Today was a day of dichotomies. First, there were national polls vs. state polls. The national polls moved, on average, slightly towards Mittens today. The state polls were mostly, though certainly not exclusively, positive for the President. Luckily, we elect a President through the electoral college, so that's a net winner for Obama. The other dichotomy was between PPP, which showed superb numbers for Obama today, and everyone else, who showed very mediocre numbers. Balance it all out, and today was a status quo day polling-wise.
First the national polls, which were all trackers today. A couple of trackers moved towards Romney, including the IBD/TIPP poll (from Obama +3 to Obama +2) and most ominously, the ABC/Washington Post poll, which moved from Romney +1 to Romney +3. ABC/WaPo gets a lot of mainstream attention, and it also is a pretty good poll, so that number hurts. Also, an angel loses its wings when a quality poll shows Romney at 50%. But for now, it could just be random noise.
Rasmussen moved from Romney +4 to Romney +3, and PPP moved from a tie to a one point Obama lead. Gallup (both RV and LV), and Reuters/Ipsos stayed the same.
The state polls offered a prettier picture overall. There were three new polls from Colorado. PPP had the most optimistic numbers, showing Obama up 4, which is a point gained for the President since last week. Another Democratic firm showed Obama up 3, while NBC/WSJ has the state tied. These are overall very positive numbers. Obama does not need Colorado if he wins Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin. But if he does get it, it would give him more paths to 270. These polls indicate that the race there is a dead heat.
Virginia also looks very close. PPP again had rosy numbers, showing Obama up 5. Newsmax/Zogby had Obama up 2, while Fox has Romney up 2. Again, this is a bonus state in Obama's electoral calculation and it is eminently winnable at this point.
Three Florida polls were out. The House of Ras has Romney up 2, which is a pretty good number from a Republican firm. Gravis Marketing, which also leans Republican, only has Romney up 1, while the Democratic firm, Project New America, showed Obama ahead by 2.
The good news kept coming all day from PPP. They also had Obama up 2 points in Iowa, 6 in Wisconsin, and tied in North Carolina. If their view of the states is correct (and I suspect it's a little too Obama-friendly), then we could be looking at an electoral landslide.
Overall, a day of heavy polling indicates some good news for Romney nationally, and some good news for Obama at the state level. If we were just looking at PPP numbers, I'd be tempted to go up to 7 or 8, but for now we'll stick with a 5.