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I don't know if you've read David Nir's recent journal on Pharos Research, a brand new polling firm based in North Dakota but you should it's worth a read:

http://www.dailykos.com/...

So this new firm has a lot of polling out and it has a lot of positive polling for Democrats both in Senate and Presidential Swing State polling.  One of these polls showed former Governor and U.S. Senator Bob Kerrey (D) now two points behind Tea Party Republican Deb Fischer (R), 48-46:

In the Senate race, the race has tightened significantly against the previous two polls we have released.  While the race is still outside of the margin of error, in three weeks, Kerrey has narrowed the gap from eight to six, while Fischer is still under 50%.  That said, Fischer is knocking on the door to a majority in the polling,
and her strong rural support should offset Kerrey’s advantage in the 2nd and in
Lincoln in the 1st CD.  We see no reason to quarrel with those who have suggested
that the race is likely Republican in three weeks, but the dynamics of the race, and
the fact that Kerrey closed fast in his 1982 race for Governor, suggest that the race
remains worth watching. - Pharos Research
Now according to Nir's journal after getting in touch Pharos, they too are a little skeptical about that number too.  Their other polling numbers seem to be following trends and they acknowledge that both the Indiana and North Dakota races are very competitive as well.  Also, Kerrey's internal polling showed him gaining but still five points behind Fischer:

http://www.scribd.com/...

Still though to go from a 16 points deficit in a very red state like Nebraska is impressive.  Now lets look at some highlights from both Paharos and Kerrey's internal polling, Hickman Analytics.  First Hickman:

http://www.scribd.com/...

This memo is based on a sample of 600 likely 2012 general election voters in Nebraska.Telephone interviewing was conducted October 14 th–16 th , 2012. The sample was selected so all likely voters in Nebraska were equally likely to be contacted, and included both landline and cell phone numbers. The results were adjusted slightly to align the sample with known facts about the demographic composition of the state.

The 2012 Nebraska Senate race remains competitive. Deb Fisher is only five points ahead of Bob Kerrey in the current horserace. Her personal popularity has eroded significantly since thehoneymoon period after the Republican primary: her unfavorable rating now more than double what itwas then, and her favorable rating is statistically in
distinguishable from Kerrey’s. Kerrey is putting together the coalition he needs to win majority support. The outcome of the race remains uncertain asabout one in five voters are either undecided or admitting that they might switch candidates before election day.  

More significantly, Kerrey now has the support of 17% of registered Republicans. Thus, while the Republican registration advantage continues to be the main source of Fischer’s lead in vote preference, Kerrey is within striking distance of the coalition Democrats like Kerrey, Ben Nelson, and Jim Exon haveforged to win majority support in this Republican state.

Hickman also points out that despite Fischer's slight edge, Kerrey is still more well known:
Our focus groups find that eventhis level of recognition is quite shallow, with few swing voters -- including those inclined to vote forFischer -- aware of even the most basic information about her. Our research also demonstrates that thislack of familiarity makes Fischer exceedingly vulnerable to credible unfavorable information about hersuch as the advertising that just began.
So if Kerrey is more well-known and Fischer is more vulnerable than she appears, why is Kerrey still behind in the polls?  Well this might have something to do with it:
It is worth a reminder that robo-polls are particularly susceptible to inaccurate vote estimates inNebraska. First, robo-polls are prohibited by law from calling cell phones. This makes a difference in therepresentativeness of the sample, since fully 30% of adults in the state rely exclusively on a cell phonewithout access to a landline number, and Kerrey does particularly well with cell phone respondents.

Second, most robo-polls make no adjustment for the geographic location of the respondents andsignificantly over-represent rural voters. This makes a difference in the horserace since Kerrey, like mostDemocrats, does better in urban areas in eastern Nebraska, and the most prominent knowledge of Fischer is her background as a rancher. Third, robo-polls over-represent older voters which also lead them to underestimate Kerrey’s support.

