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This diary will look at the competitive House elections in California. There are two important events that help shape this year's elections. Firstly, instead the boring old incumbent protection maps used in the last decade, Californians opted for an independent redistricting committee. Thus, several brand new competitive seats were created and Democrats have the opportunity to make some decent gains in the state.  The second issue is that California recently passed a top two primary system. Instead of separate primaries for each party, all candidates run on the same ballot, with the top two highest vote-getters advancing to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. The main concern is being careful not to run too many candidates, which could split the vote and leave a free seat that has two Republicans in the general election. Believe it or not this not new for California, which opted to test out this jungle primary system during the 1998 and 2000 elections. This article is a must read for insight about how those two elections turned out for the state and what it will mean for this year's elections. The main takeaways are:

-The electorate for the primaries is very different from the General election. In fact the primary electorate tends to be much smaller, skew more in favor or Republicans less toward Democratic minorities.

Turnout soars in California between primaries and general elections, as it does everywhere else. In 2000, over 10.4 million people voted in November after fewer than 7.9 million turned out for the primary. More than 12.3 million Californians voted in the 2008 general election, but fewer than 5 million turned out for the primary this June. The data points to one conclusion: A preponderance of the new general election voters each year favor Democrats, and that helps them improve margins from the primary
So the key here is to ensure the Democrat advances to general election whether it be first or second place.
Democratic general election candidates were far more likely to improve upon their primary showings (and to improve by a greater extent) than were Republicans. Of the 83 races in which one party clearly improved its fortunes between primary day and the general election, the net Democratic vote increased (and the net GOP vote fell) in 66 of them, while Republican vote totals improved in only 17.
Basically don't get too worked up if Democratic incumbent came in slightly behind. In many of these races (like the ones I've rated likely/lean D) you can treat the Democratic vote as a "floors that they are likely to build upon for the general, when turnout will surely increase." Instead its Republican who come in slightly behind that have to worry about the general election in which they will face a less friendly electorate. Anyways without further ado lets on get on to the competitive races. Follow me below the fold

Winning the House:
Democrats currently have 34D-19R US House Delegation Advantage.
Many of the seats are safe for one party and such I will mainly be looking at the competitive races.
I also like using the LA times Interactive site to follow along with these races.

The ratings I use are as follows:
Lock(0% chance of an opposing party win as the top 2 contain candidates from the same party)
Safe(Candidate is all but assured of a win, about 1% of chance of the opposing party winning, again it will take some major scandal or problem on the incumbent's part to make it happen)
Favored(Candidate is heavily favored, Less than 5% chance of the opposing party winning)
Likely (Candidate still has nice advantage, a 10%-15% chance of the opposing party winning)
Lean (Candidate has decent advantage, a 20%-35% chance of the opposing party pulling an upset)
Tilt (Candidate narrowly favored to win, 45% chance the opposing party wins)
Tossup (no clear favorite)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Likely Democratic (5 seats)

California's 3rd Congressional Seat
President: 55% Obama - 42% McCain
Governor: 50% Brown - 43% Whitman
Senator: 45% Boxer - 46% Fiorina

Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi was drawn into a more competitive seat which still leans democratic. The seat is similar to the old 3rd district map drawn in 1991, held by long time congressman Vic Fazio. Garamendi's main opponent was Republican County Supervisor Kim Vann. The end result of the primaries was decisive lead for Garemendi who took 52.8% of the vote compared to Vann's 25%. Garamendi will be expected to increase his margin of victory with high turnout from yolo county (one of the most Democratic countis in CA, which hasn't voted for an R president since 1952) and UC Davis this fall.
Polling:
08/27/12    GBA Strategies (D)    Garamendi 54% - Vann 39%
07/25/12    DCCC/IVR (D)         Garamendi 52% - Vann 37%

--------------------------------------------------

California's 9th Congressional seat
President: 56%Obama-41%McCain
Governor: 51%Brown-42% Whitman
Senate: 47%Boxer-45% Fiorina
District Info

