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Today's projection sees a bit of a boost from some new polling, with TPM and Pollster showing Obama with an average lead of 1.25%.  This produces a 3%, 117,388 vote win for Obama when partisan trends in localities, and changes in voter registration are considered.

Full projections for all 135 Virginia localities are below the orange mini-baguette.  Please peruse the numbers.

Let me address some questions from earlier projection diaries.

1) Third party voting: this should be a bit elevated this year when compared to 2008, but not the large factor that seemed possible initially according to PPP.  The election is too close and the contrast between the main candidates too stark for many people to vote third party.  If someone out there has time to put together a Super Pac for Virgil Goode, that might be helpful.   He should get close to 3% percent of the vote in his old congressional district, VA-5, but he won't be a statewide factor unless the margin is painfully thin--a few thousand votes.

2) Despite a lot of Republican overconfidence, Obama is still way ahead in absentee ballots.  These are going to be Obama's votes by a 3:2 margin.  Right now my projection has Obama with a 56,361 votes lead in absentee votes.  However, his lead in 2008 was probably larger at this time by about 17,000 votes.  The difference is largely due to fewer absentees being cast and a very slight uptick overall in absentees in Republican areas.   I can think of a dozen explanations for this, so I don't read too much into it.

3) Yard sign advantage.  I don't have hard numbers on this, but everyone from Chuck Todd to Mark Warner (and many Virginia denizens on this site) has brought up the fact that Romney seems to have a lot of signs.  I have noticed that the advantage, if there is one, melts away when you get off the main roads.  Also. I don't think this is a particular sign of strength.  If yard signs could vote or do GOTV Terry Kilgore would have crushed Tim Kaine is the 2006 Gubenatorial race.  The opposite happened.  I'll take the money spent on ground operations over a few more signs on the roads any day.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
COUNTY/CITY Obama Romney Margin %Obama %Romney 08Margin
ACCOMACK
  COUNTY
7578.457 8713.675 -1135.22 45.82% 52.69% -226
ALBEMARLE
  COUNTY
32750.28 23246.75 9503.525 57.62% 40.90% 9216
ALEXANDRIA
  CITY
55469.54 21491.77 33977.77 71.00% 27.51% 31292
ALLEGHANY
  COUNTY
3302.862 3927.77 -624.908 45.00% 53.51% -162
AMELIA
  COUNTY
2455.292 4545.549 -2090.26 34.55% 63.96% -1482
AMHERST
  COUNTY
5933.7 9564.417 -3630.72 37.72% 60.80% -2376
APPOMATTOX
  COUNTY
2537.733 5522.219 -2984.49 31.02% 67.50% -2262
ARLINGTON
  COUNTY
89922.45 34770.39 55152.06 71.04% 27.47% 49118
