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    Go to any conservative site right now. Hell, go to sites like or Politico. The comments sections are loaded with people absolutely convinced Romney is going to win big. I often hear them citing the national polls (which I must admit, do worry me) and then go into an anecdotal story about how they drove through their home state and saw tons of Romney Signs.

    Living in California, it is hard to get a feel for how the swing states are right now on the ground. But, because I live in conservative San Diego, I know quite well how cocky Republicans are, especially after the first debate. No matter how many times I explain to conservatives here how the electoral college works, nothing dissuades them that Romney is on track to beat Obama.

     Thing is, even though it shouldn't bother me- it does, a lot. So then when I hear over and over again about Romney yard signs in swing states, it also gives me nagging doubts. Obviously, they don't vote, but I would think they help add to the stupid "Mittmentum" narrative and get bandwagoning undecideds to think about Romney. So, I can't help but feel that it may have been a bad move for OFA to ignore yard signs.

     Now, let me let my fears leave and my logic come back. Though I cannot make sense of the national polls, we are ahead where we need to be ahead, and the CNN poll of Ohio today especially made me breathe a bit easier. And I have taken to having a productive way of dealing with my hand-wringing: Whenever I get into a funk because of some stupid op-ed, or anecdotal story about yard signs in Ohio, or a Conservative telling me "the states will soon break for ROmney too", I donate.

     As a law student, I can't donate too much, all my spare dollars come from serving tables once a week to help pay for gas and other expenses so I don't take out even more in loans. But, that $4 donate button has become my friend. I am up over $50 now, doing my small part to keep President Obama living on Pennsylvania Avenue.

     But as big a reward as four more years of our great President would be, I want a more immediate reward. I want Obama to win on November 6th so I can watch those God Damn smirks on the faces of Republicans today become frowns and angry denial.

     I want to hear them moan about how Obama "stole" the election, because they just know he was losing- Rasmussen told them so!

     So, two things I want from anyone who takes the time to comment on my sad little diary tonight. Talk me down about my hand-wringing, and donate $4 to the President if you can.

     If we keep these swing states blue, we will get to laugh in the face of idiots in denial, and I can't wait. If we don't, then the morons of the country will get to laugh at us. We can't allow that to happen.

     Vote. Contribute. Keep President Obama in the White House and wipe those dumb smiles off Republican's faces!!!!

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Comment Preferences

  •  We just from a vacation back east (13+ / 0-)

    We drove parts of Virginia's Shenandoah Valley and even into Lynchburg (Jerry Falwell country).  We saw Obama and Romney signs in a roughly equal number.  And those are definitely not the areas that Obama is counting on.  We didn't even get into Northern VA where the President's stronghold is.  

    Just anecdotal evidence, but I was encouraged.  From our trip, the number of signs looked strongest for Romney in SW PA.  But then, we didn't venture into Pittsburgh or Philadelphia where Obama will run up huge margins.

    "Safety and security are the result of collective consensus. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear." - Nelson Mandela. Donate to TREE Climbers

    by TX Freethinker on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:30:18 PM PDT

    •  I Like that anecdotal stuff. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW, highacidity, TX Freethinker

      Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. Shakespeare, Henry V

      by Wildthumb on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:36:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've seen more Obama signs in Iowa (5+ / 0-)

      than in 2008.

      Now I don't give a flying fuck about yard signs, except for the two goddamn fucking Romney signs which went up across the street and are fixing to be run the fuck over by my SUV, but I thought you'd appreciate the info.

      And yes, I really am going to run over those assholish signs with my big black SUV.  Maybe I'll even gear down the sucker to 4 Low.

