in advance of the debate, had Mr. Obama’s stock improving slightly over the course of the evening and put his odds at about 67 percent as of midnight on Wednesday.
I'll take a one point bump from Nate Silver any day of the week, especially as it brings us whisper-close to 2-to1 odds again. Guess we'll know more later in the week.
Keep up the GOTV! IF WE LEAVE IT ALL ON THE ROAD, we will win.
p.s. Nate posted results late because he was on the Daily Show tonight.
On the The Daily Show, Nate said this:
Stewart: "Right now, who is statistically winning the race for president between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney?Here's the clip (h/t jakedog42):
Nate Silver: "So we have Obama as a modest favorite right now based on what's happening in the electoral college where still in states like Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, that would give Obama 270 electoral votes, he seems to be just a tiny bit ahead."
Stewart: "Okay, and how about...now?"
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