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I do not know if this was diaried before. Found this interview in the New york Magazine a week ago.

More after the squiggly thingie.

As per the texas census

Overall, Texas' population grew to more than 25 million, awarding the nation's second most populous state four more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Hispanics accounted for 65% of the state's growth since 2000, while non-Hispanic whites experienced the smallest increase of any group, just 4.2%. The black population grew by 22%.
It gets more stark when you look at the young population
But natural Latino population increases — more Latinos born in the state than dying — were the main engine, he says. For the first time in recent history, Texas is less than half non-Hispanic white, dipping to 45%, the data shows. Hispanics make up about 38% of the total population.
The state's burgeoning Hispanic population mirrors what's happening across the USA, Murdock says. "The Texas of today is the U.S. of tomorrow," he says.
Another telling statistic: Texas added nearly 1 million children under 18 — 95% of them Hispanic, says William Frey, a demographer for the Brookings Institution. "That's the future of the state," he says. "It's a diverse one."
And Bush's quote
“It’s a math question,” he tells me. “Four years from now, Texas is going to be a so-called blue state. Imagine Texas as a blue state, how hard it would be to carry the presidency or gain control of the Senate.”
I think it's panic time for the repubs... Its now or never. And looking at the poll numbers now

It looks like more than a 50 point lead among the community.

The poll showed Mr. Obama leading Mr. Romney among Hispanic voters nationwide 69 percent to 21 percent; in 2008, Mr. Obama took 67 percent of the Hispanic vote, to 31 percent for Senator John McCain.
Bring on the future!!!!
Poll

Texas will be blue in

28%100 votes
64%230 votes
7%26 votes

| 356 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Could happen (5+ / 0-)

    Purple more likely though.

    If you have more than you need but don't have empathy you must be a republican.

    by Cecile on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 08:45:22 AM PDT

  •  Work'n on 2012 as hard as I can Jeb (6+ / 0-)

    How you doin' on Florida?

    Republicans: They hate us for our Freedom.

    by mikeconwell on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 08:49:16 AM PDT

  •  No Presidency for you, Jeb Bush! n/t (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chandu, MaikeH, Calamity Jean, htowngenie

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 08:51:01 AM PDT

  •  If Texas goes Blue in 2016... (9+ / 0-)

    ...you can kiss the current version of the Republican Party goodby.  Adios.  Sayonara.  They'll have to start sounding a lot more Democratic to ever hope to regain the Presidency.  They might control the House and/or Senate from time to time, but they'll have to live with a far more liberal Supreme Court after the likes of Scalia and Thomas expire.

    The road to Hell is paved with pragmatism.

    by TheOrchid on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 08:53:58 AM PDT

  •  The math says otherwise (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Brian A

    McCain beat Obama by 10.76% in Texas. He won white people by an astonishing 47% (73-26). Democrats don't have to win the white vote but they at least have to be in the same ballpark.

    •  The same margin among whites would (0+ / 0-)

      only give him a 5% edge or so in 2016 right?

      Conservatism = greed, hate, fear and ignorance

      by Joe B on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:51:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  OTOH, Obama is winning non-white voters about 3:1 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sebastianguy99

      If non-Hispanic whites are only 45% of the overall Texas population today, it's just a question of when do the 95% Hispanic children mature enough to come of voting age, and some smart Democrat (who may or may not be named Castro) organizes the state.

      The problem for Republicans is the Gordian Knot that is their coalition.  If they switch courses to try better competing for Hispanic votes, they're going to alienate the Joe Arpaio White Republicans.

    •  Not true! 26% is plenty enough (0+ / 0-)

      The challenge is not the white vote, but the Latino vote. Yes, 30% would be much better, but the idea that we need to be close to parity isn't factual.

      Kos has covered this several times already, but there are 2.7 million eligible Latino voters that are not registered/voting.

      President Obama lost Texas by less than a million votes. There is a pool of nearly 3 million voters untapped. We know that pool of voters, if they vote, tend to vote Democratic at about a 65-75% rate.

      Jeb Bush knows what those of us on the ground in Texas know.