      CNN has called it: Luke Skywalker vs. the Death Star is a tie!

      by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:31:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rather than damaging (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TX Freethinker, notrouble

        the signs, which could get you arrested, and give the Rs another stupid talking point, may I suggest going over to the house the day after the election with a casserole or some other dish for the mourners, with best wishes from the neighborly Democrats. I find yard signs to be silly, because I can't imagine seeing a sign in someones yard being a mind changer. So even though my neighbor has tons of signs in his yard, I won't get worked up about it. FWIW, even in rural southeast michigan, there are several Obama signs between Monroe and Dundee.

        F--- Scott & Fitzgerald

        by henlesloop on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 05:01:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  LOL! (0+ / 0-)

        I have to admit I've had similar thoughts - though I just sold my own big black 4x4.  I think I've found some I may be able to take out with my new/old FWD econobox though.  I'll wait until after 11/7 though.  

        I've been seeing lots of large (5'x7') R/R signs lately.  I am pretty sure they are being errected at the expense of the R/R campaign.   They all use identical green fence posts with yellow tops.  They posts are generally correctly spaced, solidly sunk in, and square.  I am pretty sure that someone is paid to install these since I don't know any Republicans that are capable of doing any manual labor correctly.  During the Walker recall, there were reports that the WI GOP was paying property owners $100-$200 to let them install large signs on their property.

    •  I live in the Valley (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bradreiman, TX Freethinker

      Hope you enjoyed your trip through the Shenandoah Valley.  It is beautiful this time of year, especially with the fall colors.

      I live in a county which will likely go 70-30 for Romney and there have been Romney signs for months in my neighborhood, but recently I have been seeing more Obama (and Kaine) signs.  I think the local OFA office must have gotten a shipment of them.

  •  They want to be accurate. So the pollsters will (6+ / 0-)

    gradually "narrow" the gap and talk about momentum for the President.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:31:39 PM PDT

  •  Of course, they are confident. (15+ / 0-)

    They are masters of self-delusion and don't let any information that doesn't support their world view sink into their little pea brains.

    If there is no accountability for those who authorized torture, we can no longer say that we are a nation of laws, not men.

    by MikePhoenix on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:33:10 PM PDT

  •  The only way Romney could possibly win big... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    COBALT1928, retLT if he bribed every Democrat to vote for him with $1 million in random, unmarked $100 bills, with an Autopen note personally asking them to vote for him. And even then he probably wouldn't win, either. There just ain't no silverplating that Big Turd!

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:33:25 PM PDT

  •  Go to HuffPost Sam Stein piece; R considering (17+ / 0-)

    moving resources from OH to WIS because they don't think they can win OH. Doubt that is being talked about by Rmoney boosters.

  •  I share your concerns (10+ / 0-)

    I fear that some of us in the progressive camp are also deluding ourselves. It is a close race, and we don't really know what the impact of voter suppression will be. There should also be some concern about possible bias with the electronic voting.

  •  Did they, indeed? (9+ / 0-)
    Go to any conservative site right now. Hell, go to sites like or Politico. The comments sections are loaded with people absolutely convinced Romney is going to win big.
    Well, no one said they were smart.

    Facts matter. Joe Biden

    by kpardue on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:40:41 PM PDT

  •  I've been reading some conservatives talking (8+ / 0-)

    about a LANDSLIDE - Romney. Some poll, somewhere, told them this was going to be the worst in history. Which gives me optimism. Since the worst in history was one state for the loser, the other 49 for the winner. And there's no way in Hell that will happen this time. Now, it's possible they're right, about the worst landslide in history, but I don't believe for a second it will be Obama who is the loser. So, it gives me pleasure, because I know they're getting fed their usual pablum, and smiling.

    "Mitt Romney looks like the CEO who fires you, then goes to the Country Club and laughs about it with his friends." ~ Thomas Roberts MSNBC

    by second gen on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:41:02 PM PDT

    •  It's bizarre, 'cause if O gets OH, WI & NV he wins (0+ / 0-)

      ...and he's currently got a steady lead in all of those states.

      If one of them falls through, Obama could get there via some combo of IA, Nh, CO, VA, FL, NC.