AUGUSTA
  COUNTY
9590.702 26384.46 -16793.8 26.26% 72.25% -13295
BATH
  COUNTY
933.8042 1416.935 -483.131 39.13% 59.38% -306
BEDFORD
  CITY
1135.689 1603.534 -467.844 40.84% 57.67% -289
BEDFORD
  COUNTY
10642.15 27740.79 -17098.6 27.31% 71.20% -13403
BLAND
  COUNTY
791.5495 2292.133 -1500.58 25.29% 73.23% -1167
BOTETOURT
  COUNTY
5308.854 12775.87 -7467.01 28.92% 69.59% -5778
BRISTOL
  CITY
2522.569 5135.696 -2613.13 32.45% 66.06% -1914
BRUNSWICK
  COUNTY
4801.942 2945.438 1856.504 61.06% 37.45% 2096
BUCHANAN
  COUNTY
3435.952 5065.814 -1629.86 39.81% 58.70% -478
BUCKINGHAM
  COUNTY
3449.586 3747.318 -297.732 47.22% 51.29% 61
BUENA
  VISTA CITY
1129.808 1546.016 -416.208 41.59% 56.92% -174
CAMPBELL
  COUNTY
7669.125 19294.08 -11625 28.02% 70.49% -9353
CAROLINE
  COUNTY
7442.695 6383.365 1059.33 53.03% 45.48% 1546
CARROLL
  COUNTY
3865.809 9137.658 -5271.85 29.29% 69.23% -4078
CHARLES
  CITY COUNTY
2760.8 1338.961 1421.838 66.34% 32.17% 1550
CHARLOTTE
  COUNTY
2440.71 3423.542 -982.832 41.00% 57.51% -667
CHARLOTTESVILLE
  CITY
18695.05 4779.45 13915.6 78.46% 20.06% 11627
CHESAPEAKE
  CITY
53769.3 57680.33 -3911.03 47.53% 50.98% 1369
CHESTERFIELD
  COUNTY
77399.7 96883.82 -19484.1 43.75% 54.76% -12103
CLARKE
  COUNTY
3522.492 4344.438 -821.946 44.11% 54.40% -383
COLONIAL
  HEIGHTS CITY
2394.198 6567.629 -4173.43 26.32% 72.19% -3599
COVINGTON
  CITY
1221.819 1113.239 108.5802 51.55% 46.97% 284
CRAIG
  COUNTY
810.7197 1905.503 -1094.78 29.40% 69.11% -818
CULPEPER
  COUNTY
9163.374 12353.14 -3189.77 41.95% 56.56% -1909
CUMBERLAND
  COUNTY
2205.042 2558.786 -353.743 45.60% 52.91% -163
DANVILLE
  CITY
12086.21 8202.126 3884.087 58.69% 39.83% 3991
DICKENSON
  COUNTY
2849.628 3521.925 -672.297 44.06% 54.45% -46
DINWIDDIE
  COUNTY
6201.358 7287.024 -1085.67 45.29% 53.22% -280
EMPORIA
  CITY
1741.105 949.9119 791.1929 63.74% 34.77% 805
ESSEX
  COUNTY
3057.678 2662.118 395.5597 52.66% 45.85% 555
FAIRFAX
  CITY
6462.394 4765.25 1697.144 56.70% 41.81% 1884
FAIRFAX
  COUNTY
328524.6 219494 109030.6 59.06% 39.46% 109365
FALLS
  CHURCH CITY
5263.447 2236.791 3026.656 69.13% 29.38% 2725
FAUQUIER
  COUNTY
14918.76 21769.57 -6850.81 40.06% 58.45% -4611
FLOYD
  COUNTY
2789.713 4892.3 -2102.59 35.77% 62.74% -1504
FLUVANNA
  COUNTY
6094.492 6797.99 -703.498 46.57% 51.94% -235
FRANKLIN
  CITY
2693.759 1606.722 1087.037 61.71% 36.81% 1243
FRANKLIN
  COUNTY
9317.981 17390.71 -8072.73 34.37% 64.14% -5796
FREDERICK
  COUNTY
13821.24 24262.31 -10441.1 35.75% 62.76% -7188
FREDERICKSBURG
  CITY
7790.879 4513.372 3277.507 62.38% 36.14% 2742
GALAX CITY 944.5577 1389.021 -444.463 39.87% 58.64% -265
GILES
  COUNTY
2929.518 4930.19 -2000.67 36.72% 61.79% -1270
GLOUCESTER
  COUNTY
6647.905 13627.5 -6979.59 32.30% 66.21% -5173
GOOCHLAND
  COUNTY