With the growth of both San Joaquin County and eastern Contra Costa County the commission drew a district that includes all of Stockton and a portion of eastern Contra Costa County, including Antioch, Oakley and Brentwood. Democrats have a 9-point registration advantage here and both Obama and Brown won it. The key that kept this district Democratic is the eastern Contra Costa County portion, even though most of the population is in the Central Valley. Otherwise, it would have been a highly competitive district.
Incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney decided to run in a district that is slightly more friendlier to him that his previous district. The much hyped GOP Contender Ricky Gill, know for his fundraising prowess, ended up with a meager 39% of the vote compared to McNerney's 48%. While the combined partisan vote total is at 52-48 GOP advantage, Democrats still have a healthy registration advantage. Gill has continued to outraise McNerney and now has more cash on hand than the incumbent. But McNerney still should be favored to win in the fall as Obama should easily carry the district. Honestly if Republicans couldn't defeat McNerny in the 2010 red wave, they will have a much harder battle in a bluer district with Presidential headwinds.
Polling:
07/26/12    Tarrance Group (R)    McNerney 47% - Gill 45%
07/11/12    Lake Research (D)     McNerney 49% - Gill 33%

--------------------------------------------------------------

California's 16th Congressional seat
President: 57%Obama-40%McCain
Governor: 50%Brown-42%Whitman
Senate: 43%Boxer-47%Fiorina

Democratic Congressman Jim Costa is running in heavily Hispanic district in which Democrats have a 15-point registration advantage. In the primary Costa led the field with 42.2% of the vote while 3 Republicans split the vote. His nearest Republican opponent, Brian Daniel Whelan, mustered 25.7%. The combined partisan vote was 51.8%-48.2% Democratic advantage.While Costa has faced a close races in 2010, heavy turnout from Latino voters in the fall general election will allow him coast to a 5th term.

-------------------------------------------------------

California's 24th Congressional District
President: 56%Obama-41%McCain
Governor: 46%Brown-46%Whitman
Senate: 45%Boxer-46%Fiorina

District Info

The new district captures all of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties--two neighboring counties with very different political bents. SLO is the more conservative, largely agricultural district, while Santa Barbara leans to the left with a heavy reliance on tourism and the University of California.
Democratic Congresswoman Lois Capps was drawn into a competitive but Dem leaning district where she faced Former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado and conservative Chris Mitchum. Capps lead the field with 46.5% of the vote compared to Maldonado's 30.5%. Maldonado's has been touted as strong challenger since he represented much of the district when he was a state senator. He also carried the district against Gavin Newsom in his failed run of Lt. Gov in 2010. But Maldonado's greatest weakness comes from the fact that he has never inspired conservatives in his party. He failed to win the endorsement on the Santa Barbara County GOP, was roundly booed at state GOP convention 2010, and has earned the ire of conservative anti-tax activist Grover Norquist. Now Capps has had experience running in a swing districts before when she first ran back in 1998 for her late husband's seat. This along with a Democratic lean of the seat should be enough to ensure a Democratic victory in November.
Polls:
10/03/12    Public Opinion (R)    Maldonado 45% - Capps 44%
07/23/12   DCCC (D)                  Capps 51% - Maldonado 40%

---------------------------------------------------------

California's 47th Congressional District
President: 58%Obama-39%McCain
Governor: 50%Brown-42%Whitman
Senator: 50%Boxer-42%Fiorina

Democratic State Senator Alan Lowenthal came first with 33.3% of the vote. His nearest competitor was Republican Gary Delong who garnered 29.7% of the vote. Democratic candidates won a combined 48% of the vote in this Long beach District. Lowenthal should be able to consolidate his support in this Dem leaning district and is favored to win here.