      So Obama has a lot of paths to victory. But if you're a Romney-ite that could be hard to admit.

      Still, we've got to actually win it. GOTV!

  •  Stand ins for enthusiasm. (7+ / 0-)
    Thing is, even though it shouldn't bother me- it does, a lot. So then when I hear over and over again about Romney yard signs in swing states, it also gives me nagging doubts.
    I'm in TX. It doesn't get much redder than here.

    Yard signs are rare, and when I have seen them, I have seen more for Obama than Romney.  Same thing with bumper stickers, almost.

    Both Obama and Romney lose the bumper sticker war down here to Ron Paul. Hands down.

    So even though I know that Romney will win TX by a double digit lead, it isn't reflected by signs, bumper stickers, or any other symbol of enthusiasm that I might see.

    What I have seen since early voting started this past Monday are lines. Lines of people running out the door of the early voting polling places. People are out and voting. It is the best sign of all of them that I could possibly see.

    •  and how many votes did those Ron Paul bumper (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KenBee, love100, retLT, LostBuckeye

      stickers lead to...?

      I know I don't have an Obama sticker or a sign this year because I don't want to deal with right wing lunatics.

      But my wife & I have already voted for President Obama (early voting) and I've donated about $250 to the campaign (if I was rolling in dough, it'd be more.)

      I just think yard signs and bumper stickers are next to meaningless. Maybe they are more meaningful in a congressional race with low name recognition? I don't know... but yeah... Ron Paul's signs and bumper stickers didn't help him win jack crap. I think that says it all really.

  •  It's funny... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    COBALT1928, FiredUpInCA, GOPGO2H3LL, retLT

    How much high-fiving is going on over at Red State, NR, etc.  If that kind of behavior was going on here it'd be a Kossack beat down.

  •  they live in a bubble (10+ / 0-)

    They get their news from FOX, talk radio, and conservative blogs.  All three which create their own reality.

    Partisans in general will search out for information that fits their own bias. So even for the reality challenged conservative that thinks Romney is going to win in a landslide there are studies out there that they can cling to. There's that bogus Colorado Univ Study that says Romney in a landslide(it has Romney winning Minnesota) for instance.

    •  Bingo. +100000000000000000. Many Kossacks (3+ / 0-)

      do not realize the extent to which the wingnuts have an entire alternate world created for them where all information is tailored just for them. It is a literal alternate reality. It's both hilarious and frightening. On the flip side Dems lack confidence and need constant reassurance from the very establishment it criticizes.

      If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

      by DoctorWho on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:40:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  definitely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        when my proto-Tea Party father ran for Congress many years ago, he plastered the region with signs and billboards. Basically he'd been put on the Republican ticket by saner heads who recognized the impossibility of unseating the incumbent Democrat. Down to the wire, he was genuinely convinced he would win. He lost, with 24 percent of the vote. Soon he was talking this up as a win for his future "name recognition." Bubble, indeed!

  •  I will do your $4 better tonight. (16+ / 0-)

    I paid off my student loans long ago, so I'll cover your donation tonight and match your total contributed to-date. $54 to Obama for America for your story!

    I share your exact feelings. Hoping to think how upset the Adelsons of the world will be on Nov 7 after flushing their 100's of millions of dollars down the drain during this election.

    "If they're shooting at you, you know you must be doing something right"

    by ayjaymay on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:55:44 PM PDT

    •  You are awesome! (6+ / 0-)

      Thank you.

      And about those student loans, thanks to tea party stonewalling in the debt deal, my interest rates went up just as I was starting law school. The tea party will cost me, by my estimate, about $10-15k more in interest. Thanks assholes!

      I'm gonna get to $100 before election day. I want to do more, but beyond that begins to enter the realm of being irresponsible.

