There's only been one move today in the presidential race. A new Marist poll that came out today brings Nevada from Likely D -> Lean D, which was where it was before the last update. Although this isn't an update, RCP has added the split Maine and Nebraska CDs to their custom electoral map (which is one of the few things they're good for). I've been ignoring these since it's unlikely they'll end up being decisive and would be a pain in the ass to add manually, but now that they're on there, CD-2 of Nebraska is officially a toss up due to an Omaha World Herald poll showing Obama and Romney tied 44-44 there. There has been no polling of Maine's 2nd, but since Obama is up double digits in the state it's likely his lead in the 2nd is between 5-10 points, and thus gets the "likely" rating for now.
Safe D: ME(R)^
Likely D: MA(R)^ MO(D), OH(D), PA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: AZ(R)^ CT(D), VA(D), WI(D)
Toss Up: IN(R), MT(D), ND(D), NV(R)
Safe R: NE(D)^
Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 53-43-4.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).
Just for fun, I decided to do a hypothetical "Palin vs. Obama" map based on actual polls conducted in 2010-2011, and my personal judgment when there were no polls. Oh, what could have been...