Hickman concludes that Kerrey has been successful at distancing himself from President Obama and creating a coalition of Democratic and Republican voters.  They also conclude that Fischer's lead is weak and that she is vulnerable.  Now on to Pharos analysis:
Pharos Research Group did a live call poll of 785 likely voters in Nebraska from October 12, 2012 through October 14, 2012. The breakdown was 385 men, 400 women, representing a 49%/51% split. There were 246 self-identified Democrats, 338 self-identified Republicans and 201 Independents representing a 31/43/25 split.

In the Senate race, the race has tightened significantly against the previous two polls we have released. While the race is still outside of the margin of error, in three weeks, Kerrey has narrowed the gap from eight to six, while Fischer is still under 50%. That said, Fischer is knocking on the door to a majority in the polling, and her strong rural support should offset Kerrey’s advantage in the 2nd and in Lincoln in the 1st CD. We see no reason to quarrel with those who have suggested that the race is likely Republican in three weeks, but the dynamics of the race, and the fact that Kerrey closed fast in his 1982 race for Governor, suggest that the race remains worth watching.

I like many people here wrote this race off and I am a little skeptical because of how red Nebraska is and how long Kerrey has been out of Nebraska that it's hard to believe this race is tightening.  But TPM and the Omaha World-Herlad have taken notice of Pharos poll and acknowledge that the race is tightening:

http://www.omaha.com/...

The pollsters interviewed fewer Republicans than the percentage of registered GOP voters in Nebraska. They also talked to a lot more independent voters.

About 43 percent of the poll's sample came from those who identified themselves as registered Republicans. In Nebraska, about 48 percent of the state's registered voters are Republicans.

About 26 percent of the poll's sample came from registered independents. In Nebraska, about 19 percent of the state's registered voters are independent.

The poll's Democratic sample was almost on the mark. It sampled 31.4 percent of registered Democrats. In Nebraska, about 32 percent of the state's registered voters are Democrats. - Omaha World-Herlad, 10/25/12

TPM now has the race in Leans Republican category after being in the Favors Republican category for a while now:

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

It's only a little surprising that Kerrey might be coming up in the polls with his track record for running in tight elections and he has been campaigning like no other:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Kerrey, a former governor, senator and one-time presidential candidate, isn't giving up. He has continued to advertise heavily in the state, released a quirky video with comedian Steve Martin to support his campaign and portrayed Fischer as a rubber stamp for conservative Republicans.

"She's promised to be a reliable vote for the Republican caucus ... and I think it's likely that the problems that we have as a consequence of this hyper-partisanship will get greater," Kerrey said in an interview.

Kerrey has tried to reconnect with Nebraska voters but admits he has struggled with being labeled as a carpetbagger from New York in ads made by outside spending from groups like the Karl Rove-backed Crossroads GPS.

Kerrey supporter Susan Scarborough, of Grand Island, Neb., said Kerrey's long history with the state means she could never see him as anything other than a Nebraskan.

Scarborough says she is leaning toward voting for Romney on the presidential level but will cast her ballot in the Senate race for Kerrey. She said she has heard from others who will do the same.

The question is whether there are enough voters like Scarborough. Fischer, who is running her first statewide race, has presented herself as an unapologetic conservative and a fresh face for Nebraska voters.

David Kramer, a former GOP state chairman and the party's Senate nominee in 2006, says the race has tightened since a recent Omaha World Herald poll showed Fischer with about a 10-point lead. He attributes that to Kerrey's feistiness and his track record with Nebraskans. - Huffington Post, 10/26/12

I think we should keep our eye on this race.  This could very well be another split ticket race where like in Montana, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia and North Dakota where the states will go to Romney in the Presidential election but because the GOP Senate candidates are too extreme for the red states, voters will go with the Democrats in the Senate.  Lets keep checking back because it would be great to get 58 seats this year.  I'm not a big fan of Bob Kerrey but I certainly don't want more Tea Party extremists like Deb Fischer in the Senate.  You can read more about Fischer here:

From WePartyPatriots:


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http://www.dailykos.com/...

And here from jgkojak:


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http://www.dailykos.com/...

If you feel this race is still winnable, please donate to Kerrey's campaign.  I will be keeping my eye on this race:


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https://secure.actblue.com/...

