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Third debate via Politico:

59.2 million people watched the final presidential debate, the lowest turnout for a presidential debate this cycle, according to Nielsen...

Per Nielsen, 67.2 million people watched the first presidential debate in Denver, Colo., on Oct. 3. 65.6 million people watched the second town-hall debate on Oct. 16 in Hempstead, N.Y. Only 51.4 million people watched the vice presidential debate on Oct. 11 in Danville, Ky.

Also via Politico, the idea that Romney is running away with the election, based on Romneyworld's asessment:
In the minds of many Romneyites, Denver didn’t just give them a bump — it permanently blunted the effectiveness of the Obama campaign’s effort to caricature the Republican as a heartless plutocrat.

“The majority of Americans don’t want to vote for Barack Obama,” Romney strategist Stuart Stevens said. “But I think that had the Obama campaign chosen to present a positive new agenda they might have had a shot. Instead, they embarked on this ‘Kill Romney’ campaign which has completely imploded around them as I think Romney’s favorables are as high as President Obama’s now.”

So, it's over. Too bad no one told the voters. And some real sparks started flying regarding this Alec MacGillis piece:
We crave narrative. And let’s face it, the narrative of the 2012 campaign was a real dud. Incumbent president faces tough reelection environment but manages to hold onto slim, steady lead thanks to a just-enough recovery and a singularly uninspiring challenger. I remember being in a Dayton hotel the morning after Mitt Romney’s 47 percent remarks broke and watching the head-shaking reaction of Morning Joe and his crew: it left them with nothing to say. Which is a problem, because, well, they had many more weeks of needing something to say.

But then: our mile-high salvation! Denver, O Denver. As the dynamic of the first debate began to register just a few minutes in—the crisp and hopped-up Romney against the wordy and listless president—we sang our relief across the Twitterverse. The true partisans among us, the Maddows and Sullivans, rent their garments, but most of us were barely able to suppress our glee: we had ourselves a story. Never mind that the debate had produced no great knockdowns, or that, as some noted in the days following, Obama had actually made a decent substantive case in some areas, if not others. No, we had our story.

For example, Dylan Byers:  
You don't speak for me, MacGillis

Alec MacGillis, a senior editor at The New Republic, has written an essay on behalf of "the liberal media," explaining how "our" love of narrative has led us to overstate the former Gov. Mitt Romney's momentum for the sake of keeping ourselves entertained in an otherwise unexciting campaign season.
What's the dust-up really about? Separating the journos that get spun by the Romney campaign and the quants that don't. James Fallows:
They Can't Both Be Right: 'Savvy' Experts vs. Polls

The big drop in Obama's probability-of-win*, from a high of 86% to a low of 61% by Silver's calculation, came immediately after that first debate. But a week later, that decline stopped -- and then reversed, as it has through the subsequent ten days. (Similarly, see Votamatic.org. Eg, "The reality in the states - regardless of how close the national polls may make the election seem - is that Obama is in the lead.")

They can't both be right: on the one side, the Republican partisans and political "pros" who say that Romney is on the certain road to victory, and on the other the quants who say No he is not. Of course either side allows for uncertainty about the final outcome: there are still two weeks to go. But about the state and the trend of the race, at this moment, they are in fundamental disagreement. The "pros" tell us that Romney is catching up, the quants say he is falling behind.


Intrade is overrated but useful. Same goes for 538. Both add value vs. most horse race coverage, but that's a low bar to clear.
@fivethirtyeight via Twitter for iPad

Hey, some analysts are natural-born quants. Here's Charlie Cook:
The conventional wisdom seems to be that the momentum that Romney built up after his first debate victory had continued to grow, but my sense was that it was arrested by an Obama win in the second debate, albeit less decisive than the Romney’s victory in the first. Going into this third and final debate, the national polls looked dead even, and, coming out of the debate, my guess is that the polls will still be dead even.

But if the national polls are looking even, that doesn’t mean that the election is an even-money contest. Although this race is very close, the road to 270 electoral votes is considerably more difficult for Romney than it is for Obama. The president starts off with undisputed leads in 16 states and the District of Columbia with 237 electoral votes, 33 short of the 270 needed to win. Romney begins with equally clear leads in 23 states with 191 electoral votes, 79 short of a victory. Nine states with 110 electoral votes are in the admittedly broad Toss-Up column (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin). Obama needs to win 30 percent of those Toss-Up electoral votes; Romney needs 72 percent of those votes.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NYM's Jon Chait is right when he says Romney is (26+ / 0-)

    only winning in bluffing

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:34:22 AM PDT

  •  The Media cannot even pressure Romney to release (22+ / 0-)

    His tax returns, something that has become as routine in presidential politics as apple pie. They now claim that flat out lies is moving to the center.

  •  Quants vs. Pundits sounds like a good concept. (0+ / 0-)

    Not as good as this one, but still good.

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:37:41 AM PDT

  •  The reporting says 59.2 mil watched the 3rd (4+ / 0-)

    debate.

    Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

    by natedogg265 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:37:50 AM PDT

  •  Lemme requote Axelrod (18+ / 0-)

    article here

    With exactly two weeks to go, the Obama campaign is feeling good: the president's advisers insist they are winning nationally and in battleground states. And they say this is the race they have always prepared for.

    "This is a race we believe we're leading," said senior strategist David Axelrod on a conference call with reporters, "We believe we're leading nationally and we're leading in these battleground states."

    He added that the Obama team "has the ball" and insinuated that the Romney camp may be lying to themselves about who holds the upper hand.

    "We know what we know and they know what they know and I'm confident that we're going to win this race and we'll know who is bluffing and who isn't in two weeks," said Axelrod.

    A little patience, and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their spells dissolve, and the people ... restore their government to it's true principles.

    by maddrailin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:37:58 AM PDT

    •  And what all know is (11+ / 0-)

      that, as Charlie Cook points out, Obama only needs 33 electoral votes from the battleground or toss-up or swing states to put him over the top.

      Ohio and Wisconsin, which this non-betting person would bet good money on Obama winning, account for 28 EVs. That means Obama needs to pick up any single one of the following to clear 270: Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), Virginia (13), or Florida (29).  

      Romney's only chance is to win outright is to sweep all five of those swing states, plus NH. Does anybody, other than boorish "pros" like Chuck Todd, really think that's going to happen?

      Of course, if Romney does somehow manage to sweep all of those states but loses NH, we'll have a a 269-vote tie, which would lead to a Romney-Biden administration. But that's not going to happen.    

      2012 GOP Platform: "I've Got Mine, Jack."

      by Yankee Patriot on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:20:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It must be very exciting to be working on the (5+ / 0-)

        campaign in those states, knowing that your effort can make such a difference. Slamming the door on Romney in any one of those states could be the coup de grace to his campaign.

        I am reminded of the book and the movie about the racehorse Seabiscuit. In a match race against War Admiral, the scrappy little horse was expected to be outrun from the start. But he broke to an early lead, then War Admiral caught up to him and matched him stride for stride. Head to head, it became a question of determination and heart. Seabiscuit would just not give up. War Admiral faltered, frustrated and discouraged, and Seabiscuit moved ahead and won, going away.

        We are like Seabiscuit. We want this more, because of what we are fighting for. We are fighting for each other, for what is right and good and true. It must be very hard for the other side to climb up another hill and knock on another door, all for the grand cause of giving millionaires another tax cut. But when we climb up that hill or pick up that phone, or reach for our credit card to donate just a little bit more, we know we're doing it to protect the people who rely on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, to protect a woman's right to control her own body, and to continue our economic recovery.

        Forward. The alternative is impossible.

  •  By the way (19+ / 0-)

    today's RAND poll picked up 2 points.

    https://mmicdata.rand.org/...

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:38:35 AM PDT

    •  Looking GOOD (8+ / 0-)

      Go Obama Biden

      GOTFV

      yes I'll go there

      get of the FUCKEN vote kossacks

    •  I am no (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541

      quant.  I barely passed most of the quantitative courses I took.  So bear with me with as much patience as possible, please!

      I understand the Rand tracker uses a very different methodology.  Is this the first time they've used it, though?  Is there any track record?

      I am most puzzled by the state of the race in Ohio.  The early voting trend confuses me.  Are these just voters who would have voted anyway on election day?  If so, I am confused by the projections made of greater Democratic enthusiasm and response based on early voting.  I plan to vote early in Illinois, where it won't matter to the presidential race.  But I'd just vote on Nov 6 should something delay me.  If Democrats tend to vote early, how can some conclude that greater Democratic turnout for early voting is indicative of overall Democratic turnout?

      Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

      by KibbutzAmiad on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:43:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think I've found the flaw in this poll DFCT: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, skohayes
      This poll is too volatile to shifts in (0+ / 0-)
      enthusiasm. I've been watching this poll since its inception and while it is an interesting experiment and noteworthy, it does have some built in flaws. I think the fact that minor changes in intention to vote cause drastic changes in the topline is a problem.

      I mean really, this entire swing upward for Obama was caused by Romney supporters going from 88% likely to vote to 86% likely vote. That caused an Obama 2 point uptick? Makes no sense.

      Similarly, this poll went against the entire trend of polls in the past week by showing a substantial Obama decline post 2nd debate. But the Obama decline was caused purely by Romney supporters going from 85 to 87 in likely to vote and Obama going from 84 to 82.

      Now look at how they ask the question:
      What is the percent chance that you will vote in the Presidential election?

      What is the percent chance that you will vote for Obama, Romney, someone else?

      If you look at the form they send these voters, it is a fill in the blank box. You literally put the number in yourself.

      Is an Obama voter who goes from 100% to 80% a decline in enthusiasm? Umm, not in my book. That's still an Obama vote.

      •  I love it for trends, but always look at avg. (4+ / 0-)

        and as far as flaw in poll, compared to what? Rasmussen's made up and assigned party ID? Robocalls not using cell phones?