4740.24 8649.414 -3909.17 34.88% 63.64% -2830
GRAYSON
  COUNTY
2241.428 4942.809 -2701.38 30.74% 67.78% -2060
GREENE
  COUNTY
3368.071 5917.34 -2549.27 35.73% 62.78% -1806
GREENSVILLE
  COUNTY
2987.923 1809.47 1178.452 61.36% 37.16% 1393
HALIFAX
  COUNTY
7971.435 9100.092 -1128.66 46.00% 52.51% -474
HAMPTON
  CITY
49525.05 21923.8 27601.25 68.28% 30.23% 26441
HANOVER
  COUNTY
18099.16 42106.67 -24007.5 29.61% 68.90% -18897
HARRISONBURG
  CITY
9726.69 7127.787 2598.903 56.85% 41.66% 2396
HENRICO
  COUNTY
91556.18 74119.61 17436.57 54.44% 44.07% 18942
HENRY
  COUNTY
10148.13 14163.42 -4015.29 41.12% 57.39% -2640
HIGHLAND
  COUNTY
482.6303 881.1051 -398.475 34.86% 63.65% -340
HOPEWELL
  CITY
5259.812 4297.299 962.5133 54.22% 44.30% 1136
ISLE OF
  WIGHT COUNTY
8540.726 12846.85 -4306.13 39.34% 59.17% -2685
JAMES CITY
  COUNTY
18197.13 24371.1 -6173.96 42.11% 56.40% -3560
KING &
  QUEEN COUNTY
1833.57 1895.22 -61.6503 48.44% 50.07% 155
KING
  GEORGE COUNTY
4819.241 7139.603 -2320.36 39.70% 58.81% -1415
KING
  WILLIAM COUNTY
3334.909 5694.437 -2359.53 36.38% 62.13% -1622
LANCASTER
  COUNTY
3026.229 3696.294 -670.065 44.35% 54.17% -412
LEE COUNTY 2834.105 6557.452 -3723.35 29.73% 68.78% -2606
LEXINGTON
  CITY
1858.868 1162.199 696.6686 60.61% 37.90% 629
LOUDOUN
  COUNTY
87325.02 78880.47 8444.545 51.76% 46.75% 11509
LOUISA
  COUNTY
7108.331 9441.095 -2332.76 42.31% 56.20% -1204
LUNENBURG
  COUNTY
2530.296 2981.31 -451.014 45.23% 53.29% -197
LYNCHBURG
  CITY
18215.7 21832.65 -3616.95 44.81% 53.70% -1369
MADISON
  COUNTY
2739.854 4052.323 -1312.47 39.74% 58.77% -896
MANASSAS
  CITY
8460.021 6979.955 1480.065 53.98% 44.53% 1543
MANASSAS
  PARK CITY
2865.349 1964.166 901.1822 58.45% 40.07% 829
MARTINSVILLE
  CITY
3972.92 2253.926 1718.994 62.85% 35.66% 1828
MATHEWS
  COUNTY
1767.833 3711.115 -1943.28 31.79% 66.73% -1522
MECKLENBURG
  COUNTY
7004.661 8378.12 -1373.46 44.86% 53.65% -690
MIDDLESEX
  COUNTY
2202.479 3772.505 -1570.03 36.31% 62.20% -1154
MONTGOMERY
  COUNTY
22615.93 22341.63 274.304 49.56% 48.96% 2003
NELSON
  COUNTY
4199.092 3815.04 384.052 51.62% 46.90% 744
NEW KENT
  COUNTY
3615.662 7719.558 -4103.9 31.42% 67.09% -2892
NEWPORT
  NEWS CITY
53027.35 30015.58 23011.77 62.91% 35.61% 23305
NORFOLK
  CITY
64182.38 26140.81 38041.57 70.00% 28.51% 38005
NORTHAMPTON
  COUNTY
3580.182 2791.17 789.0121 55.36% 43.16% 1087
NORTHUMBERLAND
  COUNTY
3175.291 4307.879 -1132.59 41.80% 56.71% -729
NORTON
  CITY
701.7737 846.2625 -144.489 44.66% 53.85% -1
NOTTOWAY
  COUNTY
3198.908 3634.833 -435.925 46.11% 52.40% -86
ORANGE
  COUNTY
7115.737 9529.513 -2413.78 42.11% 56.40% -1399
PAGE
  COUNTY
3969.391 6441.598 -2472.21 37.56% 60.95% -1806
PATRICK
  COUNTY
2699.049 6018.533 -3319.48 30.50% 68.01% -2612
PETERSBURG
  CITY
14996.43 1673.336 13323.1 88.62% 9.89% 12191