      Romney: Believe in (half of) America

      by kmoros on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:11:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I feel the exact same way. (6+ / 0-)

    I live in a swing state and I see the things your hearing everyday. It shouldn't bother me but it does even with Nates math and percentages I'm worried. All I see are Romney bumper stickers and signs. I've noticed actual Romney campaign offices as opposed to 08 where I never even saw a campaign office. That might explain the influx of signs lol the Romney team is a least better than mccains but what really bothers me is I have t seen much Obama stickers like in 08
    . I've spoke to some people that say that are to scared to put it on or don't want to be harassed at work , so I definitely take it as the enthusiasm is different. I just hope we can gotv. I'm heading to the polls in the morning to finally cast my vote in fl.

    I do hope the national polls start shifting towards the president. I would feel better if it was more in line with states.

    "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

    by sillycilla on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 08:55:48 PM PDT

    •  I know MT isn't a swing state (6+ / 0-)

      but the local Repubs are such a nasty, vindictive bunch, that no-one in my family, and few Democrats, are willing to display their support.

      They're gun-toting bullies, so yea.

    •  Exactly, if those damn nationals corrected (5+ / 0-)

      I'd feel much better. Or at least if ABC gave us back the lead, I can live without Ras and Gallup.

      I think the fear is that no matter how good the state polls are, they will collapse to match the nationals.

      But we have to keep in mind that so far Gallup and IBD/TiPP have shown that Romney is doing much better in the south and down everywhere else. THat could be it, in a nutshell. He can have 100% of Alabama for all I care, as long as we have at least one more vote than he does in Ohio.

      Romney: Believe in (half of) America

      by kmoros on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:14:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The national polls are about even (5+ / 0-)

      Go to pollster and look at the National results. Gallop and Rasmussen are out on a limb by themselves. There are like 6 daily trackers all within a point or two of each other either tied, R+1 or O+1.

      Gallup is really out there with their belief that the electorate went from being +8 Democrat last time to +1 Republican this time. I mean Gallop is so far out there by themselves right now, as it looks like Rasmussen is doing what Rasmussen does and he is getting closer to the even race and reality.

      And just a reminder, Rasmussen was just horrible in 2010. Their polls were too optimistic for Republicans by an average of 3.9% (per Nate Silver). They were middle of the pack in 2008, with a Republican bias of like 1.5%.

      When there is significant downward movement in Nate Silver's and Sam Wang's model's then it will be time to worry.

    •  This sounds like (9+ / 0-)
      What really bothers me is I have t seen much Obama stickers like in 08. I've spoke to some people that say that are to scared to put it on or don't want to be harassed at work , so I definitely take it as the enthusiasm is different.
      people who don't want their cars keyed or their tires slashed, not necessarily any lack of enthusiasm. They'll just go and vote as enthusiastically and volunteer as enthusiastically as they did in 2008 without inciting neighbors who feel they are entitled to vandalism or violence because someone votes differently than them.

      The choice of our lifetime: Mitt Romney, It Takes A Pillage or President Barack Obama, Forward Together.

      by FiredUpInCA on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:18:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nate's math is good (7+ / 0-)

      but I'm hoping Sam Wang's is better... his system nailed (and I mean nailed the EVs exactly) both 2004 & 2008 ... this year... as of right now... he has Obama's odds at 97% (in comparison: Nate has him at 74%.)

  •  Its the Rove Doctrine... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    COBALT1928, FiredUpInCA, GOPGO2H3LL

    I listen to Right-Wingnut talk radio on my commute to see whats up on the "other side".  Rush/Hannity etc. are all on a project fearlessness kick.  Its a mantra they repeat with congruity, and why not?  With a $1.0Billion+ invested, conceivably anything could happen in the next 11 days - or you try and steal it with voting machines :)

    In any case - bummer O no-showed in the first debate or this would be over.  In light of that, find solace in Intrade/538 and get out and make calls and donate $.  