        And btw, that enthusiasm flaw is a known flaw with LV's like Gallup.

        Good academic discussion of panels (like Ipsos) here.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:56:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Are any of the trackers (0+ / 0-)

          producing sharp sudden enthusiasm based turns like Rand does? I mean, it is tracking the same set of voters.

          I don't know whats in the formula, obviously. But this isn't bringing and dropping people and moving around in the field. This is the same core set of people.

          •  yes, it is unique (0+ / 0-)

            and the only place to know if the same people changed their mind.

            Then again you can't directly compare Beyesian and probabilistic polling directly as to methodology. just look at the results, gotten from different directions.

            The actual RAND graph tracks the aggregate polling pretty well.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:23:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  as for other trackers (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            brooklynbadboy

            too early to tell, but we get to see if this is a one day, a leading indicator of a trend, etc.

            gotta wait till friday for that, sorry.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:25:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  as to your point (0+ / 0-)

        if you check the data, the Romney improvement started pre first debate. Doesn't match mere enthusiasm.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:57:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good reasons for attacking the gop House. (8+ / 0-)

    The exaggeration of Romney's surge is, regardless of any concern for Romney's chances, a necessity for the gop hopes to retain the House. If there had not been a R bounceback, it would have been invented, in order to keep the gop base and gop leaning indies engaged enough to go out and vote.

    It should be "all hands on deck" for Dems, including off-year Senators and Govs., to press the attack on gop obstruction and to make the case for returning a Dem House.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:40:02 AM PDT

  •  Gary Johnson gets TN newspaper endorsement (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Egalitare, mdmslle

    in this diary I write about the decision of the Chattanooga Times Free Press, which has previously always endorsed Republicans for President, to endorse Gary Johnson.  The editorial is very much worth the read and passing on - who know, perhaps in a close state their reasoning can pull some votes from Romney

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:41:26 AM PDT

  •  And let us not forget (9+ / 0-)

    that yet another Republican running for the Senate has something wretched about rape and pregnancy. When Akin said it, the political world stopped. Mourdock's comments should be all over the morning news. Romney supported him.

    I wonder what that will do to the narrative this time?

    The Spice must Flow!

    by Texdude50 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:42:20 AM PDT

    •  If Republicans in Indiana had rallied (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Texdude50, wishingwell, skohayes, tb mare, Fury

      around Lugar, they'd likely be so far out front in this Senate race they could coast thru to November.  Lugar would win the next 5 or 6 Senate races, including and additional 4 subsequent to his legal death.

      With Mourdock, it's very close, possibly a Democratic win for Joe.  

      Should any Republican Senate candidates phone me up for advice, I'm going to tell them to continue to shoot their ignorant mouths off about rape.  It could result in making the U.S. Senate all that much bluer.  

  •  President-elect Romney (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline

    If the polls are even, the election goes to Romney.  Take my word for it - the Republican base is far more energized than Democrats, I live in a redneck teabagger hotbed and they are vocal, energized, and all are apparently intelligent enough to find the voting place in their pick-up truck.

    I can only hope that President Obama gets a good bounce from the last debate, he needs it.  Bad.

    "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose." - Janis Joplin

    by Uncommitted on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:44:07 AM PDT

    •  don't bet on it... (12+ / 0-)

      Just where do they have that energy? In the South? It really doesn't metter there ,Obama doesn't need the South to win. I work around some of the same R' you are talking about ,they are always vocal but a lot of us D's are just as committed but we just don't go around shooting off our load mouths about it.

    •  Do not discount OFA, Uncommitted, as their (9+ / 0-)

      ground game is amazing , detailed, and very well organized and far reaching.   Kerry and Gore did not have this ground game, not even close.  If John Kerry had this ground game, he might have won OH, though no one will ever know and Gore might have won a state or two more and not have had to worry about Florida.
      I could be wrong but I believe that.

      And let us try not to say President Elect Romney until that is factual. That is way too depressing and disheartening. Remember there are many of us here still calling voters and we will contnue to contact voters right up until Election Day.  And then then, we have people offering rides to polls and conducting that part of GOTV.
      We have to keep our morale up. We have to keep moving along and moving forward.  

      And even if you live in a very red area, you can still go to the Obama website and call voters in key battleground states.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:12:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I will (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mayim

        second that.  I was a delegate for Kerry and spent a lot of time dealing with that campaign and it was one of the worst run I've ever seen.  I'm no expert.  However, it is clear that Obama is running things far differently.
        Enthusiasm is a little difficult to use as a gauge.  We all get one vote.

          A  "meh" vote for Obama is counted once and a "HELL YES GET RID OF THE USURPER COMMIE" vote for Romney is too.  If you are talking about turnout, let every yahoo in Alabama, Mississipi and Utah turn out - won't change the final results.

        Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

        by KibbutzAmiad on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:30:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  the words "president elect Romney" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Plu, skye in Ore

        are the three most motivating words in the English language.

