The Ohio polling averages have changed considerably in the past two weeks, and the recent trend has not gone in the (D) direction. In addition, the news reports have suggested that rather than a 20 point lead, President Obama may only have a 7 point lead in early voting in Ohio. Whether or not these reports are accurate is unclear. But, taken together, the most recent early voting and polling data suggests that Ohio is nearly tied, with only a very small Obama lead.
This comes as a great surprise, because for many weeks, OH has been the most resilient and reliable State in the President's electoral column. OH held up quite well during the Romney bounce, and the current downturn in polling and early voting comes at a time when the Romney bounce has been receding elsewhere.
It is possible that the news of very large rallies for Romney and Ryan in Ohio are indicative of a change in the political wind there only 17 days before the election.
In the polls, there has been consistency amongst most (R) pollsters, most of whom have showed the race essentially tied with small leads for either candidate. When the polls with any kind of partisan affiliation are put aside, the larger and Ohio polling organizations have tended to show a lead for the President in the 3 to 6% range, with the average varying slightly between 3% and 4.5% from week to week.
The data at pollster.com, which used to show such leads, are now showing dramatic day to day swings in poll results, indicating that what was considered a stable Obama lead may have now become a very unstable and even unpredictable race.
It may be hoped that the recent Clinton/Springsten event and the dissipation of the effects of the very large Romney rallies will cause the Ohio polling data to revert to the consistent pattern seen in prior weeks. It can also be hoped that some of the increase in the instability of Ohio poll data is attributable to other temporary factors.
But the narrowing poll data, coupled with reports that Obama's early voting lead in Ohio has been cut in half already, suggest a pattern that many kos readers may not yet have taken notice of.
Any information that you may have about this would of interest. Are reports of narrowing early vote totals reliable? How large is the Obama lead in early voting today, and what are the trends?
Surprisingly, Fox has continued to report Obama with a 3% lead, but if it weren't for the Fox data, or ppp 5% lead, there is little other evidence that the lead is indeed over 2%. And there are many polls, mostly (R), indicating essentially a tie in Ohio.
It would be a great relief to see encouraging early vote data in Ohio, or a new Marist or Quinnipiac or Mason Dixon or Columbus Dispatch polling showing Obama up by 3 to 5% in Ohio. If this doesn't happen, then the electoral pathway for Obama through Ohio may not be something that can be relied upon as solidly as most of us were thinking within the past week.
The most likely alternative pathways, without Ohio, might be NV+IA+CO+NH or NV+IA+VA, but both CO and VA are rated too close to call at this point, toss-ups.
Ohio is our best bet, and there are indications that it could be heading toward toss-up status unless the recent instability trend dissipates.
Hoping this is an interesting topic for discussion, and that we're not heading for another 2004 type of result in Ohio.