Polling:
DCCC: Alan Lowenthal (D) 47, Gary DeLong (R) 36

------------------------------------------------------

Lean Democratic (1 seat)

California's 52nd Congressional Seat
President: 55%Obama-43%McCain
Governor: 43%Brown-50%Whitman
Senate: 42%Boxer-49%Fiorina

Incumbent Republican Brian Billbray finds himself in a tight spot as his district shifted from a seat that Obama carried with just 51% to now 55%. His Democratic competitor is  San Diego Port Commissioner Scott Peters. Although Bilbray came in first with 41.2% of the vote, his low percentage shows that he will be in deep trouble in the November election. The combined vote in the district is just a narrow 48.8%-44.6% GOP Advantage. Peters has done his best consolidate his support and even picked up the endorsement of Nathan Fletcher, a former Republican (now Independent) mayoral candidate. Recent polling from the DCCC has the race tied at 45%. Peters leads by 1 point with independents and 22 points among moderates. Still I expect Bilbray not to go down with out a fight. Both parties a spending heavily in this district.
Polling:
10/18/12    Bilbray Campaign (R)    Bilbray 48% - Peters 44%
07/18/12    Grove Insight (D)           Peters 40% - Bilbray 40%

Tilt Democratic (2 seats)

California's 26th Congressional District
President: 56%Obama-41%McCain
Governor: 46%Brown-47%Whitman
Senate: 45%Boxer-47%Fiorina

Elton Gallegly's decision to retire opened up a swing district containing the cities of Oxnard, Ventura, and thousand oaks. Democrats were very fearful of getting shut out of the top 2 system here. This was due to the fact there were a total of 4 Democrats running while conservative state senator Tony Strickland was the sole Republican. To make matters worse Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks decide to switch her party affiliation from Republican to independent. Strickland was all but assured of making it into the top 2, the big question was to be who would be his opponent. Would Democrats running split the vote and send Linda Parks to the general election? Or could Democrats coalesce behind one candidate and edge out Parks? Fearing a possible shut out Democratic groups such as Emily's list began pouring money towards Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley. It was soon discovered that Linda Parks had little funding and was even using her own home as her campaign headquarters.
As expected Tony Strickland came in first with 44.3% of the vote. Julia Brownley succeeded in making into the top to with 26.8% of the vote to Linda Parks's 18.4% setting the stage for a competitive race in the fall. The district voted for President Obama easily in 2008 but narrowly favored Whitman and Fiorina in 2010. Now Tony Strickland was a very conservative state senator it will hard for him to reach 50% in this swing district. The key way for Brownley to win will be to consolidate the votes that went to Linda Parks. I give Brownley the slight edge due to the slight Democratic advantages of the seat along with a high turnout election where President Obama should carry the district easily again. Brownley has also begun to rack up endorsements from the LA Times and The Daily News
Polls:
Daily News (07/26/2012):  Brownley 48% - Strickland 44%

-----------------------------------------------

California's 41st District
President: 59%Obama-38%McCain
Governor: 52%Brown-40%Whitman
Senator: 49%Boxer-42%Fiorina

Centered in the once conservative stronghold of the Inland Empire, changing demographics have made this once ruby red sector competitive. The new California maps created a democratic leaning minority/majority district, which contained the cities Moreno Valley and Riverside. Current conservative Republican Congressman Ken Calvert was moved into the much more Republican friendly CA-42, leaving a competitive open seat.
At a first glance this district looks like a very easy pick up as Obama won the district by 21 points, but this does not take account of the candidates running.

Democrats selected Riverside Community College trustee Mark Takano. Takano, who is no stranger to the area. He first ran here 20 years ago when the CA Courts drew a new open Riverside Congressional seat. That year he faced Republican Ken Calvert. Despite the Republican lean (R+6) Takano was able to hold Calvert to just 519 votes! The following year Calvert was caught in a prostitute scandal. Takano decided to challenge him again in the 1994 midterms. Calvert was able to make the scandal a mere footnote in the campaign and decide to viciously attack Takano's for his sexuality. Calvert ultimately triumphed by 20 points in the Republican friendly 1994 wave.

