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Great news today. Internal polling shows Congressman Joe Donnelly with a slight lead over Tea Party extremist. Democratic Global Strategy Group conducted the internal poll and surveyed 603 likely voters between October 17-21:
http://thehill.com/...
Donnelly leads Mourdock by 40 to 38 percent with 8 percent of voters backing Libertarian candidate Andrew Horning, according to the poll.
Publicly released partisan polls tend to be a bit more favorable to their candidates than other public polling. The only recent public poll, from the conservative Rasmussen Reports, showed Mourdock holding a five-point lead.
Outside groups are spending heavily on the race, a sign both sides see it as highly competitive. Mourdock has struggled to woo moderate Republicans and independents since he beat longtime Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) in the primary. He is running well behind Mitt Romney in the GOP-leaning state, and is now featuring an ad touting Romney's endorsement. - The Hill, 10/23/12
Here's the polling data. Libertarian Andrew Horning gets 8% of the vote so it's clear that he's hurting Mourdock more than Donnelly. But if you take Horning out of the picture, Donnelly leads Mourdock 43-41:
http://www.scribd.com/...
Right-wing Super PACs have been spending big on Mourdock's campaign and he's still struggling to win over the disgruntled Dick Lugar supporters who are still angry that Mourdock unseated the 35 year incumbent. With Donnelly's win, we hold onto our majority and it's a big win for organized labor, the middle-class and small businesses. We also send a message to the GOP that when you purge moderates from your party for the sake of some ridiculous ideological purification, YOU LOSE! Send Donnelly to the Senate so we can defeat the Tea Party:
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https://secure.actblue.com/...
11:10 AM PT: TPM has included this new polling and now has it in the Toss Up category:
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/...