Here's a diary I did a series of in 2008: The daily average of just the tracking polls. As many have mentioned recently these national polls sometimes suck individually (looking at you Gallup) but historically perform well when averaged. Last time around there were eventually 7 national tracking polls. My final average, the night before the election, had Barack Obama up 7 percent on John McCain. This was very close to the final tally: Obama +7.3.
So let's try it in 2012! So far we have 6 this year. Yes, we'll include Gallup. Yes, Rasmussen too. Yes, the Rand "poll" even though it's different. The latest numbers:
Rasmussen: Obama +0
Gallup: Obama -6
IBD/TIPP: Obama +2
Ipsos: Obama +3
Rand: Obama +3.16
PPP (NEW): Obama +2
The PPP number reflects Wed-Fri. The poll is being released at night now, starting two hours ago:
So the tracking poll average for Friday night is:
Obama +0.69
Hey, it's not much of a lead. But it's a lead. And we know the situation is better in the states that matter.