From reviewing many of this week's swing state polling data, I have plugged those numbers into a working Excel spreadsheet because that how my mind works.
I work on budgets and numbers all day and I can visualize the 2012 Presidential Elections better in a worksheet than on a big U.S. map.
Using the latest seven days of poll data for the swing states from multiple sources, I have worked out what I believe is a fair approximation of where President Obama stands today in the Electoral College.
Nervous but confident as I am this election cycle, I completed this worksheet on my own to reassure myself that what I've been hearing about President Obama's Swing State "Firewall" was true. Many people disagree exactly which states are included in that "Firewall" and I'm hoping to shed some light on the subject.
Below the squiggle is my Electoral College Snapshot if the election is held today.
US Electoral College Prediction showing President Obama ahead 290 to 248 for Mitt Romney
Electoral College projections map for 10-19-12 with Obama winning 290 to 248 for Romney
- Below are some of my state by state observations:
- I've color coded all swing states as "Yellow", then on the left hand side labeled the Romney leaning swing states with "Red", Obama leaning with "Blue" and Swing State Tossups with "Purple" for quick reference.
- Colorado is the biggest change from when I created this worksheet a week ago. Romney looked good in Colorado after his bump in the polls from the 1st Presidential debate. Colorado is still close but last week Romney looked like he might take Colorado although many DaiklyKos members reassure folks that Colorado will ultimately go to Obama. This week's polls seem to bear that out.
- President Obama continues to hold his lead in every poll in Ohio which is the linchpin state where the whole Swing State Firewall holds together.
- This week's polls also show some movement for Obama on the east coast in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida although Romney's poll averages still show him clinging on in those states. Michelle Obama and Jill Biden both visited North Carolina this week.
- Moving up the coast to New Hampshire, President Obama still is holding his own with a narrow lead, so I gave that state to Obama although I've labeled it a Purple Tossup state.
- Wisconsin stays a solid Obama lean swing state with most polls showing him ahead.
- Moving out West, New Mexico stays a strong Obama lean swing state and a surprise is that Arizona may be in play according to a new Rocky Mountain poll.
- Joe Biden's clear win in the only Vice-Presidential debate certainly seemed to have stopped Romney's momentum cold. Yea Joe!
- Many of these poll numbers don't include the full bump that we expect to see from President Obama decisive win in the 2nd Presidential debate.
- Conclusion: My projection, if the election was held today, President Obama would return to the White House with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Mitt Romney.
- Remember to reach success, we have to work hard. The Obama 2012 campaign web site has many ways to get involved. Perhaps the easiest is to sign up for phone calling online (without moving from your computer) to one of the above swing states. It's a awesome online system that you use straight from the Obama web site. An easy way to get involved at one click of the mouse button. Go ahead and pick up that phone today. Try it for GOTV:
http://www.barackobama.com/
U.S. swing states poll average in swing states for U.S. Electoral College Predictions as of 10-19-12. (Note: I have provided this worksheet for the swing states so you can see the poll percentages I'm using in the overall Electoral College totals and you can easily follow my methodology. The two worksheets are linked.)
Any suggestions, comments or second guesses would be appreciated below.