        Wake the f#%#! up, everybody!

    •  The Republican base is not more energized than (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      petersam252, Remediator, elmo, tb mare, asm121, Fury

      The Democratic base, I guess it depends on who you talk to and where you live. I am seeing a lot of energy for Obama and I live in a red county in a blue state..but when I call voters, I hear a lot of energy.

      Watch videos of the latest Obama rallies and you will see unbelievable energy. Stop at your local OFA office and you will  see the energy.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:14:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No thanks. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kitebro, elmo
      Take my word for it

      "It strikes me as gruesome and comical that in our culture we have an expectation that a man can always solve his problems" - Kurt Vonnegut

      by jazzence on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:33:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  May I say (0+ / 0-)

      that I live in deep red western Kansas and there is not one Romney sign in my entire town. These are for the most part solid Republicans, but not ignorant Fox watchers.
      There is more enthusiasm for GOTV for liquor by the drink and local races than for Romney.
      You're somewhere in northern Florida, I assume, where the racists and rednecks swarm. We have more realists here.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:46:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What basis do you have (0+ / 0-)

      for gauging the enthusiasm/energy of Democrats?

  •  Scarborough: The president is being too aloof and (6+ / 0-)

    too professorial......The president is debasing the process with this 'Romnesia' thingy, getting all those laughs.........Mitt Romney has not debased the process, he's a serious guy.

  •  I wonder why more hasn't been made of Mitt's (0+ / 0-)

    refusal to release more tax returns?  If he'd been a Dem. candidate the trad. med. would have been relentless about keeping up the pressure.

    I firmly believe that ALL TV people are in the tank for Mittster, so I'm now at the point where I can't bear to watch TV news any more.  On election night we'll watch PBS, which is slightly less awful than the others.

    Thanks for the roundup, Greg!

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:46:25 AM PDT

  •  Boy I would love to be a Fly on the wall (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, skohayes, Fury

    On Airforce One while they are discussing strategy these next 13 days.  In the meantime, I have managed to make myself sick over polls numbers.  Sick or not, there is an Email out there where OFA is asking everyone to go out get out the vote by talking to people up here in Boca Raton.  I know the Email said "talk to people" but in FL it will always turn into a real argument.

    •  Don't waist your time (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KibbutzAmiad, zekeaz, skohayes, Micheline, MHB

      arguing with Romney supporters or people who are still undecided, instead talk to people who are Obama supporters and get them to actually vote.

      •  absolutely. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        zekeaz, skohayes, amsterdam, tb mare, MHB

        13 days out it is about getting your voters to get to the polls.  If you want to help locally, call your local OFA office.  There are people who WANT to vote but have transportation issues.  There are people who would vote early if they could get to a place that allows this.

        If you know anyone who has not yet registered,they may still be able to at their county board of elections.  With a photo ID, they may be able to register and vote on the spot there (this is true in Illinois and some other states as well).

        Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

        by KibbutzAmiad on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:31:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This election will be about which party can turn (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        amsterdam, tb mare, Fury, MHB

        out the most voters in the swing states on election day.  Both sides probably have enough potential votes to win.  It's going to be a horse race to see who can drag the most people to the ballot box.  My money is on Obama and the OFA army.

    •  Check out the Obama campaign Dashboard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      amsterdam

      You can make calls, look up local events in your area, volunteer at a campaign office, etc.
      It will take your mind off of the polls (which I completely ignore except in Abbreviated Pundit Roundup diaries).
      https://dashboard.barackobama.com/

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:52:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm truly starting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hulibow, Floande, lisajones

    to feel so embarrassed about being late to the political arena.... Who is this David Remnick? I was listening to the Morning Cup (Joe) Show, and he was really giving the Joester a run for his money. I like this guy! I'd like to know other Kossacks opinion about him, cause Google is NOT my friend...:o)

    The GOP hate me! I'm black, a woman, disabled veteran, divorced mother and liberal. THEY SUCK!

    by secret38b on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:48:45 AM PDT

  •  National polls failed in 2008, will fail in 2012 (9+ / 0-)

    Minorities and women will turn out to vote for Obama more than the voter screens predict they will. That happened in 2008 and will happen again for the same reasons.

    The white male GOP has become repugnant to a majority of Americans.

    Obama's organization knows how to get Dems to the polls.

    So just ignore all the blowhards who bloviate based on the national polls which are pretty close to useless in predicting the electoral college results this year.

    look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

    by FishOutofWater on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:49:24 AM PDT

    •  Fooled me in 2008 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, lilsky, Fury

      I sent the child to bed at 8:30 - told her we wouldn't know until the morning. She saw the 9:00 pm declaration replay the next morning.

      I'm pretty tired of being told what I care about.

      by hulibow on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:56:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  polls were right (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SneakySnu, Scarce, hulibow, skohayes
      For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not  far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of  7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away  from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

      Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see  Public Opinion  Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain  support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.

      Pre-election projections for two organizations’ final polls—Rasmussen and Pew—were  perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (*).