Republicans were wise to select Riverside County Supervisor John Tavagloine to be there standard bearer. The Tavaglione family has had rich history in the state as part of the good old boys network in the area. His term as county supervisor has fostered good relations with the people, so much to the point that many Democrats are amenable to voting for him. Tavaglione is not a crazy far right ideologue and instead portrays himself as a centrist. He has attempted  shown himself receptive to gay issues as he has members in his family who are either gay or transgendered. A lot of the voters here love the job he's doing as county Supervisor and wish he would have just stayed on in that position rather than run for Congress.

Many credit Takano's stellar 1992 performance in R leaning seat as reason why Takano should win this race in walk. And truth be told if Takano faced Calvert again as his opponent it would be a much easier race. But instead Takano's opponent is the well connected Tavaglione. The primary results illustrate Tavaglione's strength in the region. The election results gave Tavaglione a lead with 44.99% of the vote compared to the Takano's  36.47%. And when you total the votes the district has a GOP advantage of 54.82% to 45.18%. So Takano will have his work cut out for him in the general election. I've rated this race as Tilt Dem because Takano does have the advantage of a Dem friendly district. If he can bring the Democrats back to his base he should be able to triumph in a high turnout November election. Should Takano win he would be the first openly gay member of color in congress.
Polling:
08/12/12    EMC Research (D)    Takano 42% - Tavaglione 38%

Tossup: 2 seats

California's 7th Congressional Seat
President: 51%Obama-46%McCain
Governor: 49%Brown-44%Whitman
Senate: 42%Boxer-49%Fiorina

Incumbent Republican Congressman Dan Lungren is in the fight of his political life. Lungren himself hasn't had easy race since the 2006 election when he garnered 59% reelection vote. Since then he scored a 49% in 2008 and just 50.08% in 2010 against Democrat Ami Bera. Lungren's district has only gotten even more competitive with the new California maps and Bera is back again for a rematch. Known for his great fundraising hall in the previous election, Bera has continued to nearly draw even with Lungren this cycle. Election results gave Lungren a lead with 52.9% of the vote to Bera's 40.8%. Recent polling has had this race in tossup region
Polling:
08/23/12    Garin Hart Yang (D)    Bera 47% - Lungren 47%

------------------------------------------------------------

California's 10th Congressional District
President: 50%Obama-47%McCain
Governor: 43%Brown-49%Whitman
Senate: 39%Boxer-52%Fiorina

Freshman Republican Incumbent Jeff Denham was drawn into a competitive district which narrowly favored Obama. He faces Democratic Astronaut Jose Hernandez. Despite Denham's best efforts the Republicans failed to prevent Jose Hernandez from using his title as an astronaut for the ballot. Denham still had the advantage as he mustered a strong 49.2% of the vote compared to Hernandez's 28%. A key factor will be where Independent Candidate Chad Condit's votes go. Since the primaries the race has gotten very competitive with both parties spending heavily in the district. Expect this one to do down the wire on election night.
Polling:
10/01/12    Momentum Analysis (D)    Denham 45% - Hernandez 43%

Tilt R
California's 21st District
President: 52%Obama-46% McCain
Governor: 47%Brown-44% Whitman
Senate: 39% Boxer-50% Fiorina

This seat was supposed to be an easy hold until its sitting incumbent, Jim Costa, decided to run for Dennis Cardoza's open seat instead. Our fortunes soured even more as all the big name Democrats decided not to run. In the end the preferred establishment Dem
Candidate, Blong Xong lost to John Hernandez.  The new maps made this district more Republican, but as you can see both President Obama and Governor Brown carried it. Republican David Valadao came in a strong first place with 57% of the vote, while Xong and Hernandez split the remaining 43% of the vote. Valadao's strong finish led many pundits to shift this race into the Safe R column. But the you also have to consider that this still a Democratic leaning distinct that has a 70% Latino population. As long as the Latino vote turns out strong this November Hernandez can win. Republicans have begun scrambling as "private polling is moving the wrong way on the GOP favorite, as Valadao's campaign has taken longer than usual to kick into gear." While Hernandez has been low on the cash front he has somehow managed to churn out a few political ads which more than be said of Valadao, who has only run one ad so far. Still Valadao has 650K in his campaign war chest and with that I still will give him the slight edge in this race. Even Valadao does win here, I expect the Democrats will mount a vigorous challenge in 2014.

