If you don't know what I WON means it's:
If the President holds these states on election day he'll be able to say "I won."
More specifically, he needs Ohio + Wisconsin + (Iowa or Nevada). Romney can carry the remaining true swing states (not PA, not MI) and he will still come up short.
So how are we doing in I WON?
Conveniently we have new PPP polls just released on 2 of them:
And here's Iowa:
And here's the 538 spreads on all 4 (not including these PPP polls):
Iowa polls: O+2.8, projected as finishing O+1.8
Wisconsin polls: O+3.8, projected to O+3.5
Ohio polls: O+2.9, projected O+2.2
Nevada polls: O+3.2, O+2.6
Again, that doesn't include these new PPP polls so adjust accordingly.
Two commenters prefer O WIN.
That's a good order since Ohio is so important and will report first on election night, followed by Wisc. and Iowa and finally Nevada. I don't want to be sweating the whole election on Nevada.