I am an observer who thinks Barack Obama will hit a home run against Mitt Romney tonight. Sure, Obama has the advantage of being the one who actually executed Osama Bin Laden for the Nine Eleven attacks, but it's more than that.
In a campaign that has become all about Image and Emotions, Barack will have numerous opportunities to express outrage at Romney's insinuations re: his character, his judgments, his patriotism, etc. ("Governor Romney, how dare you...")
He should be prepared at a moment's notice to stop talking about the specifics of Foreign Policy issues and just focus the entire debate/campaign on Mitt Romney's character flaws and his staggering ignorance of the nuances of foreign relations.
Barack Obama will win this debate solidly---and the election as well---if he leaves the Swing Voters who watch it feeling fearful at the thought of Romney making decisions as Commander-in-Chief.
And here's the thing, Mr. President...you will need to model that fear, yourself, just the way the Republicans always do it. Show them what they should be feeling. They'll get it.
That is how you connect with the uninformed.
At those times when you are not speaking in a concerned voice about the scary implications of Romney-ism, you should be shaking your head and laughing, incredulously, at Romney's consistent foolishness in F-P matters. (It would be funny if the stakes weren't so serious...)
The Swing Voters who will decide next month's winner are going to vote based on the emotions they feel when they think of each candidate after watching tonights debate. It is the reason why Barack Obama must focus on two things during tonight's debate:
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(1) He needs to convince the Swing Voters--through his own expressions of emotion--that Mitt Romney really is a man whose ignorance (of FP) is scary. Indications that he would be a reckless C-I-C are abundant. It's like this: if something Romney has said really does scare you, Mr. President, re: its consequences/implications, then say so with some emotion. You will find that it enhances their perception of your AUTHENTICITY. They will find you more believable, more trustworthy.
(2) To provide some emotional balance to this rather intense message, Barack needs to enjoy some laughter at Romney's expense whenever an opportunity arises. Laugh at his foolishness, at the stupid things he has said, at the bizarre twists in logic he is frequently guilty of. Sure, you want to put some fear into the hearts of the Swing Voters, but not 100% of the time.
I think the second debate warmed up the President for the challenge he faces tonight. During the first debate, he conducted himself as if he were debating before an audience of academic professionals, people who place the highest value on decorum, reasoned discourse, and the finer points of logic above all else.
His performance was much improved in the second debate, having apparently learned the hard way that the Swing Voters out there really don’t care about the logic you use and they don’t really care if you are showing respect for your opponent, but they do care about how they ‘feel’ about you, about your character.
Typical Swing Voters know that they don’t understand the details of the issues well enough to make an informed decision on policy differences. They find it difficult to tell which ‘side’ is telling them the truth, often agreeing with both sides. This forces them to rely—almost entirely—upon their ‘impressions’ of each candidate’s personal qualities.
This is why it is possible for them to switch their votes from one man to the other in the final days/weeks: they are not sure whom they can trust, which is why they rely on expressions of emotion to help them decide who is more authentic.
For whatever reason, Swing Voters tend to trust emotion as an indicator of authenticity. Perhaps because they believe it comes from 'deep inside' and also because it can often be 'spontaneous', rather than contrived. (This last perception is not actually true, as any actor will tell you.)
Perhaps for all of these reasons, Swing Voters tend to view 'unemotional' responses to be suspect, at least in comparison to emotional statements.
Perhaps the President’s confrontation with Romney has finally awaken him to the fact that Republican Insiders have no desire whatsoever to ‘get along’ with the Democrats or in ‘governing well.’ They just want to win and will do their utmost to assassinate your character with lies and misrepresentations and innuendo.
Against this threat to both himself and the entire nation, Barack Obama needs to focus his attention exclusively on those Swing Voters who are dependent upon emotional signals to determine whom they should trust.
FDR knew how important this was; it is the reason why he succeeded so very well against the Republicans for so many years. He knew that he needed to frequently refer to the Republicans negatively, with emotion but also with humor (ridicule).
It was a time when FDR’s characterizations of The Republicans provided Swing Voters with a Democratic group identity that average folks were quite naturally attracted to.
If Barack Obama is able to show the Swing Voters the emotion they are looking for, he will win this election, and win it big.