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I am writing a piece about Rasmussen and 2010 (which was a debacle) but given their poll is being used by some as a sign of momentum, I thought now would be a good time to review just how bad their polling in Ohio has been since 2004. As most now this morning, Survey USA has Obama up 3, and Rasmussen has it tied.

So let's look at the Rasmussen track record in Ohio.  Remember, in both 2004 and 2008 Ohio was ground zero: the media narrative on the race really was determined by the state of the race there.

Let's start with 2004 (RCP average 2.1%, Bush won by 2.1%)
Rasmussen, 10/31 (Bush +4)
SurveyUSA, 10/31 (Bush +2)
It is worth noting that Gallup was the only pollster that showed a Kerry lead (+4)

2008 (RCP avg 2.5%, Obama won by 4.7)
Rasmussen,    11/2    Tie
SurveyUSA    10/30 - 11/2 Obama +2
PPP (D)    10/31 - 11/2 Obama +2
Univ of Cinci/Ohio Poll    10/29 - 11/2 Obama +6
Quinnipiac    Obama +7
Rasmussen was well outside the MOE in Ohio in 2008.

Portman +24 (was +18, Ras showed the largest lead by 3 of any pollster)
Kasich +4 (was 2.7)

The 2010 Senate polling was bad, though the race wasn't close.  

Let's look at Rasmussen's state performance in 2008.  Rasmussen's national poll was quite accurate, but their 2008 state polling was really awful.
Colorado, Obama +4 (actually +8.5)
Florida, McCain +1 (actually was Obama +3.5)
Georgia, McCain +5 (actually McCain +5.2)
Indiana, McCain +3 (actually Obama +/9)
Iowa, Obama +8 (actually Obama +9.5, though this poll was taken over a week out)
Michigan, Obama +10, actually was Obama +16,5
Minnesota, Obama +12 (was 9.8)
Missouri, tie (was McCain +.1)
Nevada, +4 (was +12)
NH Obama +7 (was +9.6)
NM O +10 (was O +15, though Ras was the closest pollster)
NC McCain +1 (was O +1)
Pennsylvania +6 (was +10)
VA +4 (was 6.3)
WI +6 (was 13.9)

I have to ask - why do we care about Rasmussen?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:50:00 AM PDT

  •  Ras last Ohio poll. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, vlajos, MadGeorgiaDem, brn2bwild

    That showed a 48/48 tie, also said that Obama's approval in the state is 51%.  Uh, so then 3% of people who believe Obama is doing a good job, won't vote for him?

    yeah, sure...
    More the likely this result is a consequence of a tight LV screen...that early voting is eliminating as we speak.

  •  I only care (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    because 538 uses them in their average, so if one of their polls is bad it'll pull their average down, which frustrates me.

  •  Bashing polsters only makes us look like (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    we're losing. There are more productive things to do. Make some calls.

    Everyone Chill the fuck out! I got this - unknown but credited to Barack Obama

    by natedogg265 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:58:42 AM PDT

    •  I have worked for the legal protection (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, terjeanderson

      program here in florida for years.

      I really am tired of people in polling diaries writing "who cares, make calls" since the vast majority of people here do not need to be told that and why are you reading this diary in the first place?

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:00:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Geez (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, CA Pol Junkie, ChadmanFL

    Who cares.

    If the best a Republican leaning pollster can do is a tie, there's nothing to be worried about.

  •  Ras was 4 points off the mark in OH in 2008 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, vlajos

    Their lean is probably 5-7 points this time around.  Don't Sweat Ras.  Last 3 polls put Obama's lead at 2.5 but we know the real lead is in the 5-6 point range.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:02:43 AM PDT

  •  Dig deeper (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, vlajos, terjeanderson, ChadmanFL

    Here are the last polls for Rasmussen/RFox for Ohio in 2008.

    FOX News/Rasmussen    11/2 - 11/2    1000 LV    3.0    49    49    Tie

    FOX News/Rasmussen    10/26 - 10/26    1000 LV    3.0    49    45    Obama +4

    FOX News/Rasmussen    10/19 - 10/19    1000 LV    4.0    47    49    McCain +2

    Rasmussen    10/14 - 10/14    700 LV    4.0    49    49    Tie

    FOX News/Rasmussen    10/12 - 10/12    1000 LV    3.0    49    47    Obama +2

    FOX News/Rasmussen    10/5 - 10/5    1000 LV    3.0    47    48    McCain +1

    FOX News/Rasmussen    9/28 - 9/28    500 LV    4.5    47    48    McCain +1

    Rasmussen    9/24 - 9/24    700 LV    4.0    46    47    McCain +1

    FOX News/Rasmussen    9/21 - 9/21    500 LV    4.5    46    50    McCain +4

    FOX News/Rasmussen    9/14 - 9/14    500 LV    4.5    45    48    McCain +3

    FOX News/Rasmussen    9/7 - 9/7    500 LV    4.0    44    51    McCain +7

    Rasmussen    8/18 - 8/18    700 LV    4.5    43    48    McCain +5

    Rasmussen    7/21 - 7/21    500 LV    --    42    52    McCain +10

    Note: on some of those days, at the exact times, Quinnipiac, PPP and others were as much as 10 pts in the opposite direction to what Rasmussen said they found. (In the early one from July PPP was 18 pts different: Ras had McCain +10, PPP Obama +8).

    Rasmussen is a narrative pollster.

  •  This is proof that current methodology in polling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, terjeanderson

    is failing.

  •  The reason national poll is accurate (0+ / 0-)

    Is bc they switch last two- three days and ppl think they are a credible poller. It's a total farce. With,Obama that much up in early voting no way it's a tie.

    "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

    by delphil on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:19:35 AM PDT

  •  ras is the go to pollster for the right (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen is the go to pollster for the vast right wing media and blogs so their lousy record is always overlooked because somehow on election day he always ends up hitting the popular vote since 2004.
    No reason to think this year will be accurate though. He still has Obama down 4 but says last night Romney was only up 2 so something stinks unless the day that fell off was a great romney night.

  •  One point is within the margin of error (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen is saying that there has been no movement in the polls over the past week (notably, Romney remains at 48; Obama dropped from 49 to 48).  There's really nothing to see here.  A static race is to our benefit.

    The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

    by rfahey22 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:20:29 AM PDT

  •  why we care about Rasmussen (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen polls tell us with a high degree of confidence that Obama is doing better than what they say.  If they say Ohio is tied, that means Obama is winning.

    You have the power to change America. Yes We Can. Yes We Did. Yes We Will.

    by CA Pol Junkie on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 09:24:50 AM PDT

    •  Rasmussen's (0+ / 0-)

      last poll was Obama +1.  One week later they show it tied.  It is well known that Rasmussen kicks things a couple of points to the R side.  If you assume that they do an equal amount of kicking on average for each poll, then this result shows a trend towards Romney.  However, it is equally plausible that Rasmussen tilts more strongly towards R the closer it gets to the election, so that in each subsequent poll they can show a trend towards R's that the media will pick up on.  

      I'd like to see some numbers-based research on this question.

  •  We don't care about Rasmussen. (0+ / 0-)

    It has to give you confidence however when even with their polls being considered Obama maintains a two point lead or better in Ohio.

  •  I think people talk about them so often (0+ / 0-)

    Merely because they put out a TON of polls.  More than any other pollster it seems.  Nothing more.

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