Gallup and PPP got you down? Read this....
Remember Nate Silver's golden rule: Don't get too hung up on the results of one poll, regardless of the pollster's reputation. Nor should you dismiss a bad poll and cherry pick the ones you like. The polling average is a more reliable indicator of where things stand. Having said that, even the averages have their faults - in our favor.
This I take comfort in against the volatility and closeness of the polls these days. Final polling averages in 2008 greatly underestimated Obama's performance in the actual election. Is part of this the ground game effect?
Looking at RCP's Final Results vs Final Polls from 2008....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Obama vs McCain - 2008 Final Poll Averages vs Actual Results
National
Polls: Obama +7.3
Actual: Obama +7.6
Not bad... but it gets even better when we look at the critical swing states.
Ohio
Polls: Obama +2.5
Actual: Obama +4.6
Nevada
Polls: Obama +6.5
Actual: Obama +12.5
^ These two are huge. Remember that if Obama wins OH and NV, he's pretty much got the election in the bag.
Colorado
Polls: Obama +5.5
Actual: Obama +9.0
Virginia
Polls: Obama +4.4
Actual: Obama +6.3
(don't forget Virgil Goode... he easily steals 1 or 2 points from Romney)
Florida
Polls: Obama +1.8
Actual: Obama +2.8
North Carolina
Polls: McCain +0.4
Actual: Obama +0.3
Indiana
Polls: McCain +1.4
Actual: Obama +1.1
While we won't win IN this time, the polling difference is still there.
Wisconsin
Polls: Obama +11.0
Actual: Obama +13.9
Pennsylvania
Polls: Obama +7.3
Actual: Obama +10.3
Of course, all the usual caveats apply. Don't get complacent, fight like we're only 1 point ahead, GOTV, volunteer, let's win this thing!