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Leading Off:
• ND-Sen: Here's another remarkable sign that conservatives are getting desperate in North Dakota:
State Sen. Tim Mathern of Fargo is taking the Catholic Church to task over a letter to priests he says is overly political.
Mathern released a draft of the letter, apparently written by Bismarck Bishop David Kagan and set to be read during masses throughout the state this weekend, on Tuesday.
The draft discusses issues like abortion and gay marriage as unacceptable to Catholic teachings, and urges churchgoers to vote for candidates who uphold Catholic values.
The letter does not name any candidates, but Mathern says it stakes out partisan ground and clearly refers to certain individuals. He said one line—"Please do not vote for the candidate who is most likable"—echoes a line used in an advertisement against U.S. Senate candidate Heidi Heitkamp.
Indeed, that framing is hardly coded. The NRSC
ran one ad in which the narrator explicitly intoned: "Heidi Heitkamp: You might like
her, but on the issues she's wrong for North Dakota."
Another spot started with a woman claiming, "I like Heidi. I just don't like her supporting President Obama." How grotesque to see supposedly non-political religious institutions which depend on their tax-exempt status to so nakedly insert themselves into the electoral process this way.
Meanwhile, remember that Fargo Forum from Essman/Research poll I lit into in the previous Digest? Well, guess what? They just released their presidential toplines, and they have Mitt Romney crushing Barack Obama 57-32—a 25% margin. This is a state that John McCain won by 8, and what little public polling there's been has put Romney up 13-15 points. Even if you think Romney's going to win by such a huge spread in North Dakota, it's pretty hard to imagine Obama pulling in the low 30s—thus further supporting Essman's own acknowledgment that its poll (which found Heitkamp implausibly trailing by 10) skewed too Republican.
Senate:
• IN-Sen: Democrats continue to believe in Joe Donnelly, with big money coming his way in the penultimate week of the campaign. According to Politico, Majority PAC is spending $1.1 million in Indiana, while the DSCC is chipping in another $525K, both for the final week of October.
• ME-Sen: Just a little FYI: On Thursday night at midnight Eastern, all federal campaigns have to file yet another FEC report, called a "pre-general" report, detailing all fundraising activities from Oct. 1 through Oct. 17. (As per usual, we'll bring you a chart of all such numbers for every competitive House race in the nation.) And from Oct. 18 forward, all campaigns have also had to continually file so-called "48-hour notices" detailing any contributions of $1,000 or more (within, as you'd guess, 48 hours of receipt of the donation). You can search for such notices here. Anyhow, I mention all this under the heading of ME-Sen because Republican Charlie Summers became the first to leak his pre-general numbers, with $325K raised in the first two-plus weeks of October.
• MO-Sen: Our thoughts go out to Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill, who has cancelled all campaign events for the rest of the week to spend time with her critically ill 84-year-old mother, who is in intensive care.
• PA-Sen: File this under "things I don't like one bit": The Dem-aligned Majority PAC has just reserved $515K in airtime in the Pittsburgh market for the last week before election day, in an effort to help Dem Sen. Bob Casey. As we've mentioned several times recently, some polling has shown free-spending Republican businessman Tom Smith closing on Casey, though Democratic operatives seem dismissive, and a new Casey internal had him up 52-39. So we're left with the classic dilemma: Either the Casey camp's been blustering, or this is merely an insurance policy. But even if it's the latter, it's disappointing to see money get spent on a race that Team Blue really ought to have in the bag.
• TN-Sen: This may be the first time the Tennessee Senate race has made the news since the night of the primary, when weirdo conservative Some Dude Mark Clayton won the Democratic nomination, largely by virtue of being the first person alphabetically on the list (and by virtue of a non-campaign from the presumed nominee, actress Park Overall). It's not the most flattering story either; the Washington Post's headline is "2012's worst candidate? With Mark Clayton, Tennessee Democrats hit bottom." It's one of those local color pieces that's well worth a read, though, with a detailed explanation of the Tennessee Democrats' quick but steep downward spiral. (David Jarman)
• WI-Sen: Tommy Thompson's gone hardcore negative in his latest ad, attacking Democrat Tammy Baldwin because she "had the opportunity to vote to honor the victims of 9/11—and she voted against it." The spot is accompanied by images of the Twin Towers, and some of the rhetoric will make you feel like we're back in 2001 as well: One Navy vet even says, "It's a very dangerous path Tammy's leading us on." Baldwin's responding by saying she's voted to honor 9/11 victims on nine other occasions, but that she opposed this particular non-binding resolution because "it included divisive language, including an endorsement of the Patriot Act and immigration bills that Baldwin believes are punitive." All that said, this is not the kind of TV ad you run in the closing weeks of the campaign if you're feeling good about your chances.
