Tropical Storm Sandy officially formed south of Jamaica in the Caribbean sea at 5pm EDT today. Very warm water, low shear and humid air could lead Sandy to intensify rapidly. Sandy might move harmlessly out to sea after passing over Cuba, but two models forecast it to strike the east coast of the U.S. in about a week's time. The NHC does not issue a forecast longer than 5 days because errors increase over time, but be forewarned: Sandy could be a dangerous, damaging storm. The National Hurricane Center has discussed the likelihood that Sandy would transition to a subtropical storm. Noreasters can be as damaging to the east coast as hurricanes. Larger wind fields in noreasters can produce larger waves and more coastal damage.The relatively reliable European
ECMWF model shows a huge hybrid storm striking near Virginia Beach and tracking towards Washington, DC early Tuesday morning next week. The forecast should only be taken as a warming to all east coast residents to be prepared for bad weather early next week. It is too early to make accurate forecasts of where Sandy will come ashore, if it comes ashore.
Tropical Storm Sandy could strike the east coast of the U.S. The Navy's unreliable NOGAPS model forecasts a hybrid storm with Sandy's tropical moisture to strike near Cape Cod around mid-day Monday, October, 29.The reliable European ECMWF model (not shown here due to copyright issues) has an intense low coming ashore between the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Virginia Beach, Virginia and moving inland rapidly up Chesapeake Bay on Tuesday morning October 30.
The tropical Atlantic is exceptionally warm this late October. The warm water, hundreds of feet deep, in the Caribbean could support a category 5 hurricane if it had the time to develop under present low shear conditions. There's little chance of that happening, but Sandy bears close watching because the tropical atmosphere is extremely unstable.
Multiple studies show that the heat content of the north Atlantic ocean has risen the fastest of any ocean on earth over the past 100 years. This summer the coastal waters of the northeastern U.S. were the warmest on record. The exceptional high heat content of the western north Atlantic could make Sandy extremely dangerous.