I came across these 2 very interesting reads. More or less like Intrade but worth a look.
From John Ydstie:NPR
By this point in the campaign season, the presidential polls may have your head spinning. Romney's up 7 points in one, Obama's up 3 in another ... and on any given day, a dozen other polls are swirling, each offering a different take.
But there is a market out there that distills all those data down to one simple predictive number — and gives you a chance to bet on it. Sure, there's likely a bookie in your city who could give you odds on the presidential race and happily take your bet. But for most of the nation's history, would-be political bettors had another option: betting markets.
http://www.wbur.org/...
From the IEM:(Iowa Electronic Markets) By University Communication and Marketing
Mitt Romney has been making a comeback on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) in recent weeks, but Barack Obama is still a 2-to-1 favorite to win the popular vote in November.
A contract for Mitt Romney was selling for 34.5 cents on the IEM’s Winner Take All market Thursday morning, which means traders believe there is a 34.5 percent probability that he will win. That price is up substantially from the 18.6 cents he was trading at as recently as September 27, an 85 percent increase in price.
Obama, meanwhile, was selling for 66 cents Thursday, which means traders believe there is a 66 percent probability he will win the popular vote. As Romney’s price increased in recent weeks, Obama’s fell 19 percent from his high of 81.7 cents on Sept. 27.
Most of Romney’s recent gains came during a two-week period shortly before and after the first debate on Oct. 3. His price reached as high as 39.2 cents on Oct. 12 before settling back.
Meanwhile, on the Vote Share market, in which traders buy and sell contracts based on what percentage of the two party vote they think each candidate will receive, Obama was selling for 53.9 cents Thursday morning. That means traders believe Obama will receive 53.9 percent of the popular vote between the two candidates.
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/...
Regardless what Polls are saying GOTV and make it COUNT.