• Polls:
•
AZ-Sen (Anzalone for Carmona): Rich Carmona (D): 45 (43), Jeff Flake (R): 41 (44), Mark Victor (L): 5 (3). There are no presidential toplines, but one interesting detail is that Carmona is pulling 18% of Republicans—a pretty impressive level of crossover appeal, especially since Flake isn't as manifestly damaged as someone like, say, Indiana's Richard Mourdock. (Carmona also leads 47-33 among indies.) Carmona's favorables are at 42-34 despite relentless attacks, while Flake is even at 41-41.
• CT-Sen (SurveyUSA): Chris Murphy (D): 47, Linda McMahon (R): 43; Obama 53-40
• CT-Sen (Rasmussen): Chris Murphy (D): 48 (51), Linda McMahon (R): 47 (46)
• CT-Sen (Hamilton for DSCC): Chris Murphy (D): 46, Linda McMahon (R): 40, Paul Passarelli (L): 3. The memo says that McMahon is getting 15% of Democratic voters—but that Murphy is getting the same share among Republicans. And McMahon needs to do much better than a wash to win.
• IN-Sen (GSG for Donnelly): Joe Donnelly (D): 40, Richard Mourdock (R): 38, Andrew Horning (L): 8. In a two-way without Horning, Donnelly leads 43-41. Last month, Donnelly led 45-42 in what I believe was also a two-way matchup.
• ND-Sen (Rasmussen): Heidi Heitkamp (D): 45 (40), Rick Berg (R): 50 (49). Note: Trendline is from July.
Gubernatorial:
• NH-Gov (UNH): Maggie Hassan (D): 43 (35), Ovide Lamontagne (R): 35 (39). UNH is so weird.
House:
• CA-31, IL-11: The Realtors are going in big for GOP Reps. Gary Miller and Judy Biggert, spending another $400K on TV ads for Miller (on top of the $480K they've already thrown down), and $500K on Biggert (the first time they're backing her on the airwaves). In Miller's case, the Realtors have previously shelled out a fortune on mailers as well, to help him against his same-party challenge from state Sen. Bob Dutton. Does Miller really need that much help? Or is it just the Realtors being weird?
• CA-36: The House Majority PAC is out with seven new ads, five targeting GOP incumbents and two going after Republican challengers to Dem congressmen. The spots mark HMP's first entry into five of these races, the most notable of which is CA-36, where their ad targeting GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack is running as part of a "previously announced $285,000 buy." That suggests, at least, a possible vote of confidence in Democrat Raul Ruiz, in the wake of the Leonard Peltier ugliness. The full list of districts (and links to all the ads) is available if you click through.
• CA-52 (Grove for Peters): Scott Peters (D): 45, Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 40. This is Peters' pushback to a pair of recent polls that showed Bilbray leading: One, a Bilbray internal from an unknown pollster, had the incumbent up 48-44, while another (for a local newspaper) had him leading 47-38. Peters' memo doesn't include presidential toplines, but it does note that the sample was 40% Republican, 36% Democratic, and 24% independent. According to the California SoS, voter registration in the 52nd is 35 R, 32 D, and 27 I.
• FL-10 (GSG for DCCC): Val Demings (D): 41, Daniel Webster (R-inc): 43. There are no trendlines, though the memo says that "[s]upport for Webster has dropped by three points since September." There are no presidential numbers either, but GSG notes that Dem Sen. Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack 47-43 in the Senate race. I'm guessing this is pushback against commentary by Stuart Rothenberg, who recently said he viewed this race as very unlikely to produce a Democrat upset because secret GOP internals purportedly showed Webster "in pretty good shape." However, note the field dates on this poll: Oct. 11-14. Things may well have changed since then.
• FL-22 (Anzalone for Frankel): Lois Frankel (D): 47, Adam Hasner (R): 37; Obama 50-43. Those presidential numbers are definitely weaker for Obama than his 57-43 score in 2008 (and if accurate, illustrate his general Florida fade). But that's a good sign for Frankel, if she's up 10 despite a weaker top of the ticket. Her memo also includes some notes on the media picture, saying that Hasner has "abandoned West Palm Beach broadcast television" and is "limited to cable," while Frankel is still up on the broadcast airwaves.
• IL-13 (Anzalone for DCCC): David Gill (D): 48 (41), Rodney Davis (R): 39 (41). This is the first Anzalone Liszt poll we've seen of the race—those trendlines that had the race tied at 41 in mid-September were previously unreleased. That's very positive news for Gill, who has been the subject of a huge barrage of negative ads. (Indeed, IL-13 is currently 11th on Open Secrets' list of total outside spending on House races.) There are no presidential toplines, though.
I do have to wonder, though, if this new poll is something of an effort to change the conversation from Gill's rocky last week on the campaign trail. He struggled in an attempt to explain how recent coordinated expenditures with the DCCC didn't violate his pledge not to "take a penny from Wall Street bankers or big corporations" and reportedly hung up on reporters in the middle of a conference call on the topic. Gill's also apparently reluctant to add any more events to the debate schedule, though two more are still upcoming (one this week and one next). Charitably, this poll (taken after these issues started to emerge) might be evidence that voters aren't concerned about this kind of stuff.
