As we head into the weekend, we were treated to another day filled with data points from which all sides can draw comfort, as well as consternation. In a sign that the cycle is drawing to a close, there is no "Friday light" load of polls this week, as
36 more polls enter into the database. A fair number of them, despite being part of the Friday news dump, are bound to draw serious attention.
And, no, I am not talking about the first (and, undoubtedly, only) poll out of the District of Columbia.
Conservatives (and I say this with a smirk) will be embracing PPP today, as their new post-debate polls actually gave Mitt Romney infinitesimal leads in Iowa and New Hampshire. Those on the left, meanwhile, can look to marginally better national numbers, as well as two polls (albeit sponsored by Democratic groups) giving the president a lead in both North Carolina and Nevada.
The big picture is a muddy one, at best. The early indicators are that the second debate has not matched the first debate in its ability to reshape the polls. But, as I cautioned yesterday, it is way too early to gauge an impact. Indeed, the immediate aftermath of the 1st debate left us with the initial impression that its impact was muted, as well.
More on that in a little bit. For now, though, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 51, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 48, Obama 47 (RV)
NATIONAL (Gravis--R): Romney 46, Obama 44
NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); RV Unavailable at press time
NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 48, Romney 47
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 48, Obama 48
NATIONAL (Univ. of Connecticut): Obama 48, Romney 45
CALIFORNIA (PSRA for Reason-Rupe): Obama 53, Romney 38
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (PPP for Washington City Paper): Obama 88, Romney 8
FLORIDA (CNN/ORC): Romney 49, Obama 48 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 43 (RV)
FLORIDA (Fox News): Romney 48, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 47, Obama 45 (RV)
FLORIDA (Rasmussen): Romney 51, Obama 46
IOWA (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney 54, Obama 43
NEVADA (Mellman Group for Americans United for Change--D): Obama 51, Romney 43
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Romney 49, Obama 48
NORTH CAROLINA (Grove Insight for Project New America--D): Obama 47, Romney 44
NORTH CAROLINA (TelOpinion for the NC Republican Party): Romney 49, Obama 45
OHIO (Fox News): Obama 46, Romney 43 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 41 (RV)
OREGON (SurveyUSA): Obama 49, Romney 42
UTAH (Utah State Univ.): Romney 74, Obama 21
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 47
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 50, Romney 48
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
CA-SEN (PSRA for Reason-Rupe): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 60, Elizabeth Emken (R) 34
HI-SEN (Benenson Strategy Group for the Hirono campaign): Mazie Hirono (D) 56, Linda Lingle (R) 38
MO-SEN (Harstad Research for the DSCC): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 47, Todd Akin (R) 35, Jonathan Dine (L) 8
MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 51, Todd Akin (R) 43
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 49, Josh Mandel (R) 44
PA-SEN (Garin-Hart-Yang for the Casey campaign): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 52, Tom Smith (R) 39
PA-SEN (Susquehanna Research for the PA Republican Party): Tom Smith (R) 48, Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46
UT-SEN (Utah State Univ.): Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) 67, Scott Howell (D) 24
NH-GOV (PPP): Maggie Hassan (D) 45, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43
NC-GOV (TelOpinion for the NC Republican Party): Pat McCrory (R) 51, Walter Dalton (D) 37
UT-GOV (Utah State Univ.): Gov. Gary Herbert (R) 76, Peter Cooke (D) 17
IL-08 (Anzalone-Liszt for the League of Conservation Voters): Tammy Duckworth (D) 54, Rep. Joe Walsh (R) 39
NY-18 (Siena): Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) 49, Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 42
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
For most of the past week to 10 days, the polling trend has been pretty clear-cut. The president was more than holding his own in the swing states, which gave solace to Democrats even as his once-modest lead in the national polls went away.
Today, as it happens, we get a dose of data to the contrary: For the first time since Oct. 8, it is President Obama who takes the "lead" in the national polling average, with seven polls logged today giving Obama a razor-thin edge (0.1 percent). Of course, if you take Gallup's outsized Romney LV lead out of the rotation, Obama's lead goes up to 1.2 percent. But no matter whether we are talking about a "lead" of 0.1 percent or a "lead" of 1.2 percent, it is probably proper to refer to the national polling as, for all intents and purposes, tied.
Indeed, for the past two weeks, calling the national polling tied would be more than justified, as you can see below:
Average of released national polls, 2012 presidential election, October
Mon 10/1: Obama +3.7
Tue 10/2: Obama +3.3
Wed 10/3: Obama +4.4
Thu 10/4: Obama +4.0
Fri 10/5: Obama +3.0
Mon 10/8: Obama +0.4
Tue 10/9: Romney +0.6
Wed 10/10: Romney +0.8
Thu 10/11: Romney +1.3
Fri 10/12: Romney +1.0
Mon 10/15: Romney +0.9
Tue 10/16: Romney +1.2
Wed 10/17: Romney +0.2
Thu 10/18: Romney +1.2
Fri 10/19: Obama +0.1
Meanwhile, the swing state polls look better for Romney than they have, but even there, the evidence is far beyond conflicting. Democrats produced polls in Nevada showing the president not only leading, but comfortably. Most notably, the firm that produced that poll (Mellman Group) was the only pollster anywhere near the fairway in 2010, when every pollster was predicting a Harry Reid defeat in a race he eventually won by a surprisingly comfortable 5-point margin. Meanwhile, another Democratic pollster shocked everyone by showing President Obama still tethered to a narrow advantage in North Carolina, a state the traditional media had long conceded to the GOP.
That said, there were some positive signs for the Republicans in today's data, as well. Even as CNN showed a tie ball game in Florida (and a wide Obama lead among registered voters), Rasmussen gave Mitt Romney his largest lead to date in Florida. He also compounded that with a three-point lead for the GOP in Virginia. PPP, meanwhile, gave Romney his first leads in a very long while in either Iowa and New Hampshire, albeit by a single point.
Of course, we are also nowhere near the apex of knowing what impact, if any, debate #2 will have on the state of play in the race. After all, it took nearly a week after Denver for Mitt Romney to wrest the national advantage away from the president, and longer than that for him to start looking truly competitive in the battleground polls.
Of course, any Obama "bounce" from Hofstra (if it materializes) could be either amplified or neutralized depending on what happens Monday in Boca Raton. Until then (and really, several days after that), it is probably wise to expect conflicting data points and a fairly unclear narrative about where the electorate will be on the 6th of November.