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If you don't know what I WON means it's:


If the President holds these states on election day he'll be able to say "I won."

More specifically, he needs Ohio + Wisconsin + (Iowa or Nevada). Romney can carry the remaining true swing states (not PA, not MI) and he will still come up short.

So how are we doing in I WON?

Conveniently we have new PPP polls just released on 2 of them:


And here's Iowa:

And here's the 538 spreads on all 4 (not including these PPP polls):

Iowa polls: O+2.8, projected as finishing O+1.8
Wisconsin polls: O+3.8, projected to O+3.5
Ohio polls: O+2.9, projected O+2.2
Nevada polls: O+3.2, O+2.6

Again, that doesn't include these new PPP polls so adjust accordingly.



Two commenters prefer O WIN.

That's a good order since Ohio is so important and will report first on election night, followed by Wisc. and Iowa and finally Nevada.  I don't want to be sweating the whole election on Nevada.


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