  •  Check this out! (8+ / 0-)

    Jonathan Chait posted a link to the Way Back Machine.  It was from RCP, in its earlier version circa 2000, giving their opinion of the 2000 election.  They predicted W would win in a landslide and Gore would, at best, get 77 EV.  Reading this, at least momentarily, reminded me how little pundits and pollster really know about what is going on.  Unfortunately, it doesn't stop me from obsessing but this article will surely make you feel better.  Here is the link:

    •  WOW (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ianb007, Socratic Method

      RCP truly is a piece of fucking shit!

      As we have said all along, Gore needed to close to within 2% in our RCP Composites to have a realistic chance to win. He has not done so. (RCP Tracking Composite Bush 47.3 Gore 41.2, RCP National Poll Composite Bush 47.0 Gore 42.8) George W. Bush will be elected President of the United States tomorrow by the American people. But the last minute Gore push in some polls has perhaps given enough liberal Democrats hope to not waste their vote on Nader.

      The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

      For those who still maintain Mr. Gore has a chance of winning, consider the scenarios under which this is possible. If Gore does not win Florida (the evidence indicates he will not), he must run the table, taking IL, CA, PA, MI, MN, WI, WA, OR, TN, AR, WV and DE along with his base 92 votes for a 273-265 EC win. It won't happen. Even with a victory in Florida, Gore must win at least 70% of the remaining battleground states to eke out a victory. The truth is that George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of the United States.

      When you sift through the haze of polls and media disinformation, the anecdotal facts are clear. Bush and Gore are fighting it out in Democratic Iowa, West Virginia, Minnesota and even Gore's home state of Tennessee. Bush is reaching out to moderate Democrats and independents while Gore is frantically trying to energize his base. The media openly acknowledges Bush's base is more energized and that Gore faces a significant threat from Nader on his left. Yet the pundits still talk as if the election is too close to call and could go either way.

      CNN has called it: Luke Skywalker vs. the Death Star is a tie!

      by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:45:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  538 & PEC (5+ / 0-)

    forget the national polls and completely ignore anecdotal nonsense. I really think you become less informed by picking through these national polls one by one and by reading various skewed anecdotal ideas about what's going on...

    ( see Gallup: )

    there's no need for reading tea leaves or getting into the weeds with individual polls because we live in an era of 538 and PEC ( ) there's no reason to be worried right now (unless you're a Romney supporter) Obama is in a good position to get to 270+ thus Romney still needs a game changer with only 10 days to go.

    Current Obama Win Odds

    538: 74%
    PEC: 97%

  •  Not just the comments, it's their thought leaders (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I put up a diary chronicling some of their arguments.

    You have guys like Jay Cost dismissing all polls that are negative for Romney.  You have the Hotair guys posting all sorts of polls that GUARANTEE~! a Romney win (this is interesting, as that site is the originator of this 'unskewing' business--they're the ones who started the 'party ID' meme).  Jennifer Rubin thinks Romney is very very serious, presidential, and moderate while Obama is in freefall, panicked, and clueless.  Their biggest argument is that Obama's too far back in the popular vote for the swing states not to go Romneys way.  The other narrative according to them is that Romney's supposedly whooping ass with independents, and appealing to the national center (by hanging out with the likes of Mourdock and Sununu???)

    We'll see.  If there's one difference between liberal politicians and thought leaders, it's that they sort of are aware of what's going on across the political spectrum.  Conservatives seem to like to create a narrative that sounds good to them, and then fit reality to it.  I mean you'd NEVER see one of them do like Kos when he posted that sobering SEIU/PPP/Kos poll in which Romney took a 4 point national lead post-debate, and acknowledge that Romney had surged.

    Anyway, go to Hotair, NRO, etc right now.  They're sure Romney will win.  Many of them are past the point of even acknowledging that it's a close race.  Even that is too much.

  •  What have they got to lose? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Either they are right, or they have convinced themselves that Obama can only win by stealing the election, and that gives them carte blanche for their desired race war.