      "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

      by sebastianguy99 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 10:58:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  "26% is plenty enough" (0+ / 0-)

        You wrote that, seriously?

        •  Yes the idea that in order to win a.... (0+ / 0-)

          ...majority-minority state the Democratic nominee needs to "be in the same ball park" with white voters is not true.

          Apparently we disagree that the 900k+ vote deficit must be made up by increasing our share of white voters.

          I would have been interested in how you came to your conclusion, but you didn't offer anything in the way of counterpoint.

          ...and yes, I am serious.

          "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

          by sebastianguy99 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 07:33:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Here are the numbers from 2008 (0+ / 0-)

            Rounded off:

            8 mil cast votes
            5.0 mil were White
            1.7 mil Hispanic
            1.0 mil Black

            Turnout was about the same for Whites and Blacks (mid 60s) but Hispanics trailed as usual (around 45%). Therefore, in order to get to that 900k increase you'd have to see a turnout around 90% among Hispanics and with an increase in the Dem share of that vote. Note in Texas too that Hispanic men almost split their vote among McCain and Obama so you're also talking more about an increase in Hispanic women voting.

            These numbers are from real turnout and exit polls, which could be way off, but even a cursory examination shows that Texas, or any state, where Whites are voting Republican in these kind of numbers presents a daunting challenge.

            •  We lost Texas by 900k votes, period (0+ / 0-)

              As kos and others have pointed out, there is a pool of some 2.7 eligible Latinos who are not registered nand didn't vote. Like kos, I believe we can win by registering, and GOTV this pool of Texans.

              Again, even with the numbers you posted, we lost by less than a million votes. We know that we have a pool of Democratic-leaning citizens that did not vote and they aren't white. The share of white voters is decreasing. Look at the census, not just the exit polls.

              I don't get why the math isn't sinking in for you, or what part of majority-minority you don't understand, but to it simply isn't true that we need more votes from the minority white population to win.

              As I said before, we need to register and turnout our constituencies. If we do that work then there are enough Latino, and Asian citizens who currently aren't registered/voting, but are eligible, to overcome a deficit of 76-24 in the minority (and shrinking) white voting bloc.

              Those of us who are actually in the state and involved in these efforts understand the state's demographics and the voting math. We will increase registration and turnout this cycle, but much more work needs to be done. Thanks for your concern and good thoughts though.

              "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

              by sebastianguy99 on Sat Oct 20, 2012 at 01:00:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  While I like the idea (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LostBuckeye

    of a blue Texas, I think we Democrats should not feel the Hispanic vote is "in the bag".  Hispanics are overwhelmingly Catholic and usually very devote.  They fully follow the teachings of the Catholic church and the church is anti-choice, anti-gay marriage, and anti-birth control.  I have a feeling that once the immigration issue is off the table and the racist rhetoric is toned down that Hispanics will start voting Republican - maybe not a majority of them, but I don't think they will be as reliably blue as everyone thinks.

    •  well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xapulin, Calamity Jean, KayCeSF

      Even if the immigration question gets settled, Republicans aren't going to stop being on the wrong side of discrimination for years to come.

    •  Mostly, I agree with you. (0+ / 0-)

      Same here in NM.  That immigration issue is a biggie on their list for why they will vote Obama, but if it is dealt with under Obama, what then?

      I would rather spend my life searching for truth than live a single day within the comfort of a lie. ~ John Victor Ramses

      by KayCeSF on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:12:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Then we'll still be hated for being brown. (3+ / 0-)

        We must use what we have
        to build what we need. -Adrienne Rich

        by Xapulin on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 10:23:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thank you. The idea that Latinos aren't perceptive (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KayCeSF, Xapulin, LostBuckeye

          ...enough to understand what animates these anti-immigration stances is almost laughable.

          I bet those kids in Arizona who were denied their ethnic studies classes learned a lot more about Republicans than their stance on immigration.

          Latinos also favor a strong safety net. Latinos fight in or military, so foreign policy is relevant as well.