Polling:
10/15/12    FM3 Research (D)    Valadao 41% - Hernandez 37%
08/15/12  Moore Info(R)            Valadao 53% - Hernandez 33%          

Lean R

California's  36th Congressional District
President: 50% Obama-47% McCain
Governor: 43%Brown-49% Whitman
Senate: 42% Boxer-51% Fiorina

This district covers much of the Eastern Parts of Riverside County. Republican congresswoman Mary Bono Mack has been pretty much a fixture in the region, ever since she won this seat in 1998 after her husband, Sonny Bono, died. She has for the most part had only token opponents even as her district has slowly begun to shift to the left. Her most strongest challenge came from Palm Spring Mayor, Steve Pougnet, in 2010. But Pougnet was only able to muster 42% (which is the best showing for Democrat against Bono Mack). Redistricting moved the district ever so slightly to right as Obama had previously won 51.5% in the old configuration.
Mack received 58.2%of the vote to Democratic candidate, Raul Ruiz's 41.8%. Still in a district that is 48% Latino, Mack cannot rest on her laurels just yet. With the right election turnout Mack could be sent to an early retirement. Ruiz has been attacking Mack on a previous email from 2006 where it appeared that she referred to the Coachella (a city in her district) as a third world toilet.
Both Mack and Ruiz have traded dueling polling, with showing themselves ahead in the race. The race has continued to heat up as Mack released a information regarding Ruiz’s arrest as a college student at a “National Day of Mourning” protest of Thanksgiving. Despite this money has been pouring in from all sides. Mack has never truly faced a competitive election such this before. With the right minority turnout Ruiz could send Mack into an early retirement.  Right now I give Mack the slight edge to thanks to her financial war chest, but keep the eye on this race as election night draws near.

Polling:
08/15/12 Finkelstein and Associates(R)   Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) 55, Raul Ruiz (D) 38
08/04/12 Lake Research Partners(D)       Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R) 43, Raul Ruiz (D) 46

Remaining seats:
CA-1: Safe R
CA-2: Safe D
CA-4: Safe R
CA-5: Safe D
CA-6: Safe D
CA-8: R Lock
CA-11: Safe D
CA-12: Safe D
CA-13: Safe D
CA-14: Safe D
CA-15: D Lock
CA-17: Safe D
CA-18: Safe D
CA-19: Safe D
CA-20: Safe D
CA-22: Safe R
CA-23: Safe R
CA-25: R Favored
CA-27: Safe D
CA-28: Safe D
CA-29: Safe D
CA-30: D Lock
CA-31: R Lock
CA-32: Safe D
CA-33: Safe D
CA-34: Safe D
CA-35: D Lock
CA-37: Safe D
CA-38: Safe D
CA-39: R Favored
CA-40: D Lock
CA-42: Safe R
CA-43: D Lock
CA-44: D Lock
CA-45: R Favored
CA-46: Safe D
CA-48: R Favored
CA-49: R Favored
CA-50: Safe R
CA-51: Safe D
CA-53: Safe D

When you add up all the seats counting the likely, lean, and tilt seats you get:
28 D(from list above) + 8D (competitive)= 36D
13 R(from list above) + 2(competitive)= 15R
36 Dems, 15 Reps and 2 tossups, which would be a net gain of 2 seats right off the bat.
If the Democrats run the table and win all the competitive seats they would end up with a 6 seat gain with a 40D-13R house delegation!
So I expect the Dems to have a net gain anywhere from 2 to 6 seats this November.

