For those of you who like to sleep in Sunday morning, here's a quick summary of our election status this morning for your convenience.
Last night's 8:42 p.m. update by Mark Blumentha still sums it up best in Presidential Tracking Polls Show Post-Debate Uptick For Obama which is good news as this table of state poll averages gives us leads in states totaling 290 electoral votes, if we include New Hampshire, where we lead by 0.5%. Even if we fall back to Colorado, where we have a more comfortable lead of 1.5%, we win 286 electoral votes. This still leaves a worse case where if we were to give up Iowa, where we lead by 2.9%, Ohio still puts us at 271 and we now lead there now by 3.1%. Not bad, and the trends all seem to now be moving in our direction, although we'd like to see more soon based on President Obama's stellar second debate, and great speeches at rallies.
As, long as we hold PA (+4.7), NV (+3.7), and WI (3.3%) Ohio is enough to put us over the 270 we need to win in the electoral college, where the election is determined.
In his 9:17 p.m. update, Nate Silver agrees, but urges some cautions in Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead
The FiveThirtyEight forecast is unchanged for Saturday, with President Obama maintaining a 67.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
You’d have to stretch to find much in Saturday’s national polls that would change your view about the condition of the race. Mr. Obama gained ground in three daily tracking surveys — from Public Policy Polling, Investor’s Business Daily and United Press International — but lost ground in two others, from Ipsos and Rasmussen Reports.
Barack Obama 288.5 EV (+3.2 Oct 3) 68.7% Win (+5%) 50.0% Share (+0.1)
Mitt Romney 249.4 EV (-3.2) 32.1% Win (-5%) 48.9% Share (-0.1)
Intrade's share price for as of 9:30 a.m. EST Oct 21:
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 61.3% CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.13 / share
Today's Change: +$0.02 (+0.3%)
So our overall situation seems to been improving slightly. At least, enough so, that if you want to go back to bed for a few more hours, we will be O.K.