      The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).  

      1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)
      1. Pew (10/29-11/1)
      2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
      3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
      4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)
      5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)
      5. ARG (10/25-27)

      6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
      6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
      7. DailyKos.com (D)Research 2000 (11/1-3)
      8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
      9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
      10. FOX (11/1-2)
      11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
      12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
      13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
      14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
      15. Marist College (11/3)
      16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
      17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
      18. Reuters
      C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
      19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
      20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

      http://www.fordham.edu/...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:01:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  National polls did not "Fail" in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      Where'd you get that weird idea?

    •  national polls were ok in 2008 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      zekeaz

      The RCP average was about a 7% Obama win and that is what he got,. we all knew he would win in a landslide, Gallup had Obama winning by way to much, Rasmussen had it about right.
      This year the polls are all over the place. I think robo polling in 2012 is difficult because so many people are cell phone only.
      Watch gallup starting late next week, if they think Obama may win it will start moving toward Obama.In 2004 they had Bush way up until a few days before the election and then had it tied on election day.

  •  Speaking of Idjit pundits, Chuck Todd declared (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    angry marmot, matx, skohayes, tb mare

    yesterday that unless something major happens, Romney will win. He claimed that it's too late for the President to disqualify Romney and he now has to "requalify" himself. Astonishing.

  •  The Nation's Jessica Valenti is a must read (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    "It strikes me as gruesome and comical that in our culture we have an expectation that a man can always solve his problems" - Kurt Vonnegut

    by jazzence on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:50:25 AM PDT

  •  Valentine throws Ortiz under the bus.....the world (0+ / 0-)

    yawns.

  •  Elizabeth Warren! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skillet, hulibow

    That is all.

  •  The dumbest thing of this whole circus is this (8+ / 0-)

    idea that the first debate remade Romney.  I can't even remember anything from that debate except that he returned to his infamous role as serial shape-shifter.  Low bars are easy to clear and the MSM clearly rates an energetic filibuster of BS as a perfect 10.0.  

    Romney didn't get a convention bounce and was polling in the low to mid 40s pre-Denver....the race was always going to tighten...and the first debate was the moment/excuse for that to happen.  

    How much would a dominating Obama performance in the first debate have increased his numbers?  I don't think he's suddenly at 54% in Gallup with a good performance.  In a way, the debate was an opportunity for the sheep to feel like they could actually affirmatively tell pollsters they were supporting Romney.  And it was all b/c of that "amazing" debate fitting into that predictable MSM lazy-ass-journalism narrative.

    1964 Cassius Clay vs Sonny Liston, 1997 Masters Tiger Woods vs Field, 2008 Barack Obama vs Field

    by ZenMaster Coltrane on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:53:21 AM PDT

  •  there is a good diary up about vegas (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    and the odds. think it is very worthwhile and should calm many nerves

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    "With malice toward none, with charity for all..." -Abraham Lincoln not a modern republican

    by live1 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 04:54:13 AM PDT

  •  In a contest between the side with an agenda (7+ / 0-)

    and a lot of "feelings" and "hunches" and the side with the scientific, impartial data (and the ability to crunch it into useful projections), I'll take the science / impartial side any day.  When the media say "Rmoney's catching up!", what exactly do they base it on, other than wishful thinking for a juicy story and a meme that makes their job easy?  When the Nate Silvers of the world say "The race has stabilized", and show me the methods, the data and the graphs, then that's something you can hang your hat on.  

    It's like that with life, too.  When you board an airplane, do you want to fly in one that's been built with hunches and guesswork, and a "feeling" and "hope" that it'll fly?  Or do you want the one designed by engineers, computer-modeled and wind-tunnel tested?  Yeah, I thought so.  

    Of course, there's no penalty for being wrong... just like religion, the media always has an out.  If Rmoney pulls off the miracle, then they'll have their comeback kid.  If Obama wins as the quants predict, then Obama "pulled it out at the last minute, against all expectations!"  Either way, the pundits keep eating steak while the rest of us roll our eyes.  

    •  hats off to my friend Charlie Cook (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Egalitare, Fury

      for straddling that world.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:05:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I must admit it is a difficult balancing task (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skohayes, Fury

        Cook knows what he knows and knows what he doesn't. He and Sabato are both saying the same thing (and have been for over a month): POTUS has a significantly shorter path to "the finish line."

        And now it's just a matter of days before some of "our dear friends" on the right start openly entertaining the notion that Romney will come up short. I, for one, plan to encourage my wing nut co-workers to vote Johnson to vent their anger and frustration.

        When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

        by Egalitare on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:39:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Murdoch and Akin are outliers folks...nothing to (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, jazzence

    see here.....move along.