          I really find it shocking that any Progressive would have to ask if Latinos are basically only in it for immigration. That implies they are secretly Republican or very low information voters.

          "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

          by sebastianguy99 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:05:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  To be clear I was not implying that Hispanics only (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xapulin

            rely on the immigration issue to vote Democratic.

            I am very aware, as well, that many Hispanics in my state are from military families, and many have voted Republican in the past.  I think after the mess in Iraq and Obama having to do more in Afghanistan to make up for the Bush Administration, that all voters are very aware that Bush caused many deaths that were unnecessary.  That is a big issue in NM for military families.  It is why so many Hispanics and Native Americans in NM supported General Wesley Clark. They liked that he had a superb military history, but also that he was against the war in Iraq from the beginning.  And that's why so many also turned out for Barack Obama in '08!  So yes, foreign policy issues are important to them and they pay attention.  

            However, from all I'm hearing, immigration is a top concern for Hispanics and understandably so.  Also, health care is an issue here!

            I would rather spend my life searching for truth than live a single day within the comfort of a lie. ~ John Victor Ramses

            by KayCeSF on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:37:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I never said that Latinos (0+ / 0-)

            were low information voters I said they were catholic and follow the teachings of the old men in Rome (full disclosure I'm a practicing catholic, and I frequently rant on the old men in Rome).  Here in CA back in 08 the Latinos supported proposition 8 (to define marriage between a man and woman); I've not seen any statistics on prolife vs prochoice, but I would not be surprised to see that a majority of Latinos are prolife.  Which to me means that if the GOP tones down the blatent racism and the anti-immigant rhetoric then I think the GOP will peel off some Latino voters, especially if the Dems take them for granted.

            •  I see Latinos as a more complex voting block. (0+ / 0-)

              I think one mistake many make is failing to understand the differences between the various communities that constitute the "Latino" community.

              One example is on immigration. The issue doesn't resonate the same with Cubans the way it does with, say, Mexicans.

              Without understanding the various communities, it is not a good idea to theorize as some have done in the comments.

              "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

              by sebastianguy99 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 07:19:55 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  So, let's get Obama back in office, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xapulin

          state to state!  This chit has to stop, and the best thing we can do is get to the polls and vote the Republicans out of office!

          How I wish we could take the House back!

          I would rather spend my life searching for truth than live a single day within the comfort of a lie. ~ John Victor Ramses

          by KayCeSF on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:45:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Devout (0+ / 0-)

      For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

      by Anne Elk on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:19:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kos listed some recent polls on Hispanic views (7+ / 0-)

      toward gay rights and marriage equality and the results were somewhat surprising. Hispanics were actually more supportive of gay rights and marriage equality than the national average. I believe Hispanic support for marriage equality was 53% while the national average was 51%.

      About 59% said they supported gay rights.

      Moreover, things are changing rapidly on social issues in Mexico where many of the Hispanics are originally from. The Distrito Federal, which encompasses Mexico City and its environs and is the social, cultural, political and economic center of the country, legalized same-sex marriage in 2010. They have full marriage equality with rights (unlike in the USA) recognized by the federal government.

      Then the Mexican Supreme Court ruled that all states in Mexico must recognize same-sex marriages from Mexico City. So in effect, all of Mexico has same-sex marriage with the proviso that you have to get married in Mexico City.

      So Mexico is now way ahead of the USA on marriage equality.

      That hispanics are so conservative culturally is something of a right-wing myth that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

       

    •  Not necessarily (6+ / 0-)

      Look at what happened in CA if you want to see what might happen.

      Pete Wilson, the Republicans and Prop 187 pushed the Latino vote to Democrats for good and Republicans have yet to recover.

  •  Does this mean ole Jeb needs a Texas ranch? (0+ / 0-)

    I can just see it now... real estate moguls finding ole Jeb a new residence in Texas.  