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Comment Preferences

  •  he is surging (7+ / 0-)

    but that was expected actually. He was way too popular in the state to lose by 15 points. I think he still loses by about 5 points come election day bc of just how much hatred there is for obama in that red state but if anyone can pull it out, it would be kerrey.

  •  Interesting.. (7+ / 0-)

    ..the rotting essence of Mourdock & Akin is beginning to seep into all senatorial races it appears.

    2 crazy teabaggers have acted as the tide that raises all Democratic ships.

    Maybe the Romney campaign can intervene & photoshop away Fischer's decline.

    "You just gotta keep on livin man! L-I-V-I-N!" - Wooderson

    by wyvern on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:08:36 PM PDT

    •  Is Kerrey trying to hook her into the (0+ / 0-)

      woman-hating rape sympathizers club?

      For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

      by Anne Elk on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:17:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Isn't she too smart for that? (0+ / 0-)

        Hard to imagine Fischer being dumb enough to take that bait, but then again I wouldn't have believed any Senate candidate would say rape pregnancies are God's gift to the lucky woman.

        •  She might rise to it if she were asked, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          "If abortion were made illegal, would you support prison terms for women who have them? If so, would it be life imprisonment since it's murder, right?" No matter what the answer, even if there's a no comment, there is hay to be made.

          For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

          by Anne Elk on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:39:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I still think (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson

    Fischer is going to win this but I hope that I'm proven wrong.

  •  Probably would b favored if he moved back earlier (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a gilas girl, terjeanderson

    I think he needed to be back in Nebraska a good two years to shed the carpet bagger label.

    He has a shot, but its an outside shot. Id say about 20-25%

  •  Certainly possible (0+ / 0-)

    Kerrey's a very good campaigner, he's gotten himself out of jams before, and Fischer is an unusually extreme Republican.  Against that, Nebraska is a bit more conservative than it used to be.

  •  Being from Omaha... (7+ / 0-)

    and seeing the ads on TV, I wouldn't be surprised.  Kerry is attacking Fisher about a land deal and Fisher taking land away from elderly people all for cattle grazing.  Fisher is on the defensive.  She's coming across conniving, mean-spirited, and nasty.

    Up until lately she was the stronger candidate.  Now, it could be close.  But there a TON of Fisher signs all around the city. Not many Kerry, but then again, everyone knows who Bob Kerry is.  Hope it helps.

  •  Kerrey has an effective neg ad (0+ / 0-)

    against Fischer regarding her attempted land grab of a neighbor's ranch. Her recent ads have been a very weak defense to the land grab accusation.

  •  Fischer is due (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomFromNJ, Woody

    ... to deliver the next GOP rape comment any day now.  Why not let Nebraska in on all the fun?

  •  If Kerrey wins... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO, Wreck Smurfy, llywrch, Woody

    Then this is a huge wave election and we win all kinds of races we weren't expecting to. I don't think he'll win mostly because I don't think that's the kind of year we're going to have, but that's what it'd take, I think.

  •  the ads are good. especially the second (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    on this page
    http://www.fischerlandgrab.com/...

    58.  could happen.

    what lincoln said http://cleantechnica.com/2012/10/10/abraham-lincoln-was-on-to-wind-power-long-before-the-rest/

    by rasfrome on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:44:25 PM PDT

  •  Fischer is one of the 12 GOP Senate candidates (6+ / 0-)

    that oppose abortion even in the case of rape. The full list is:

    Richard Murdock (IN)
    Rick Berg (ND)
    Michael Baumgartner (WA)
    Pete Hoekstra (MI)
    Tom Smith (PA)
    Todd Akin (MO)
    Josh Mandel(OH)
    Deb Fischer(NE)
    Ted Cruz (TX)
    John MacGovern (VT)
    Wendy Long (NY)
    John Raese (WV).

    Fortunately 9 of them have no chance. Crux (TX) is likely to win, and hopefully we can stop Berg (ND) and Fischer.