  •  What's at stake (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, tb mare

    Maybe Mitt has worked to change his campaign rhetoric to hide his conservative core and lure in swing voters with sunny talk of peace and bipartisanship, but the heart of the Republican Party continues to lurch farther to the right than ever before in history. Romney is in bed with right wing neanderthals like Mourdock and Akin who believe women are useless parasites that can be controlled by male politicians. And not only that, but they openly attack basic science and peddle thew most insane and unhinged theories to back up their hateful positions. Make not mistake; if Mitt wins the right wing crazies will be calling the shots in America.   -  progressive

  •  money quote from cook (8+ / 0-)

    Obama needs to win 30 percent of those Toss-Up electoral votes; Romney needs 72 percent of those votes.

  •  MacGillis' piece is provocative... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elmo, tb mare

    ...although I think that his focused criticisms of "the liberal media" miss the broad sociological aspect of the problem. Elections have become not much more than a scripted "reality-show" and too much of the media (left, right, whatever) is indeed implicated in building toward a suspenseful final episode in which we'll finally determine who gets voted off the island. If we're very lucky, a holographic projection will be involved in giving us our fix.  Archetypes prevail over nuance, myths prevail over fact, and ratings go through the roof.

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:04:07 AM PDT

    •  agree, but... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      angry marmot, tb mare

      I agree with this, marmot, but with so many people getting stuff off internet and ratings not that great for cable news- except Faux, right?- I wonder how much this does actually "juice" ratings??? Are more people tuning into 'Joe' b/c of this stupid horse-race frame, or still putting on their usual morning stuff??
      I do agree wholeheartedly that the media, even the "good" journalists, are destroying the process and bending the curve with their "takes". It's shameful.

      •  See this article from The Monkey Cage (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        angry marmot, tb mare

        Media DOES influence voters impressions:

        Our findings suggest that voters’ attitudes are influenced by the arguments presented directly by the candidates during the debate as well as by the media’s instant analyses of the candidates’ debate performances….the impact of the candidates’ messages was often altered by the media’s instant analyses.
        http://themonkeycage.org/...

        The fact is, most voters don't agonize over elections or debates the way we political junkies do, so I think they're more easily swayed by media reports.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:08:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I refuse to participate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      angry marmot, tb mare

      I refuse to buy a cable package where one penny of my money goes to underwrite such garbage.

      I won't turn on the tv for election coverage. And I won't watch PBS Newshour anymore either since they, too, have become a platform for rightwing bullshit. And they better not expect me to answer their call for any pledge drives, either.

  •  Obama in September (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Forward is D not R

    The way I'm inclined to look at the graph, Obama's bulge in September was nothing more than a really big and long post-convention  bump, or bubble, which was bound the deflate sooner or later.

    Better then than now.

    I still don't believe the prevailing story that Obama had a "bad night" with the first debate. I suspect it was a strategic decision that they will never admit. It's better to finish strong.

    I'm assuming that most undecideds do not vote early. Otherwise, they are not undecided.

    Romney: Stubborn, dumb, dishonest, predictable, responds poorly to pressure, and for sale. What''s not to like?

    by tomwfox on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:09:31 AM PDT

  •  The Strength of Dem senate candidates in the swing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zekeaz, Fury, LeslieMouse

    states (except perhaps PA where Casey is slipping but still leading) is reassuring to me.  If Romney were making the big move his campaign and much of the press claim, Baldwin and Brown wouldn't have the leads they do. So I tend to think the lead O has in the state polls in the swing states is real. National polls and national tracking polls are less convincing.  There appear to be many problems with their samples, the L/V screens, party ID's, etc. and the aggregators are also split with RCP and HP Pollster showing Romney with a small lead and TPM and 538 showing Obama with a small lead.  One can pick the aggregator who tells you what you want to hear but that is a mistake (although it may help settle our stomachs). So I go back to state polling and that tells me Romney has a very steep climb to 270 electoral votes.

    Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Republican. But I repeat myself. Harry Truman

    by ratcityreprobate on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:11:20 AM PDT

  •  theme : quants vs... (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    "MORNING MINDMELD: As an antidote to the (perhaps) irrational Republican exuberance that seems to have seized D.C., we pause for the following public-service announcement. To be President, you have to win states, not debates. And Mitt Romney has a problem. Despite a great debate and what The Wall Street Journal’s Neil King Jr. on Sunday called a polling “surge,” Romney has not put away a single one of the must-have states. President Obama remains the favorite because he only needs to win a couple of the toss-ups. Mitt needs to win most of them. A cold shower for the GOP: Most polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa – by MORE than Obama trails in North Carolina. Glenn Thrush and Jonathan Martin reminded of us of the 2008 primary analogy: Whatever else Hillary Clinton had, Barack Obama had the math. And math, not momentum, gets you the big house, the bulletproof car, the cool plane. We now resume our regularly scheduled Playbook."

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:16:28 AM PDT

  •  Just read Byers' Politico (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zekeaz, skohayes, Fury

    piece.  It is (unintentionally, I assume) quite amusing because it proves Alec MacGillis' point.  The monumental lack of self-awareness of these guys is staggering.

