Taking a break from politics to point out a developing situation off the Southeast Coast.
Hurricane Sandy has crossed Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and is now located in the Bahamas. The tall mountains on both islands haven't seemed to hurt it at all. Significant damage has been reported on both islands, and the city of Santiago de Cuba appears to have suffered a direct hit.
First, the latest as of this writing:
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY.
For most of this week, several forecast models have forecast Sandy to move north through the Bahamas and then turn out to sea. However, they've then turned Sandy into an exceptionally powerful extra tropical storm, and then bent it back into the coast. One model had a 932 mb low sitting off of Cape Hatteras---that's roughly equal to a Category 4 hurricane.
FishOutOfWater covered this in an excellent diary. There was considerable disagreement on this until yesterday, when almost all forecast models turned Sandy into the coast.
Why you ask? A unique situation has developed over the North Atlantic, and another one has over North America, and this is why Sandy will be blocked from picking up the westerlies as it moves north. A briefing from NWS Jacksonville.
(as an aside, I know graphics-heavy diaries are expected here. But there are several people who I know read me and I know are on dial-up. I apologize for the lack of visual aids, but I prefer to keep my diaries image-free as a courtesy for them.)
Over Greenland a high pressure system is developing. It will not budge for several days. Meanwhile a frontal system will be exiting the coast. Sandy will likely merge with this front. This front is also bringing a significant cold blast down from Canada.
This is why Sandy will be no ordinary storm.
Nor'Easters are common at any time of year along the East Coast. Nor'easters can also be as bad if not worse than hurricanes. At locales such as Cape Cod or the Jersey Shore hurricanes are not common, and they're in and out in less than a day. Not so with Nor'easters. They can pound the coast for days and as Sandy moves north and north-northwestward along the coast this is precisely what will happen. Coupled with the full moon on Monday, the coastal flooding will be unprecedented. Even if the best-case scenario occurs and Sandy does move out to sea, this will still be bad for coastal locations.
Sea surface temperatures are running above normal. While not warm enough to support a fully tropical feature, they are warm enough to fuel an exceptionally powerful storm.
Most models are placing a sub 960mb low near or off of New Jersey on Monday night. This would be a significant hurricane in its own right, but Sandy won't be a hurricane at that point. The wind-field for an extra-tropical storm is much much wider than a hurricane's. High winds, with gusts to and beyond hurricane-force, may extend for hundreds of miles from the storm center.
On the backside of Sandy cold air will flood down from Canada. That's right, that means snow for inland areas in the Appalachian Mountains. Trees are not yet bare, so that means power outages.
Now the "good" news.
Most models may be overdone. The transition between tropical and extra-tropical is a tough one for them. However, Hurricane Hazel in October 1954 transitioned immediately at its landfall in North Carolina as a Category 3/4 hurricane, and spread Category 3 force winds across the entire mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and even killed 100 people in Toronto.
Please stay tuned to your local emergency management folks about this developing situation.
10:35 AM PT: UPDATE:
If you're on twitter, the hashtag apparently being used is #Frankenstorm. It even has its own twitter account @frankenstorm1 (No, it's not me!). Twitter never disappoints.
UPDATE 2: Sandy may actually remain a hurricane up through landfall. I personally doubt it.