    David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

    by Dave in AZ on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:46:36 PM PDT

  •  Maybe someone watched a debate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath, Woody

    I thought a debate I saw between them was very revealing.  As I described it earlier, Fischer was virtually saying, with a sleazy scary smile

    Now, now little doggy, come on in.  We'll get rid of those nasty balls right away
    Kerrey's tone, meanwhile, was saying
    You people are stupid!
    I've read a lot about how terrible Kerrey is.  I'm not so sure. In any case, I'll take his semi-arrogant abruptness any day, thank you (and his acknowledgement of climate change), when the alternative is --- her.  

    I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

    by tle on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:48:29 PM PDT

  •  NE-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath, llywrch, Woody

    If Kerrey is really only 2 pts. behind than there  is no doubt in my mind that he will win..Momentum is the enitre story and the r candidate in NE will be hurt further by the Murdoch fiasco as she believes the same. I'm still calling new senate 58-42

  •  The surest sign yet Mourdock is a goner? (5+ / 0-)

    Dick Morris says he's "alive and kicking and may be able yet to keep the Indiana seat Republican".

    So all is not lost. Despite himself, Mourdock still has a solid chance of winning. He is a reliable conservative and, as we have seen, honest to a fault, and deserves all the support he can get.  
    LOL. As Savid Nir pointed out this morning, Mourdock is touting an internal that shows him tied. TPM has a 10/24-10/25 Anzalone-Liszt polls conducted for the DSCC that has Donnelly up 47-40, and their poll tracker has it 44.4-40.5 Donnelly.

    David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

    by Dave in AZ on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 02:54:27 PM PDT

  •  Having met him at the DNC in 1992, (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rich in PA, housesella, Woody

    and having my wife work with him briefly a few years back, I can tell you if he loses my sorrow will be brief and insincere.

    Of course the alternative is worse...sort of like the choice between eating from the dumpster vs. starving to death.

    Go Bob.

    I can't believe our election is being decided by people who can't tell the difference between republicans and democrats...that's like letting a dog choose what color to paint your house.

    by PBJ Diddy on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:04:08 PM PDT

  •  I hope Nebraska Democrats are smart enough (0+ / 0-)

    to not vote for Bob Kerrey.

    As of today, we're on track to wind up with 54 Dem senators (55 if Rasmussen is ignored).

    Kerrey would be poisonous in the Senate. He's the kind of DINO who lends a "bi-partisan" veneer to reactionary Republican legislation.

    If we were in danger of losing our majority, I could see the justification for holding our noses and voting for Kerrey, but that's NOT the situation.

    Romney's secret plan for a revenue neutral tax cut sounds like McCain's secret plan to end the war in Iraq.

    by WisePiper on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:10:59 PM PDT

    •  Are you serious? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AgentOfProgress, terjeanderson

      Let's not forget who the only Democrat in the Senate to sign on to the Ryan budget was. Not Joe Manchin. Not Ben Nelson. Ron Wyden, "progressive".

      •  Actually, I am quite serious. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HappyinNM, rmx2630

        Wyden has explained what he was doing strategically with that early co-sign - but he does NOT support the Ryan budget.

        Overall, Kerrey makes Manchin look like a wild eyed left wing radical. We don't NEED Kerrey. Wherever we can it's imperative for the long term health of the party to weed out those who compromise the brand.

        Romney's secret plan for a revenue neutral tax cut sounds like McCain's secret plan to end the war in Iraq.

        by WisePiper on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:34:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, Wyden does have a dark side (0+ / 0-)

        He's pulled crap like that in the past (some of his stances on Internet-related legislation has been just plain awful), but then he'll turn around & champion something important no one else would touch.

        If the Republicans could find a true moderate to run against him, they just might be able to kick him out of office. (I doubt a candidate from the Greens or the Libertarians would do better than 30%, even if the Republicans nominated a bona-fide Teabagger wacko.) But if we're going to dream about the unimaginable, there's a lot of progressive legislation I'd rather see Congress pass before that candidate ever appears.

    •  More and Better Democrats (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dave in AZ, meralda, terjeanderson, Woody

      More Democrats in Nebraska.