    I would rather spend my life searching for truth than live a single day within the comfort of a lie. ~ John Victor Ramses

    by KayCeSF on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:06:11 AM PDT

  •  Not a sure thing (0+ / 0-)

    the President won 63% of hispanics in 2008, but John Kerry only won 50%.  As knitwithpurpose says above, national polling shows Hispanics to be pretty conservative on social issues.  If the Republicans could ever get the Tom Tancredo's of the world to shut up, and opposed xenophobic policies like the Arizona law instead of passing them, I think Hispanics would become a core conservative constituency.

    "He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." - J.S. Mill

    by dmsarad on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:09:46 AM PDT

  •  Jeb Bush has been sounding the alarm bell (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Calamity Jean, sebastianguy99

    inside the GOP for a while. I guess he is hoping that the 2012 debacle for his Party will prompt a come-to-Jesus moment for the powers that be. I cannot guess what that will look like but the current primary system is a disaster for the Party. To win, candidates have to marginalize themselves. Not a recipe for success. My hunch is that the rules will be changed to give a lot more power to super delegates but that still doesn't help them with the House and Senate.

    For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

    by Anne Elk on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:25:54 AM PDT

    •  It will not be. The 2016 nominee will just say... (0+ / 0-)

      ...things "better". It'll be the same ol' tax cuts and deregulation as always. At best, the nominee might be allowed to be on the right side of marriage equality or drug policy. I see drug policy as a real opportunity for the Republicans.

      "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

      by sebastianguy99 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:09:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Can't keep losing forever. (0+ / 0-)

        This discussion started in the context of seeing a large Red State turn blue. So that was the point of discussion. Sure, if it was win-some/lose-some, they probably would stay like that. But Bush is pointing out that they are on the road to permanent minority status. Texas turning blue would not permit the kind of business as usual approach you mention.

        For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

        by Anne Elk on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 03:07:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, I'm saying they will not learn when they lose (0+ / 0-)

          I'm actually on the ground here in Texas. Sorry you have deemed my contribution as out of context.

          Have a good one.

          "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

          by sebastianguy99 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 07:11:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  "Imagine Texas as a blue state, (6+ / 0-)

    how hard it would be to carry the presidency or gain control of the Senate.”

    Uhm Jeb, only hard for the GOP.  It sounds like it would be EASY for the Democrats!  And we are looking forward to it!

    We here in Texas have been saying this a long time.  We need to turn the state Lege, Governorship, and down to the local offices (already on the way in many places).  Is anyone at the DCCC or National Democratic Party listenin?  We could use some help down here.

    You may start by helping Paul Sadler for US Senate.  He was endorsed today over "Crazy Troll" Ted Cruz by the f-ing Dallas Morning News!  They are known for endorsing every Republican under the sun, and can't swallow Cruz and his brand of nutso.  And Sadler is a decent fellow, respected and has legislative experience.

    Paul Sadler for Senate:
    http://www.sadlerforsenate.com/...

    I'm part of the "bedwetting bunch of website Democrat base people (DKos)." - Rush Limbaugh, 10/16/2012 Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

    by tom 47 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:28:33 AM PDT

  •  Too early (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MadGeorgiaDem

    2020? I think a good chance.

    Either way Republicans are doomed. Especially if Romney wins the popular vote but loses the EC. They will repeal the EC, and it will be the single worst mistake they have ever made and likely cost them the Presidency for the rest of every single human being who is alive on that day's life.

    "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained." - Mark Twain

    by Moon Mop on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:31:04 AM PDT

    •  Moon Mop, I'm intrigued (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sebastianguy99

      I'm not arguing with you; I just would like to hear your thoughts on this.  My gut tells me that the EC is saving us this year for a couple of reasons.  First, only certain states are really in play, so we can financially concentrate our efforts there.  Why is this relevant?  Because the GOP, thanks to Citizens United, can so greatly outspend us.  If we had to campaign in every state, we'd get killed financially.  Now, don't misunderstand me; I dream of the 50 state strategy becoming our standard approach, not the exception.

      My other thought is that the GOP typically wins the red states by larger margins than we win the blue states.  And of course, purple states are close by definition.  So, the state level popular vote means more to them because they can accumulate larger margins in "their" states, another phrase I hope to be able to bury some day.

