Short diary: Remember that in 2010, Nate Silver gave Sharron Angle an 80% chance of beating Harry Reid. Polls showed her up 3-4 points on election eve. She lost by 5. Why? Because in part the polls undercounted Latinos. The same, I think, may be true this year, not just in Nevada, but also Colorado and Arizona.
According to Latino Decisions, 60% of Arizona Latinos are more enthusiastic about voting than in 2010. Studies suggest that they will comprise 12% of total turnout (though they are 20% of AZ population). Eighty percent say they plan to vote for Obama. The fact that they are also excited about voting for Rich Carmona will drive up their numbers. (I reluctantly add that Carmona's dumb comment about being prettier than Candy Crowley, plus Flake's negative ads about his temper, are going to hurt him. But he still has a solid shot at winning).
In NV, hispanics account for about 15% of registered voters. In CO, it's 12.5%. In both states, as in AZ, Latino voters are significantly MORE enthusiastic about voting than they were in 2008. Less than 20% say they plan to vote for Romney.
For more info, see: http://cis.org/....
and see: http://www.latinodecisions.com/....
Will high latino turnout be enough to swing AZ, NV, and CO to Obama? I don't know but the data is very encouraging. The fact that AZ has an especiailly high proportion of cellphone users also might (or might not) be causing pollsters to undercount Latinos.
We might just get Arizona, which by itself would bring Obama to 270, if we include the states that currently lean Obama. In that scenario, he would not need Ohio, Virginia, or Florida, which is kind of stunning.
Go Carmona! Go Obama!