      Better Democrats in Connecticut.

      If you are a Democrat who lives in Nebraska you take what you can get.

      “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

      by RoIn on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:30:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MrLiberal, terjeanderson, RoIn, Woody

        absolutely.........ben nelson was no gem, but he was better than Mike Johanns. Bob Kerrey might not be a Barbara Boxer, but he is the best Dem you can get out of NE.

        this "don't vote for Kerrey" nonsense is bullshit. he will support Reid for majority leader....and would help to reform the filibuster (if i understood him right).  either way, he is WAY better than Fisher.

        i did not love voting for Ben Nelson....but when you live in NE, you take the best Dem that can get elected and you thank the FSM he/she isn't as batshit crazy as the Republicans.

        VOTE FOR KERREY, Nebraskans!

      •  I could not disagree more strongly. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AgentOfProgress

        "More and Better Democrats," with inordinate reliance on the former, is a significant contributor to the enthusiasm gap between the parties. Our brand is all over the map, and DINOs voting with Republicans is, as I wrote in my original comment, what makes ugly Republican legislation "bi-partisan" in the eyes of the public.

        When we have an opportunity to jettison one of these DINOs, without jeopardizing majority control, we should do so. We certainly should not ADD to their ranks.

        You want to strengthen the Democratic party in Nebraska? Deb Fischer in the Senate will do a hell of a lot more to advance that goal than having Kerrey in there, blurring the lines between what the Dems stand for and what the Repubs stand for.

        For the sake of our party and its traditional people-centered platform, we must transition from "More and Better Democrats" to "Just Enough and Better Democrats." Just enough Dems to retain majority control, and steady efforts to grow the ranks of better Democrats.

        Again, six years of Fischer in the Senate, and Nebraska will be begging for a Democratic senator in 2018.

        Romney's secret plan for a revenue neutral tax cut sounds like McCain's secret plan to end the war in Iraq.

        by WisePiper on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:19:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  no (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          terjeanderson, sagesource, Woody, RoIn, Ectoras

          do you live in NE? it doesn't matter what NE Dems beg for. It only matters what they can elect. I lived in NE for 10 years, and recently moved to ND temporarily...will be back in NE next year.

          You can pretend the purist view will matter, but it won't. NE Dems themselves are not as progressive (as a unit) as Dems in blue states. They are pretty damn progressive for being in one of the reddest states, but we know damn well that our nominees cannot be perceived to be "liberal"....or they will go exactly nowhere. Nebraska would not elect ME to anything...I am too liberal.  But someone like Ben Nelson, Bob Kerrey, etc....yes, they are more conservative, as far as Dems go nationwide. But they are electable.  

          Having Deb Fisher in there will not help Dems. It will demoralize them. Nebraska tends to keep their Senators a good long while...unless they get too liberal. Her presence will help the Republicans and put that seat further out of our reach.

          We can push better Dems in all kinds of places that will elect them. Nebraska is just not one of those places.

          •  I was being somewhat snarky with (0+ / 0-)

            "and Nebraska will be begging for a Democratic senator in 2018," but that was not the major thrust of my argument.

            (And, yes, I lived in Omaha for six years, and keep touch with friends there. I do know the political climate there.)

            Fischer as a member of a minority caucus does not help the Republicans in any way - she hurts them, in the same way that every other teabagger in the Senate and the House is hurting the Republican brand nationwide.

            We don't NEED Kerrey there. He hurts the party every time he bad mouths the president's policies and the party platform and votes with the Republicans. And his track record indicates he'll do that a lot.

            There is NO justification for adding to the ranks of the Senate DINOs when we already retain majority control without him.

