We're all a little hyper about this election with good reasons. Romney's future is not one I want any part of. But the period since the first presidential debate at Denver has been tough on us minute by minute diehards.
And, Nate Silver, appears to have picked the worst night to take a break from the number intensity so he could spend an evening flogging his book with John Stewart. That's all right Nate, things are looking up.
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We're still a long way from where we were in the wonderful days when the Mitt Romney wrecking crew appeared to have little more than low single joint chances in Nate's 538. The bottom seemed to be falling out.
I didn't mark the low, but it was in the range of 60 percent for an Obama win and the prospects seemed to be dimming. But the numbers started creeping back up, largely on the strength of state polling which is looking much stronger for Obama than it did.
As of 11:38 p.m. Thursday night, Nate changed the odds of an Obama victory to 70.4 percent with Romney's chances have fallen under 30 percent to 29.4 percent. There's no big stretch out on the popular vote with Obama projected at 50.3 percent and Romney at 49.7.
The round about midnight 538 forecast on electoral votes was at 291.6 for Obama and 246.4 for Romney. In my view we're starting to regain some breathing room. Also we're at a point where Nate's Now cast is slightly better than his Nov. 6 forecast.
That's actually a good sign, because previously the Nowcast was weaker than than the Nov. 6 forecast which in itself seemed to some to be fading.
This forecast was timed at 11:29 EDT Thursday and Nate did not include a rationale for what moved him as such. However, earlier in the day, he questioned the accuracy of the Gallup Poll, despite his high respect for the organization, saying that in the past when it has been seriously at variance with other major national polls, that's been an indicator that something has gone wrong somewhere.
So rest easier for a few more hours.