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Persons of Hispanic or Latino Origin, percent, 2011 (b)

38.1% Texas

16.7% Nationally

White persons not Hispanic, percent, 2011

44.8% Texas

63.4% Nationally

With the Democratic Party doing so well with latinos perhaps it is time to stop conceding so many electoral votes in the lonestar state.  

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Comment Preferences

  •  Yes we can (0+ / 0-)

    If they will just vote.

    •  Even if the President lost white males handily (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      Wouldn't he be able to compete with the latino and women vote?  Just curious if whomever will succeed the President would do well to actually fight for Texas.  

      Even if we lost, just making an opponent spend resources there might be worthwhile.

  •  I saw a similar diary predicting Democratic (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TX Dem 50, akze29

    victory by 2020, 2024 the latest.
    I like you moving up the date to 2016, but I still think it may be too early.  It also depends on the candidates.

    I have read the the Latino population in Texas tilts a bit more conservative, so we Dems might not get the same percentage we would get, let say in California.

    It will happen.

    "Saying atheism is a religion is like saying not collecting stamps is a hobby".

    by progresso on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 06:37:57 PM PDT

    •  It should have been 2008. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      michlawa2, progresso

      There is a problem in the relationship between the Texas Dem. Party and the national party.
      I don't know much about it, but it's apparently true.
      It's mind-boggling.
      We had incredible momentum, Bush was leaving in shame, we had lots of money.
      The national Dems should have targeted Cornyn and helped the state party out.

      In 2010, Bill White should have won the governorship.

      This year, Paul Sadler is garnering newspaper endorsements across the state. His name is not well known, generally, but he's well known among Dem party people across the states.

      We can find decent moderate/conservative Dem candidates who won't pass a lefty litmus test but will allow progress to go forward and won't be whores to Wall Street.
      Progressives can never hope for the ultimate victory of progressive ideas if they cannot hang onto the reins of government and do the hard, slow work of persuading conservative minded folks of good faith.

      You can't make this stuff up.

      by David54 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:34:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Texas Democratic Party makes a lot of excuses (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        akze29, progresso

        they blame the national party for its own problems, namely fundraising.

        I say this as a Texas Democrat, sadly.

        We are a minority-majority state.  We should be doing better than we are doing.  But there is no widespread committment to organizing here.

        2016?  We haven't won a statewide race since 1994.  If we don't win a statewide race in 2012 or 2014, forget about 2016 presidential race in Texas.

        It's that simple

        Barack Obama for President '12

        by v2aggie2 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:49:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I've been trying to talk this up (6+ / 0-)

    for a while.  I'm a Tejano in exile who has watched the demographic changes in the state with 'bated breath.  I think if the national party were to spend serious money in the state, they could put it in play.

    The problem is that a great many Tejanos are the same self-satisfied middle to upper-middle class slobs that vote for the GOP in droves.  I see it in my family ALL THE TIME - Tejanos who should be yellow-dog democrats - refusing to vote Dem.

    Some of the problem is racial and some of it class.   There has always been brown-black social tension in the SW.  Some of those Tejanos who have succeeded financially simply want to differentiate themselves from the most obvious Democratic constituency in Texas.  "I'm not like them."

    A successful drive to flip Texas will need to have three planks (Hint - do the same thing that's worked elsewhere):

    1) mobilize urban African-Americans to 95%+ turnout.

    2) focus like a laser on women's issues:  we need 60% of Texas women.

    3) Put large amounts of money into voter education and voter turnout in the larage Tejano populations of ALL urban centers, even small, seemingly unpromising places like Waco, and the Valley.

    It will take time, maybe beyond 2016, but continuous pressure along the line suggested would lead to an unbreakable D majority in the Lone Star State.  Takers?

  •  Why wait till 2016? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nomandates

    We are fighting now.

  •  Let's make this clear! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    michlawa2

    The economy WILL improve, and the next president will get credit for it. Reading Bill Big Dog's body language, my guess is that if Obama wins now the Dem's candidate will be Hill. I love Joe, but he may not have the innovative factor as a woman president.

    The back room boys are betting on Ryan for that match-up. They fronted him when RMoney was hopelessly behind.

    If Hill runs against Ryan, the Hispanic majority will turn the tide.

  •  What's most intriguing... (0+ / 0-)

    Based off the trends of Texas in last 3 presidential elections, 20% Republican margin in 2000 and 2004, but only 10% margin in 2008.  If Texas could go blue someday it would be the downfall of the GOP.  Fact is that if Texas were to go blue,  Dems could forgo every current swing state and WI and NH and still reach 270. Note:  that's assuming Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania are blue.

  •  Fight for every vote (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    michlawa2

    But, I see no path to Democratic victory in Texas in 2016. Just being honest.

    I've seen so many prognostications that if only Latinos turned out, Democrats would win the state. It's been like that for more than a decade. I'm still waiting.

    Turning Texas blue is at least a ten-year project. It involves mobilizing Latinos, turning out African Americans, holding the big cities, and breaking even in the Texas suburbs.

    Democrats are getting killed in the suburbs. These "relatively" moderate Texas voters must be convinced that government has a legitimate role in their lives. If Dems can't break even in the Texas suburbs, forget it.

    •  And yet, Ann Richards was governor once... (0+ / 0-)

      it can't be that impossible, can it?

      •  Ann Richards was governor (0+ / 0-)

        During a very different time in Texas. That was nearly 20 years ago. That was at a time when the Texas Congressional delegation was 2/3rds Democratic and Democrats enjoyed majorities in both houses of the state legislature.

        Those days are gone. As politics have become more polarized at the national level, Texas has become more Republican. Republicans my have reached an apex in their state dominance, but it will take a long time to erode their substantial advantages.

        Democratic presidential candidates haven't won more than 44% of the vote in Texas since 1976. And I don't see Obama breaking 44% this year.

        Again, just being realistic. I'd love nothing better than to see the day when Texas becomes a swing state. That day is the end of the Republican Party as a national party -- at least in its current form.

    •  They aren't really that moderate (0+ / 0-)

      Barack Obama for President '12

      by v2aggie2 on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:50:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My TexMex coworker likes Romney (0+ / 0-)

    She watches Fox News on the internet while we are at work.   Her mother only speaks Spanish. I don't get it, because I don't talk politics with her.  But she has the Romney yard sign.

    We have nowhere else to go... this is all we have. (Margaret Mead)

    by bruised toes on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 05:45:11 AM PDT

    •  Also, the TexMex secretary in our unit (0+ / 0-)

      listens to right wing talk shows on the radio while she does data entry. She has pictures of the Virgen de Guadalupe in her cubicle, brings pan dulce to share with the coworkers, makes tamales at Christmas, and thinks Ryan is wonderful.

      Sorry to throw cold water on your theory.  I agree that most hispanic Texans should be Democratic, but in my immediate every day vicinity, it is not a given.

      We have nowhere else to go... this is all we have. (Margaret Mead)

      by bruised toes on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 05:50:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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