I am writing a piece about Rasmussen and 2010 (which was a debacle) but given their poll is being used by some as a sign of momentum, I thought now would be a good time to review just how bad their polling in Ohio has been since 2004. As most now this morning, Survey USA has Obama up 3, and Rasmussen has it tied.
So let's look at the Rasmussen track record in Ohio. Remember, in both 2004 and 2008 Ohio was ground zero: the media narrative on the race really was determined by the state of the race there.
Let's start with 2004 (RCP average 2.1%, Bush won by 2.1%)
Rasmussen, 10/31 (Bush +4)
SurveyUSA, 10/31 (Bush +2)
It is worth noting that Gallup was the only pollster that showed a Kerry lead (+4)
2008 (RCP avg 2.5%, Obama won by 4.7)
Rasmussen, 11/2 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/30 - 11/2 Obama +2
PPP (D) 10/31 - 11/2 Obama +2
Univ of Cinci/Ohio Poll 10/29 - 11/2 Obama +6
Quinnipiac Obama +7
Rasmussen was well outside the MOE in Ohio in 2008.
Portman +24 (was +18, Ras showed the largest lead by 3 of any pollster)
Kasich +4 (was 2.7)
The 2010 Senate polling was bad, though the race wasn't close.
Let's look at Rasmussen's state performance in 2008. Rasmussen's national poll was quite accurate, but their 2008 state polling was really awful.
Colorado, Obama +4 (actually +8.5)
Florida, McCain +1 (actually was Obama +3.5)
Georgia, McCain +5 (actually McCain +5.2)
Indiana, McCain +3 (actually Obama +/9)
Iowa, Obama +8 (actually Obama +9.5, though this poll was taken over a week out)
Michigan, Obama +10, actually was Obama +16,5
Minnesota, Obama +12 (was 9.8)
Missouri, tie (was McCain +.1)
Nevada, +4 (was +12)
NH Obama +7 (was +9.6)
NM O +10 (was O +15, though Ras was the closest pollster)
NC McCain +1 (was O +1)
Pennsylvania +6 (was +10)
VA +4 (was 6.3)
WI +6 (was 13.9)
I have to ask - why do we care about Rasmussen?