Well I hope you enjoyed my diary, feel free to give me your input and comments.

4:11 AM PT: Hey everyone I'm heading to DC for the weekend, I will do my best to respond to comments when I return.


Originally posted to lordpet8 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 12:28 AM PDT.

Also republished by California politics and Community Spotlight.

Poll

What is you favorite competive CA house race?

2%5 votes
17%32 votes
5%10 votes
14%26 votes
1%2 votes
1%3 votes
3%7 votes
5%10 votes
22%41 votes
8%15 votes
3%7 votes
11%21 votes

| 180 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (39+ / 0-)

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 12:28:53 AM PDT

  •  I have been working on the Jose Hernandez (21+ / 0-)

    campaign and the Ami Bera campaign. They are so close it's heartbreaking. All they need is a little more money.

    48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam> "It is better to light a candle than to curse the darkness." Edna St.V. Millay

    by slouching on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 12:40:25 AM PDT

  •  CA-49 May become competitive - We'll see (6+ / 0-)

    I'm glad you're labeling the race as "Republican Favored instead of "Safe Republican."  I've interviewed Democratic candidate Jerry Tetalman, who is running against Darrell Issa and he says the CA-49 district is not as Republican as it used to be (that the number of Democrats and Independents has increased).

    For more information, check out my diaries:

    My Interview with Jerry Tetalman:
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Jerry Tetalman News Conference on Darrell Issa's Support of HR 6082:
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    There's also additional links that are necessary:

    Jerry Tetalman for Congress:
    http://jerryforcongress2012.com/...

    Donate:
    https://secure.actblue.com/...

    Volunteer:
    http://jerryforcongress2012.com/...

  •  Re Ca 7, (11+ / 0-)

    Dan Lungren is in the fight if his political life, as you say. He is a powerful hard right Republican leader that we are working hard to get rid of.

    We'll take volunteers from anywhere around NoCal. We certainly will take cash. Karl Rove and his superPAC friends are sending more cash this way than any other House race.

    Dr Bera is a  good progressive.

    Any and all help is very welcome.

    This is a historically red area  of a blue state, but re-districting gives us a strong fighting chance, as does support from progressives across the nation.

    We're in knocking on doors, holding rallies, calling, talking to neighbors, but as you  know, all this requires support.

    I'll keep calling everyone within this area code as long as the phones stay on. Heck, I don't even need lights! I can call in the  dark: I just need phones!

    http://beraforcongress.com/
    Thanks!

    © grover


    So if you get hit by a bus tonight, would you be satisfied with how you spent today, your last day on earth? Live like tomorrow is never guaranteed, because it's not. -- Me.

    by grover on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 03:59:14 AM PDT

  •  Target #1 for 2014 (4+ / 0-)

    CA-31.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.00, -3.54, I finally got a chance to do something my parents have done for years- vote against Tommy Thompson!!!! Tammy Baldwin for US Senate!!!!!

    by WisJohn on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 05:50:41 AM PDT

  •  Would a 6-seat CA gain be enough to get (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane, Glen The Plumber

    Nancy Pelosi into the Speaker chair again?

  •  I voted for Bera in 2010 (4+ / 0-)

    but thanks to the new maps I find myself in a different district. Nevertheless, I look forward to seeing Bera beat the crap out of Lungren this time around.

    The only trouble with retirement is...I never get a day off!

    by Mr Robert on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 02:14:19 PM PDT

  •  CA-52 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RainDog2, Glen The Plumber, UniC

    Hoping my district goes D after having lived in it for almost 40 years.   That would be oh so sweet.

