Yesterday, in my journal Real Clear Politics, Horse-race Media, and Why You are Falling for a "Close Race", which reached the recommendation list and achieved good discussion, we showed why Real Clear Politics is willfully obfuscating the state of the race. They are releasing polls only when it is in favor of Romney movement, when possible. They hold out on posting Obama movement polls, when possible, and at times, do not post them at all, such as the current PPP Virginia poll that is now 4 days old and still not on their Virginia list.
We discussed the need for a better polling aggregate, and as much as I can, I will handle this myself. We can do this together. More beyond the fold.
ANY time you see a new poll come out, mention it along with a link to it in the comments and I will do my best to add it!
I plan to add to this throughout the day, regardless of which polls RCP cherry picks.
First of all, I do not want to get my polling information from a site that, according to wikipedia:
RealClearPolitics is a political news and polling data aggregator[2] based in Chicago, Illinois. The site's founders say their goal is to give readers "ideological diversity".[3] They have described themselves as frustrated with what they perceive as anti-conservative, anti-Christian media bias,[4]
Such is obvious from the way they toss out polls and obfuscate the state of the race. Nonetheless, Real Clear Politics is every bit as popular, if not more popular, than Dailykos when it comes to the media reading and getting a feel for the state of the race. There are other polling aggregators out there, but they are not doing a very good job at presenting the information in an easily digestible format. And of course, out by himself, Nate Silver is doing his awesome thing, but it does not replace the idea of keeping us current with the state of the race and the state of polls. So I will post the polls that Real Clear Politics will not post, and I will post them right here in this diary today, along with the polls that RCP posts. I am tired of the attempt to demoralize Democrats, and none of you should rely on polls for morale, but if you DO decide to take a peak, check here first and then realize how poor RCP is as a pollster.
First, national polls.
National Poll
Gallup Tracking
Dates: 10/16/2012-10/23/2012
RCP status: Posted
Romney +3
R50, O47
This has been part of a huge swing in Gallup going from +7 only a few days ago to +3 for Romney. Gallup has come back to earth. Obama Job Approval is 53%. Even with Gallup's swings, no president has ever lost with an approval of higher than 48%.
National Poll
Rasmussen Tracking
Dates: 10/21/2012-10/23/2012
RCP status: Posted
Romney +4
R50, O46
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
This one is interesting. Rasmussen says Obama has a 10 point advantage on early voters, and that the one night post debate, Romney does significantly worse.
National Poll
IBD/TIPP
Dates: 10/18/2012-10/23/2012
RCP status: Posted
Obama +3
O47, R44
http://news.investors.com/...
Obama maintains lead.
National Poll
UPI/Cvoter Telephone
Dates: 10/17/2012-10/24/2012
RCP status: NOT POSTED
Obama +2
O49, R47
http://www.upi.com/...
This is just a good old fashioned telephone poll, no idea why RCP doesn't include it.
National Poll
Reuters/Ipsos
Dates: 10/19/2012-10/24/2012
RCP status: NOT POSTED
Romney +1
R47, O46
http://www.reuters.com/...
National Poll
RAND
Dates: 10/23/2012-10/23/2012
RCP status: NOT POSTED
Obama +4
O49, R45
https://mmicdata.rand.org/...
National Poll
PPP
Dates: 10/21/2012-10/23/2012
RCP status: NOT POSTED
TIED
O48, R48
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
With no further delay, state polls:
State: Ohio
Survey USA Ohio
dates: 10/20/2012 - 10/22/2012
RCP Status: Posted
http://www2.ohio-votes.com/...
Obama +3
O47, R44
Obama +3 in this poll. RCP posted this one a day late along with a Rasmussen poll showing it tied, so now we know what they were waiting on. It is still troubling that none of the others have been posted, including the PPP Virginia poll, which is 3 days old now. Do they just wait for a republican poll to come out so they can post it together with a Dem poll?
State: Ohio
Rasmussen Ohio
dates: 10/23/2012
RCP Status: Posted
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Tied
O48, R48
I will take a Rasmussen tie any day.
State: Florida
Mellman Florida
dates: 10/18/2012-10/21/2012
RCP Status: NOT POSTED
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/...
Tied
O47, R47
Obama tied in Florida in this poll, but with great internals. Obama seen favorably and leading among people who have already voted as well as with Independents. RCP has Romney at +1.8 in Florida, this would bring the average down, forcing them to put a red arrow downward for Romney.
State: Virginia
Mellman Virginia
dates: 10/18/2012-10/21/2012
RCP Status: NOT POSTED
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/...
Obama +1
O46, R45
Obama +1 in Virginia with great internals. Undecideds breaking for Obama. Currently RCP has the race tied in Virginia. Adding +1 to the poll would bump the average up towards Obama.
State: Virginia
PPP Virginia
dates: 10/18/2012-10/20/2012
RCP Status: NOT POSTED
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Obama +2
O49, R47
Obama +2. This is particularly troubling for RCP because RCP uses PPP polls in their polling lists, but does not list this poll at all. Yet, this poll shows Obama ahead in Virginia and would have to show Obama with a blue arrow upwards in Virginia.
State: Virginia
Newsmax/Zogby
dates: 10/21/2012-10/23/2012
RCP Status: NOT POSTED
http://www.jzanalytics.com/
Obama +3
O49, R46
I thought long and hard about not including this one, but if RCP is going to include FOX news and Gravis polls, as well as Rasmussen with a heavy R lean, I will post this one, considering it goes along with the PPP virginia poll and shows the same results.
State: Iowa
PPP
dates: 10/18/2012-10/19/2012
RCP Status: NOT POSTED
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Obama +1
O49, R48
PPP released two polls in Iowa. One poll showed a Romney +1 lead, the other showed an Obama +1 lead. They were posted on the same day. Can you guess which RCP used? Not this one.
State: North Carolina
Grove
dates: 10/18/2012-10/19/2012
RCP Status: NOT POSTED
http://projects.newsobserver.com/...
Obama +3,
O47, R44
Obama +3. Not listed at all on RCP, Nate Silver uses it though.
State: New Hampshire
Rasmussen
dates: 10/23/2012
RCP Status: Posted
Romney +2
R50, O48
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obviously we would like to see better, but this is a Rasmussen poll after all.
State: Nevada
Rasmussen
dates: 10/23/2012
RCP Status: Posted
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Obama +2
O50, R48
Holding steady in Nevada, even in Ras.
State: Nevada
Mellman Nevada
dates: 10/15/2012-10/17/2012
RCP Status: Not Posted
http://www.scribd.com/...
Obama +8
O51, R43
Obviously good news for Obama there.