            Romney's secret plan for a revenue neutral tax cut sounds like McCain's secret plan to end the war in Iraq.

            by WisePiper on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:00:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  huh? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              RoIn

              how does Fisher hurt them? They aren't hurt by Mike Lee, or Rand Paul, etc. At least not in their states. I don't see how she hurts them at all.

              and i really don't think Kerrey hurts us. Yes, he disagrees with the President sometimes, but who doesn't? Electing Deb Fisher will just encourage Republicans to keep putting up Tea Partiers. Every time one of them wins, it's a reward for the base who pulls them rightward. Every defeat takes a little more wind out of their sails.

              this is more big picture to me. You take the best shot you have....and you run up the score wherever you can. That creates an opportunity, or opportunities. Just think if Dems had held the majority control of NE unicam....they could have redistricted it in a way advantageous to the party. Same in any other state. That helps us get control. And let's be clear here, having control is a hugely important part of the puzzle. If we had to choose between 30 Kerrey's at the House level for control vs no control, we take the route for control.

              i get your argument is that Kerrey doesn't help us get control. That's fine, but he might help us keep it. We have no idea what 2014 or 2016 will bring. As I understand it, 2014 is another year with potential for R's to pick up more seats. If it comes down to needed just one more for control, we'd be pretty happy to have Kerrey there to make the majority.

              you take what you can and you work with what you can get. but it is short sighted to turn away someone who  is on your team just because you don't think they are pure enough.  

              i just don't see any evidence that suggests he would be worse for Dems short or long term. and i do not see how helping Deb Fisher win helps anyone but the extreme right wing....it validates the Citizen's United crowd who poured a ton of money in to get her elected. there are meta issues at stake here ... every chance we get to beat the money machine, we need to take it. Kerrey would be more apt to vote for the DISCLOSE act than Fisher would.

              I get the "better" argument. I really do. But it requires the ability to know that "better" is relative to location. If you think you can find a purer Dem in Nebraska that can win 50% +1....be my guest. Otherwise, you simply sacrifice the seat and the vote for the same quest the Tea Party is on: ideological purity.

              This will be the 2nd cycle where they absolutely should have and could have won control of the US Senate, but they won't, cause they keep nominating purists who turn off the people who are needed to actually get elected. You are advocating the exact same strategy for Dems. Good luck with that.

              •  We're at the "agree to disagree" point here. (0+ / 0-)

                I, too, am looking big picture. In my view, the higher proportion of teabaggers in the Republican Senate caucus, the better. The Republicans vote in lock step, regardless of the ideological underpinnings of their individual members. A yes or no vote from a teabagger is no less detrimental than the same vote from a less crazy senator, but what these far right wack jobs say in public is what helps our party attract moderate voters for the next election.

                Teabagger victories are not winning over the populace - they are alienating them. Look at Romney in these closing weeks - he is running away from far right wing positions as fast as his little robot feet will move him.

                Even in Nebraska, in my view, Fischer's policy  positions are going to hurt the Republican brand. Nebraskans are conservative, no doubt, but they're good people - she's going to taint anyone who aligns with her. I do think the Dems have a better chance of taking control of the unicam the more the Republican party in Nebraska is tied to their repugnant Senator Fischer.

                As far as control of the 2016 U.S. Senate is concerned, the overriding factor is going to be whether or not we deep six the filibuster. During Obama's first term, all legislative accomplishments, even the ACA, were severely compromised to reach the 60 vote threshold.

                Compromised legislation is why regulatory reform has been so toothless and job growth has been so anemic - which the Democrats are taking the blame for. With the filibuster gone (or radically reformed) we'll be able to pass legislation in the Senate that will stand in stark, favorable contrast to the shit that's going to be produced in the House. And, consequently, the Conference Committee compromises will skew more to the left, and thus will garner better results for the nation. This will serve to better our chances for retaining and increasing our Senate majority (and recapture the House).

                "We've switched from torture to assassination -- is that supposed to be moral progress?" h/t Susie Madrak, C&L

                by WisePiper on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:39:45 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  huh (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  WisePiper

                  Ok, well, honestly, paragraphs 1 and 2.....i really can't disagree with much. They do all vote together, regardless of where they land on the continuum. And Romney is running away in order to win. I get the alienating thing.

                  And the last paragraph as well...I understand all that. I am not sure if compromises will skew more to the left...if we are dealing with a resolute GOP House.

