We finally got a good day of polling to talk about! Maybe it's random noise, or maybe it's a small bounce from the third and final debate, but this was a good numbers day for the President.
Almost all of trackers either stayed the same or moved in Obama's direction. Gallup went from Romney +5 to Romney +3 among likely voters, and Obama now leads their poll of registered voters by 1. IBD/TIPP went from Obama +2 yesterday to Obama +3 today. PPP went from Romney +2 to a tie. CPVoter and the RAND poll also showed movement toward the President. The Washington Post/ABC tracker (Romney +1) and Rasmussen (Romney +4) were unchanged. The Reuters/Ipsos internet poll actually moved from a 1 point Obama lead to a 1 point Romney lead. Overall, there was pretty uniform movement towards Obama with one day of post-debate numbers included.
State polling today was also encouraging. Most notably, Time Magazine showed Obama up 5 in the crucial state of Ohio. Survey USA had the margin at 3, while Rasmussen showed a tie. Average these polls, and that's a 2.5 or so lead for Obama in the most decisive state in the country. Not too shabby. Then factor in that one of the polls is Rasmussen, which has a 1-2 point Republican House effect.
Rasmussen also polled Nevada and showed Obama up 2, while PPP's new Silver State poll showed Obama +4. I'd err on the high end of those numbers when you factor in Rasmussen's lead, and the tweets I've been seeing from Nevada political guru Jon Ralston, who has hailed Obama's early vote totals. If Obama wins all the Kerry states from 2004 (he's still ahead in all of them), plus New Mexico (where he's way ahead), plus Nevada (solid lead), plus Ohio (lead), then he can win without carrying any other swing states. At this point, I'd still rather be on our team than theirs.
Speaking of other swing states, the House of Ras also showed Romney up 2 in New Hampshire. I would guess that it's about tied right now in the Granite State, though a UNH poll from the other day showed Obama up 9.
We'll see if the pattern continues over the next couple of days, but not a bad day for Team Blue.