PITTSYLVANIA
  COUNTY
10968.73 20133.26 -9164.53 34.74% 63.77% -7315
POQUOSON
  CITY
1614.252 5736.966 -4122.71 21.63% 76.88% -3481
PORTSMOUTH
  CITY
32389.74 14771.21 17618.53 67.66% 30.85% 18343
POWHATAN
  COUNTY
4169.026 11808.85 -7639.83 25.70% 72.81% -5851
PRINCE
  EDWARD COUNTY
5249.13 4557.396 691.7339 52.73% 45.78% 927
PRINCE
  GEORGE COUNTY
7212.179 9777.214 -2565.03 41.82% 56.69% -1622
PRINCE
  WILLIAM COUNTY
109045.3 82629.91 26415.34 56.04% 42.47% 25814
PULASKI
  COUNTY
5436.002 9630.758 -4194.76 35.54% 62.97% -2939
RADFORD
  CITY
3011.951 2727.25 284.7015 51.70% 46.81% 512
RAPPAHANNOCK
  COUNTY
2025.454 2377.836 -352.382 45.31% 53.20% -122
RICHMOND
  CITY
80298.22 20092.15 60206.07 78.80% 19.72% 54974
RICHMOND
  COUNTY
1540.498 2236.984 -696.486 40.17% 58.34% -474
ROANOKE
  CITY
24914.32 16414.84 8499.479 59.39% 39.13% 9540
ROANOKE
  COUNTY
18869.77 33415.83 -14546.1 35.55% 62.96% -10759
ROCKBRIDGE
  COUNTY
4214.647 6397.312 -2182.67 39.13% 59.39% -1385
ROCKINGHAM
  COUNTY
10413.3 25669.32 -15256 28.43% 70.08% -12015
RUSSELL
  COUNTY
4553.53 7169.963 -2616.43 38.26% 60.25% -1457
SALEM CITY 4980.612 7828.17 -2847.56 38.31% 60.21% -1924
SCOTT
  COUNTY
2384.969 7696.63 -5311.66 23.30% 75.21% -4255
SHENANDOAH
  COUNTY
6830.514 13542.68 -6712.17 33.03% 65.48% -5093
SMYTH
  COUNTY
3883.144 8755.877 -4872.73 30.27% 68.25% -3578
SOUTHAMPTON
  COUNTY
4221.853 5111.486 -889.632 44.56% 53.95% -181
SPOTSYLVANIA
  COUNTY
25979.67 33056.4 -7076.73 43.35% 55.16% -3713
STAFFORD
  COUNTY
27623.82 34556.25 -6932.43 43.76% 54.75% -3505
STAUNTON
  CITY
5768.474 5834.709 -66.2348 48.98% 49.54% 239
SUFFOLK
  CITY
23382.24 18639.51 4742.731 54.82% 43.70% 5281
SURRY
  COUNTY
2522.62 1748.6 774.0195 58.18% 40.33% 963
SUSSEX
  COUNTY
3214.998 2109.063 1105.935 59.49% 39.02% 1275
TAZEWELL
  COUNTY
4964.681 12655.2 -7690.52 27.76% 70.76% -5605
VIRGINIA
  BEACH CITY
98946.26 109318.8 -10372.5 46.80% 51.71% -1434
WARREN
  COUNTY
7092.227 10156.18 -3063.96 40.51% 58.01% -1882
WASHINGTON
  COUNTY
7608.789 18161.86 -10553.1 29.09% 69.43% -8014
WAYNESBORO
  CITY
3803.4 5161.799 -1358.4 41.79% 56.72% -909
WESTMORELAND
  COUNTY
4571.244 4073.249 497.9952 52.09% 46.42% 858
WILLIAMSBURG
  CITY
5762.304 3253.571 2508.733 62.96% 35.55% 1975
WINCHESTER
  CITY
5201.774 4966.275 235.499 50.40% 48.12% 543
WISE
  COUNTY
4478.575 10201.84 -5723.27 30.05% 68.46% -3919
WYTHE
  COUNTY
3851.527 9246.719 -5395.19 28.97% 69.54% -4100
YORK
  COUNTY
13379.12 21954.21 -8575.1 37.30% 61.21% -6133
TOTALS 2049389 1932001 117388.1 50.71% 47.80% 234527

Originally posted to Twodaiquiris on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 03:22 PM PDT.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

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