      So, I guess my questions are: can we replicate our awesome ground game across all 5 states to drive up the overall popular vote?  And secondly, I know we outnumber them nationally in voter registrations: is that why you think we win?

      •  I'd include Georgia on the new swing state list (0+ / 0-)

        Arizona, Georgia, and Texas I think will join the list in '16 and '20.

        "There is nothing more dreadful than the habit of doubt. Doubt separates people. It is a poison that disintegrates friendships and breaks up pleasant relations. It is a thorn that irritates and hurts; it is a sword that kills.".. Buddha

        by sebastianguy99 on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:11:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The EC is likely the firewall (0+ / 0-)

        For Obama.

        I'm not sold on him losing the popular vote yet, but it is looking like an increasing possibility with each passing day.

        But in terms of the future? All the cities in the country will vote for the Democratic candidate. And moving forward if Texas votes for the Democratic candidate or even goes 52-48, I can't see how that translates to ever being a popular vote victory for the Republican candidate.

        You have the entire Northeast, Pacific Northwest, California, Texas, and every city in between. It's too much to make up in the south and middle sections of the country, especially when you factor in certain non cities but suburbs of major cities such as suburbs of Atlanta, Charlotte, Phoenix, all too likely to shift to a more democratic trend.

        Think about it. If it goes by popular vote only, the Democratic candidate would likely not even have to win in these areas. Keeping it within 3 or 4 points would/should be enough to cancel out anything else, when you all ready have the major cities in your column and large chunks of major populated areas.

        Even with the EC kept in place though, Republicans are headed for an uphill battle in the next 10-20 years.

        "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained." - Mark Twain

        by Moon Mop on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:23:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Re: the Electoral College (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Moon Mop

          It's here to stay.

          Why? Because its in the Constitution. Therefore it can only by changed by Constitutional Amendment.

          And how easy is it to do that?
          An Amendment needs to pass BOTH the House AND the Senate by a 2/3 majority. The practical effect of this requirement is that it gives a functioning veto to 1/3 +1 vote.
          In the case of the House you need 290 votes. In the last 10 years neither party has had as many as 260, so you will need bi-partisan co-operation on an Amendment that will change the basic structure of voting in this country for the first time in 200 years. Good luck with that.
          In the case of the Senate, McConnell and the GOP have given us a textbook for obstruction by controlling as few as 41 votes in that body. For an Amendment to get 2/3 all you need is 34 Senators to say "No" and it dies there.

          ....and THEN said Amendment needs to be ratified by 3/4 of the states, currently 38. This means 13 states can kill the Amendment. Soooo.....try going to the New Hampshire legislature saying, "We want you to make yourselves utterly irrelevant to Presidential politics for all time. Pass this Amendment please?"
          Once you get turned down by NH, VT, RI, DE, ND, SD, WY, MT, AK, ME, HI, ID, NE, KS, NV, WV, (that's an odd lot assortment of 15....and counting) where are you going to go?

          Unless you can invoke Article V and call a Constitutional Convention, this won't go anywhere. (And even then, any change would still need 3/4 of the states to go along. That's how the Constitution got enacted in the first place: 9 of the 13 states ratified it, so it was on. Thank you, New Hampshire!)

          Shalom.

          "God has given wine to gladden the hearts of people." Psalm 104:15

          by WineRev on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 11:46:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  And with that (5+ / 0-)

    The Latinos in Texas could then get a lot out of the administration and Dem majority they put in place - better education, better jobs protection, immigration reform, a DREAM act, you name it.

    Sounds like win win to me.

    We get what we want - or what we fail to refuse. - Muhammad Yunus

    by nightsweat on Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:43:37 AM PDT

    •  There are some among the opposition that are aware (0+ / 0-)

      Heck look back to the debates and saying that Rick Perry had a more moderate position than the rest of the field in regards to immigration reform.

      I know, calling any of the positions the Republicans took in the primaries "moderate" is laughable, but either the Republican party will adapt, or die.

      We may see the rise of something like the Libertarian or Tea party or something in its place, but if it continues on its current path and policies it will implode.

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