    Republicans - they measure our national success by corporate profit margin, not the well being of the citizens.

    by egarratt on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 02:31:51 PM PDT

  •  Another dynamic is the D v. D races (6+ / 0-)

    What this top two primary setup has done is create scenarios in which we basically replay the same battles from back in June.  I know the emphasis is always on whether a seat flips parties, but the new primary setup also has the potential of sweeping a number of progressive incumbents out, even if the party affiliation remains the same.  And this seems to be playing out in my safe-D district.

    I live in CA-13, and my rep is Pete Stark who has represented the district for 40 years.  This district is in the East Bay, and while it crosses together a wide diversity of neighborhoods, ethnicities, and incomes, it is a very safe Democratic district.  

    Ordinarily, Stark would have faced token Republican opposition in the general election.  But, this time his opponent is fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell -- the same opponent that Stark faced in the primary.  

    Stark has not done himself any favors in this election cycle, with widely reported bizarre rantings and erratic behavior.  Given that this is a D vs. D matchup, I have not seen much polling, but my impression of the race is that Swalwell will probably win the seat.  

    Say what you will about Pete Stark, but he has been very much an outspoken liberal on most issues.  Swalwell was an intern for former Blue Dog Rep. Ellen Tauscher, and seems to model his positions and rhetoric along Tauscher's lines.  

    While this seat is guaranteed to remain in Democratic hands, the election will likely flip a staunch liberal for a blue dog moderate.  From what I've seen, there are enough Republicans, moderates, and progressives who've grown weary of Stark to make this happen.  And the CA initiative that mandated the top two primary system was INTENDED to create these scenarios.  

  •  diarists and FPer's need to stop helping... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalSal, Glen The Plumber

    Republicans sling their mud.  i live in CA-36 and we're trying to win a seat here.  repeating those desperate Republican mudslinging stories isn't helping.

    CA-36 was referenced in this front page post.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    reader's comments to all of the attack articles are nearly 100% against Mary Bono Mack and her tactics.  The Desert Sun has endorsed Ms. Mack in each election and their bias seems to be deliberately showing in this election cycle.  i'm certain they will, again, make up some lame, tenuous excuse for Ms. Mack to retain her seat.  she may have been our representative for 14 years but, as a resident of CA-36, i have seen no results in our district with her tenure.  any token gestures that may be in her record could easily have been done by a Democrat who could have done even more.

    want another sign that just maybe Republicans fear losing this race?  Crossroads GPS (Karl Rove's PAC) has begun advertising in our district.  so, please, PLEASE stop smearing the Republican mud even further by mention of their nonsense.

    donate to Dr. Raul Ruiz here

    http://www.drraulruiz.com/

    or here

    https://secure.actblue.com/...

    I'm a blue drop in a red bucket.

    by blue drop on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 03:18:55 PM PDT

    •  actually as part of DKE community (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      I feel it's important to cover all aspects of the race. The mudslinging has been part of this race for awhile now, and it will play a factor in this district.

      The important thing to note is that Democrats are not giving up on this race. In fact Ruiz recently got a nice ad buy after the Mack attacks, which shows that we still believe he can win this.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 02:56:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-24, Maldonado suddenly is swimming in $ (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Glen The Plumber, KenBee

    Or so it would seem.
    Both Maldonado (R) and Capps (D) have the cheesiest ads you've ever seen. But over the last week I'm seeing Maldonado ads nearly everywhere. On the TV, even on MSNBC--it's really a head turner when the local ad slot on the Rachel show has a solid 30 seconds of lies from your local Repub candidate. Also seeing banner ads here on my Kos feed, through location-targeted Google ads probably.

    Yes Maldonado is severely tarnished by both his record as being the key to Arnold's tax hike (that painted him as a traitor to the Republican party) and his tax woes (he is in court over nearly $4 million the IRS says he owes for false deductions).

    Just got into more trouble because he wrote off $3,686.03 of business “entertainment” expenses…except the little party raised $35,000 in campaign funds. Oops.

    But it’s all good, see, because, according to Maldonado, “Despite what is being said on dishonest TV ads, the IRS isn’t suing me, I’m suing the IRS.” OK then. That clears that up.

