If you've watched politics on TV over the last several weeks, you've certainly heard that Mitt Romney has the momentum in the presidential race. If you've read some posters here on DKos, you've read the same thing.
We're in the closing stages of the election. Such momentum should be clearly visible, and not just in, say, swings within robo tracking polls (one of the least reliable sources of information out there). So let's compare the average of national polls today (including Rasmussen's ugly +4 Romney number) with the average from two weeks ago.
Romney 47.7%, Obama 47.1%, Romney by 0.6%.
Two weeks ago nationally:
Romney 48%, Obama 47.3%, Romney by 0.7%.
But the election is won via the Electoral College, of course. So what about the jewel in that particular crown, Ohio?
Today in Ohio:
Obama 47.6%, Romney 45.7%, Obama by 1.9%
Two weeks ago in Ohio:
Obama 47.8%, Romney 47%, Obama by 0.8%.
To be clear, there are swing states that Romney has closed in. But if we were seeing a Romney wave of momentum, he'd have widened nationally and closed in Ohio.
Of related interest, Charlie Cook, who tracks only live-interviewer polls, has Obama up by 1.6% nationally here.
In short, momentum, shmomentum.