  •  dylan beers...ugghhh (0+ / 0-)

    and his ilk are traitors. they carry water for those who hate america. those who want america to fail. they want obama to fail. they have decided on a kinder gentler assasination. not one with guns like the assasinations of the sixties, but a political assasination. mark his presidency as failed. they set out to do this. they have directly stated it. it is not a covert conspiracy. it out in the open. it is brazen.  but obama is america. it is not just his story. it is our story. he is a historic figure.  a figure who represents an enlightened america. a forward america. but the dylan beers of the world want this story to fail. and since the story is an american story, they want america to fail. they are traitors. it is that simple....but don't boo....vote. vote for america. vote for us.

    •  Can we stop with this over the top crap? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Plu, skye in Ore

      A guy who writes for Politico is not a traitor, doesn't hate America and really doesn't want a political assasination of Obama, though I'm pretty sure he'd like Obama to lose.
      There are people who have different views than we do, that doesn't make them a traitor.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:15:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  And today we wake up to more Benghazi fauxversy (0+ / 0-)

    I guess the "trajectory" of the race was being upstaged by--you know, reality.
    So cue email-gate!

    "It strikes me as gruesome and comical that in our culture we have an expectation that a man can always solve his problems" - Kurt Vonnegut

    by jazzence on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:23:21 AM PDT

  •  Who says Romney's on the certain road to (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, tb mare, Fury

    victory -- outside of the Romney campaign that is.  

    A few cheerleaders, maybe?

    Sounds like somebody's trying to make up a narrative to oppopse.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:30:00 AM PDT

    •  Morning Joe, Chuck Todd (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare, Fury

      twitter politicos.

      they are getting embarrassed and may have to pull back.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:38:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why does Chuck dismiss hacked voter machines? (0+ / 0-)

        It is not like it certainly can't happen.  I think fraud happens like the Kathy person in Wisconsin...where she can simply load their own data.

        It can happen, and no doubt will be attempted this election.

        Do you put ANYTHING past republicans?

        Whatever the Foxteapublicans say, the opposite is the truth.

        by Forward is D not R on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:54:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes (0+ / 0-)

          I think hacked machines are nonsense and discredit the left.

          trying voter suppression to win elections? That's real.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:57:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  A few cheerleaders. (0+ / 0-)

        Last I looked, the odds were still in Obama's favor.

        Not that I would suggest an outcome one way or the other.

        After all, my post-midterms record remains a perfect 0% right.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:57:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama should be elated. (0+ / 0-)

    There is no way he should be in the race given his performance.

    As I've said over and over and over and over again: Mitt Romney is a gift to the Democrats, much as John Kerry was a gift to the Republicans in 2004.

    Doesn't mean the President can't lose the election, but the Republicans have given him all the help they could.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:32:15 AM PDT

    •  agree completely (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vicky, skohayes, rja, tb mare, Fury

      except for your overlooking ending the war in iraq, saving the auto industry (see what ohio says about that), preventing a Depression and being reasonable on social issues that matter, including SCOTUS picks.

      Other than that...    ;-P

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:40:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama didn't end the war in Iraq. (0+ / 0-)

        He accelerated the end, but that had already been agreed to by the Bush administration.

        He also didn't save the auto industry.  He propped up a decrepti GM, then watched 30,000 GM workers lose their jobs plus countless others at dealerships.

        And -- GM is still in trouble!
        At least Fiat owns Chrysler now.
        That's got to be a win, right?

        Saving GM would have been huge in 1970, even 1980.  21st century GM is a shell of its former self, and other manufacturers now dominate the US auto industry.

        etc.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:03:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  comparing mitt to a war hero is bullshit. n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      v2aggie2
      •  How so? (0+ / 0-)

        I don't believe we're talking gunnery skills.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:04:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  sure, here goes; (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tb mare

          Mitt is a lousy candidate because he has no few beliefs or political positions beyond doing whatever he can to ingratiate himself with as many people as possible so that he can get elected and then act on what he does believe in which seems to be unregulated capitalism and servicing the needs of his class.

          Kerry was a flawed candidate in that he did not catch on to the amount of damage the swift boating of his real war heroism would do to his candidacy. His political positions were clear and had been pretty consistent for decades and were in line with those of most Democrats.

          •  They were both crappy candidates. (0+ / 0-)

            Kerry at least had the benefit of appealing to the Democratic core.

            Mitt doesn't appeal to much of anybody.  His biggest selling point is being "not the Obama".

            Who knows?  Maybe Kerry could have been a decent candidate in another election under different circumstances, but...
            I don't remember seeing him on the ticket in 2000 or 1992, so maybe not.

            LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

            by dinotrac on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:53:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  well i tried to support my take. doesn't seem you (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tb mare

              worked very hard at supporting yours beyond calling kerry a crappy candidate. maybe we should just get back to work trying to beat mitt.

              •  Let's put it this way: He lost to George W. Bush (0+ / 0-)

                at a time when the Iraq war wasn't popular, the deficit was climbing through the roof, and the economy wasn't exactly gangbusters.

                LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

                by dinotrac on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 10:39:27 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  clint eastwood making ad for mitt. guess he has (0+ / 0-)

    a lot of free time on his hands now that "curve" bombed at the box office and he lost a debate with a chair.

  •  I've been busy and may have missed it but (0+ / 0-)

    has DKOS covered the story of OCSE monitors agreeing to monitor the election here in the US?

    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    If true this is a welcome development and it has Repubs going apeshit.

  •  Today's big new narrative (0+ / 0-)

    OMG! Freakout! We're guaranteed another one of those awful elections where one party wins the popular vote [and therefore SHOULD be president, under any rules that are true and fair] -- but the other party  manages to manipulate the system and win the Electoral College, which is SO not fair and should never happen (except for 2000 that WAS fair), so Obama really isn't President (again) and should just either resign or do whatever the GOP in Congress tells him to.

    Even, I'm sorry to say, the Boston Globe has picked this one up (in slightly less breathless fashion).

  •  Situation Normal for Pollsters All Effed Up (0+ / 0-)

    We've just had two Presidential slamdunks in the span of a week so I severely doubt Romney is cruising to any victory party in the Caribbean anytime soon. His ship's engine got smoked in the 2nd debate and any momentum would be stunted from there on. Romney need to run away with the election through these debates. But he failed to put on a good enough show. Just the Nielsen ratings put that thought to bed. He needed to draw in a huge crowd each debate just to have a chance to take any of the battleground states.

    As it sits now, the pollsters are all over the map as they change gears for the final push to election day. Situation normal for the polls at this late date.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:19:39 AM PDT

    •  they are not all over the map (0+ / 0-)

      they are polling a tied race with margin of error variance.

      however, Obama leads in Ev right now, and its all about ohio.

      we know that from the polls.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:55:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thar she blows! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Greg Dworkin

        But with so many events affecting the polls lately are we seeing a waning bump for Romney or a rising bump for Obama at the current moment? We have a few days worth of polls but we won't know where we end up without a trend. Isn't that correct?

        It seems that we are in choppy waters at the moment where even with the variance accounted for we could see something quite different over a short amount of time. Earlier in the cycle we had a long span of time between national scale events. But this past week everything has been compressed to make it a little harder to read clear trend lines. That's all I'm saying.

        "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

        by Wynter on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 08:26:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  clear enough (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Wynter

          I would argue that a tied race, as shown by the aggregates/averages, is a tied race. When it's close, the individual races in OH, WI and OH matter much more.

          The polls confirm all of that.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 09:33:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  POLITICO'S Byers is apparently thin-skinned (0+ / 0-)

    as it appears that he blocked me from any further use of their sites Facebook comment system after I posted the first comment on the post (under the name Gary Stewart).
    I was in support of MacGillis, of course, and even allowed that Byers might not be guilty of what was claimed by the article but noted it was amusingly defensive.
    I'm going to write it off as a dubious honor, as I have never been blocked by anyone for anything.  But I will miss reading the comments, which are often more interesting to me than POLITICO's  original work.

    Open, but not gaping..

    by sgary on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:05:05 AM PDT

  •  All Hail Nate Silver (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury

    Nate Silver of 538 has a record of accuracy that none of the polls can equal and a demonstrated commitment to the truth that is anathema to the Republican Party. Doesn't anyone remember how painful it was to read 538 back in 2010?

  •  Which Pundits (0+ / 0-)

    I find Fallows's assertion unconvincing.  He says self perceived savvy journalists are asserting that Romney has momentum and will win, but he doesn't name and quote.  This post is supposed to be a pundit roundup, but you don't name or quote any pundits whose views correspond to those you assert are typical of pundits.

    This seems to be a pundits on pundits roundup where all the quoted pundits criticize un named other pundits.

    Charlie Cook is a very leading horse race handicapper pundit.  A survey of the conventional horse race wisdom must start with him.  He is presented as an exception to the rule.  No evidence that it is a rule is presented.

    There is no evidence even in the quote of Politico (and if there is silly conventional wisdom it must be findable in politico).  The quoted passage quotes a Romney campaign strategist.  The reporter reports and doesn't endorse the claim.

    I think what we have here is Chicken evenlittler running around sayin that chicken little is saying the sky is falling.

    •  i wanted to give you a flavor for it (0+ / 0-)

      Chuck todd, Joe scarborough, folks at politico, a ton of stuff on twitter, lots on cable, all were going with the politico presented piece (yes, it''s there in the round-up) that the Romney camp touted a lead and that the CW was that romney had momentum after the first debate undimmed by the second and third debates, pushed especially by Politico, which is why Dyers was so sensitive to it. Fallows wasn't pulling it out of the air.

      OTOH,. i wasn't intending to give academic footnotes.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 12:06:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  here's more of a flavor (0+ / 0-)

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 02:57:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  more naming names (0+ / 0-)

      but you, the informed reader, knew much of this:

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

      Is Mitt Romney’s momentum real or fake?

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 05:57:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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