    BUT he's the only game in town, and the local conservative population HATES Lois Capps. She's a liberal Democrat, she's been a reliable backer of Obama, and, even worse, she's a woman. The classic anti-Capps ad around here has the bad-light picture that ages her by ten years, next to the studio portrait of Maldonado. Keepin' it classy out here on the Coast.

    Lois is a good Dem, a reliable liberal, and probably the nicest person in Congress. I mean, she's the neighbor you want to stop and chat with, have over for tea, smile when you see her at the Farmer's Market. We are working hard and hope for the best. UCSB is in session, so that block of votes should help, and Obama carried the area in 2008.

    •  I used to live in her district (0+ / 0-)

      Santa Barbara is very liberal but once you got over the Santa Ynez Mountains, it was a totally different world. It was very conservative, white and felt like Bakersfield. Santa Barbara County is like a bellwether for California. Hispanic communities, inland farming areas, beach areas, wealthy areas, poor areas and even a university area.

      In 2010 though, Republicans did well in SB County because UCSB turnout was low. We need to get it up like in 2008 in order to win. I think Capps will end up winning, she won races like this in the 90s when the district was less Democratic.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:57:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  big money for that cheesy screwball Maldonado (0+ / 0-)

      his tv ad has him saying he 'hasn 't cheated on his taxes ever, that was 21 years ago.'
      Huh?
      and Lois hasn't helped herself here with her own tax bumbling..I don't dare follow it close enough to explain it..
      SB Independent tonite:

      Lots of Outside Money for Congressional Race
      Thursday, October 25, 2012
      By Chris Meagher  

      More than $2.9 million in outside money has been pumped into the 24th District congressional race between incumbent Rep. Lois Capps and former lieutenant governor Abel Maldonado. The majority of the cash has been spent on behalf of Maldonado or against Capps, including $496,773 from Spirit of Democracy America in the last week.

      doesn't help them not giving head to head totals here but there was some dccc money reported recently... she is being shelled by money supporting this stooge.

      If Lois doesn't win......ugh...another toady in the house.

      This machine kills Fascists.

      by KenBee on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:08:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Damn... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Glen The Plumber

    ..how is it that Republican candidates are in competitive races all over the country? From California to NY to IL. In many southern states like AL, GA, MS etc the Democratic Party is nearly extinct.

    •  the Voting Rights Act (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      makes it so every seat in the Deep South is safe for one party or the other, since race and party are so correlated.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:50:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  well for starters (0+ / 0-)

      It's actually a good them Republicans are in competitive races here in CA. Remember most of these seats used to safe R, the fact that they are in new competitive seats is bad for the GOP

      As for the south, state's like AL, MS, LA, AR, are drifting to 1 party rule under Republicans, But we can still win a few minority majority house seats. Georgia looks like it may come back to our fold in the long run, so you can't give up there just yet.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 02:52:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  *correction for 1st ling (0+ / 0-)

        It's actually a good thing that Republicans

        "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

        by lordpet8 on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 02:57:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I've been doing my part (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Glen The Plumber, KenBee

    ...to move the polling needle in CA-21 for Hernandez.

    Not so easy, since I don't live in the district (I'm in 23) but somehow the polling companies have gotten the idea that I'm a resident.  I've been phone-polled three times so far.

    (BTW, for those keeping track, they're calling my cellphone.)

    America, we can do better than this...

    by Randomfactor on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:06:43 PM PDT

  •  CA26-Brownley's ground game rocks! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Glen The Plumber, KenBee

    Julia has an excellent campaign--lots of seasoned field workers, high quality com staff and a superb CM. And Julia is an awesome candidate--she does lots of voter contact and has raised prodigious sums of cash! We have every reason to be hopeful for a great GOTV and a great result.

    Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits. Satchel Paige 1906-82

    by threesmommy on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:12:30 PM PDT

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