                  In principle, I think you are right. In practice, I just don't think it works that way. Fisher might taint people. But rural voters in NE give us these types of elected officials quite frequently. The problem, in practice, is that they have the money machine at ALL levels....we do not. And in midterms, they have the advantage, because they vote in ways we are unable to match. 2010 is the concern. That is what gave us the current predicament. The money was unleashed. And Dems, including the PResident, screwed the pooch on messaging for the entire healthcare fight, etc. We shot ourselves in the feet.

                  I guess I just don't think there will be enough voters turned off by Fisher if she wins. Who in NE would take her on next time? They couldn't hardly find anyone this time, and the guy they ran against Johanns in 2008 was a disaster....even though a good guy and a true progressive. I don't think he even hit 40% (although I'm  not for sure on that).

                  It just seems like a huge risk. Win the seat this time...and keep illustrating to voters how unreasonable Fisher et al are that way. I really don't think we'd get the seat back for a long time if she wins. Nebraskans are good people, but they are also very culturally Republican. I can't see Dems taking control on the unicameral for along time. And no one has been able to take the Governor's mansion since Nelson left it.

                  Romney just started his running away...but his support in NE was not exactly slipping. Nebraskans are more Tea Party-ish than we might want to admit. They have been convinced of the evil socialist Obama, etc. Romney's issue was in swing states ... the extremism drives away voters like you said. But in the deepest red states, I think the extremism is the norm. Kansas, TX, OK, etc...

                  I get your point....entirely. I just don't agree that we help the overall cause by intentionally losing the seat.

            •  The next midterm election, watch out! (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              RoIn, rmx2630

              In 2014, we can expect to lose seats in the Senate. The party controlling the White House always loses seats in the second midterm election. (Unless the President is being impeached and the voters don't like that.)

              So it's the NEXT session, in January 2015, when we'll need Bob Kerrey -- and any other Blue Dog we're lucky enuff to get.

              Otherwise Obama will be dealing with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for the final two years of his term

              Only looking at the session beginning in January 2013 is simply short-sighted.

    •  What a fundamentally stupid comment (0+ / 0-)

      Kerrey has supported gay marriage since 1982. He supports Obamacare and is fundamentally against war with Iran. He is way to the left of Ben Nelson and moves Nebraska to the left.

      •  Well Said (0+ / 0-)

            It was ideological purism that caused us to lose so badly in 2010.  The Tea Partiers wouldn't have made so many gains if it hadn't been for Dems acting like spoiled brats and sitting out the election just because they didn't get everything they expected in 2008, instead of acting like adults who understand that success in politics requires the acceptance of compromise and incremental change.  

              And to suggest that it's OK to throw a Democratic candidate under the bus as long as we've got at least 51 seats in the Senate is unbelievably short-sighted.  For one thing, it takes 60 votes to overcome the filibuster.  For another, even if we have 51 or more seats after Election Day 2012, there's no guarantee we'll keep those seats even until the next election.  Between Norm Coleman and the Republicans playing games to delay Al Franken taking his seat and the loss of Ted Kennedy, the Democratic super majority of 2008 proved quite fleeting.  Thinking that we don't need any cushion beyond 51 seats is like saying "Isn't that double hull lining on oil tankers kind of redundant?  Do they really need that superfluous extra hull?"

             I'm glad to see some signs of hope for Kerrey's campaign.  Those who think his campaign was doomed from the outset might consider that at the start of Martha Coakley's Senate campaign, her poll numbers were just as strong as Fischer's, and we all saw how well that worked out for Coakley.  If Kerrey tightens the race enough to have a respectably close finish without actually winning, we'll all have to wonder what might have been if his candidacy hadn't been written off so early.  

  •  It had to tighten up. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RoIn

    He was popular there .... 16 points down to a teabagger was ridiculous.

    Show us your tax returns !!!!!!

    by Bush Bites on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:12:49 PM PDT

  •  Kerry Is A Traditional Politician (0+ / 0-)

    He knows all the ends and out of who to talk to and how to campaign.  He is not a newbie to this business.  

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 03:26:42 PM PDT

  •  Interesting n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 04:03:39 PM PDT

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