• MI-11: This is deeply unexpected: The American Medical Association is spending $228K to produce and run TV ads on behalf of Democrat Syed Taj, making them the first outside organization to get involved in this open-seat race on his behalf. (They've also paid $22K to GQR for a poll; would love to get my hands on that.) The AMA, though, is one of those third-party groups with motives and goals that would strike most partisans as weird. Just check out who else is on their new list of expenditures: NV-03 GOP Rep. Joe Heck, NY-18 GOP Rep. Nan Hayworth, and CA-07 Dem challenger Ami Bera. A strange mix, but there's one thread that links them all: each is a physician. I guess the AMA just wants as many doctors in Congress as possible. (So in that case, how about a little love for Rich Carmona?)
• MN-02 (SurveyUSA): Mike Obermueller (D): 41, John Kline (R-inc): 49; Obama 48-44. This is the first known poll of Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, where former state Rep. Mike Obermueller is challenging veteran GOP Rep. John Kline. Obermueller was a good recruit, but this poll shows that even though Kline got a somewhat bluer seat after redistricting, he's still a strong candidate—and indeed, he's dominant on the money front, with almost $1.4 million still in the bank for the stretch run, compared to $370K for his opponent. However, Kline is 65, and a good showing by Obermueller could position him well in the event the incumbent retires in the near future.
• NY-25 (GBA for DCCC): Louise Slaughter (D-inc): 53, Maggie Brooks (R): 43. This is the first internal we've seen of the race—previously, the only public polls came from independent Siena College, which recently saw Slaughter's lead shrink from 10 points to 5. GBA says things have gone in the opposite direction (albeit over a longer timeframe), citing previously unreleased numbers from August that had Slaughter up just 52-46. The presidential numbers look pretty plausible, with Obama ahead 54-40 (he won here by 59-40 in 2008). Lately, though, Crossroads has amped up its already heavy ad spending, and the DCCC followed by jumping in to help Slaughter. So while GBA's trendlines might look good for Team Blue, the advertising picture is cloudier.
And speaking of, the D-Trip's ad is finally available online. Unlike most generic negative spots (which attack some random Republican for hating on Medicare), this one is very specific about Maggie Brooks, saying that she "named a campaign contributor as airport director. He spent our tax dollars on strippers and cigars." More: "Brooks' second airport director, arrested... for driving drunk in a county vehicle." I hope it's an effective hit, but it's unfortunate that Slaughter's in a position where national Dems have to worry about her... particularly when they're touting polls that have her up 10.
• TX-23: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton is headed down to San Antonio on Thursday to headline a rally for Democrat Pete Gallego, who is challenging GOP freshman Quico Canseco. Click here if you're interested in tickets.
• WA-01 (SurveyUSA): Suzan DelBene (D): 47 (42), John Koster (R) 44 (46). SurveyUSA is out with one more poll of the open seat battle in the 1st, probably their last of the cycle; this time, they have Democrat Suzan DelBene ahead. The sample still looks very GOP-friendly, though, as the poll also has Barack Obama leading 48-45 and Rob McKenna leading 50-42 in the district. That's more plausible than SUSA's last try, but still pretty screwy considering how similar the district is to the state as a whole (the district was 56-42 Obama in 2008, while the state was 57-40). (David Jarman)
Other Races:
• SD Mayor: Over the weekend, a lot of eyebrows in SoCal got raised by a poll, conducted by the Glover Park Group and paid for by the San Diego Union-Tribune, which showed Republican Carl DeMaio up 10 points (46-36) on Democrat Bob Filner. This was a bit surprising, given that virtually all of the polling done to date (albeit virtually all of it by one firm, SurveyUSA) had given Filner an edge in the race. Team Filner immediately countered with a poll of their own from Grove, showing them ahead by 3 (44-41). That's still quite a bit less gaudy that the leads SUSA's seen, but obviously a rather different picture than what Glover found.
A local alternative paper, meanwhile, offered a thorough evisceration of the UT poll, as well as the newspaper, in general. One huge component in the poll which speaks to potential bias in favor of DeMaio: the pollster deliberately excluded any city employees from the poll, or any of their family members. That's odd, to be sure. (Steve Singiser)
Grab Bag:
• Crossroads: Karl Rove's evil twin children, American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, are launching a new $8 million ad blitz in eight Senate races: IN, ME, MT, ND, NV, OH, VA & WI. Click through for links to and descriptions of all the ads.
• Polltopia: In the past, polling averages have done a very good job predicting the margins of various races, but sometimes errors have been obvious—for example, the 2010 Nevada Senate race, where polling averages showed Majority Leader Reid losing by a few points, when in fact he won. We may be able to predict this sort of error based on past elections. Dreaminonempty uses two different methods to adjust current polling in Senate races, and if they are correct, it's good news for Democrats.