    CNN has called it: Luke Skywalker vs. the Death Star is a tie!

    by GOPGO2H3LL on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:47:27 PM PDT

  •  What Happened To All Their Skewed Polls? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Arnie, FiredUpInCA, mdmslle, wrights

    Before the first debate when all the polls showed Obama ahead......they said the polls were skewed.  They said polls didn't count & were manipulated by the liberal press anyway.  

    So....what happened to the skewed polls?  All of a sudden, they're not skewed anymore.  It's like a  miracle.

    The morning after November 6th, they are going to be snarling like mad dogs, frothing at the mouth, scratching, clawing, howling in pain.  They'll scream about voter fraud.  They'll blame ACORN, the Chicago machine.....anything but themselves.  

  •  These people are in for a very rude awakening (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rennert, FiredUpInCA, mdmslle

    on election day.

    I remember being in their position in 2004.  I was sure that Kerry would win because he'd won all of the debates.


    The polling trends in that election were very close those this year.  Bush never really trailed Kerry in national polling, and he never trailed in the electoral college.

    Have you googled Romney today?

    by fou on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:07:14 PM PDT

  •  That's what Republicans do (4+ / 0-)

    They convince themselves of a certain "reality," and celebrate the win before it happens.

    If they get lucky and that win somehow manages to come to pass, like the 2010 mid-terms, they go ape-shit and smear it in our faces, proclaim they have a mandate from God, and proceed to fuck shit up worse.

    If that "reality" of theirs doesn't come to pass, as will be the case this election, they go ape-shit and cry foul, and proceed to fuck up any attempts we make to fix their previous fuck-ups, all the while trying to pin their failure on us.

    All the bloviating in online forums and Romney yardsigns piled to the moon can't hide the fact the Romney is a fraud.

    Fuck him and the GOP. And that's what will happen come election day.

    Count on it.

    Somebody has to do something, and it's just incredibly pathetic that it has to be us.
    ~ Jerry Garcia

    by DeadHead on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:13:01 PM PDT

  •  if they were confident Romney would not have been (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DoctorWho, IreGyre

    in Ohio 5 times in 2 days, photoshopping photos of his rallies to make them look larger. I would bet they are bringing the same people to the rallies and apparently they are not, please God, breaking through the Ohio so-called firewall. Romney is a bully. If he had it you would know it. He would be bellowing.  I don't believe any of the polls anymore. I think conservatives have deliberately skewed them pretending to be Democrats voting for Romney. The other day Romney's intrade number suddenly went up about 5 points. They found it was someone deliberately inflating it. Remember these people are lying scumbags. Believe nothing. Since about two weeks after that first debate I believe Romney's number began to abate and like they did on American Idol and like CNN did on their own flash polling, skewing is occurring. We will not really know till November 6 unfortunately unless Romney decides to leave the race for some reason. This would be great.

  •  They are bringing out the champagne bottles now (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DeadHead, mdmslle, lockewasright, fou

    because they have a surplus available since Obamacare did not get struck down by the Supreme Court as they absolutely knew it would.

    They make up their own reality. The media enables and abets them.

    Those of us who live in a fact-based, verifiable reality watch in confusion and dismay, as we continue working toward achieving our objectives rather than working the media.

    Then we and the country win. Again and again.

    One day they'll figure this out. I hope it is not any time soon.

    The choice of our lifetime: Mitt Romney, It Takes A Pillage or President Barack Obama, Forward Together.

    by FiredUpInCA on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 12:03:16 AM PDT

  •  THanks for all the responses everyone! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdmslle, fou

    You made me feel a ton better.

    PS, who is the little shit who keeps wanting to tell us how Nate was off by 3% or some such?

    pgh kid, got something you wanna talk about bud?

    Romney: Believe in (half of) America

    by kmoros on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 01:08:00 AM PDT

    •  Generally where Nate was off in 2008 (0+ / 0-)

      it was OFA out performing the polls.  In other words we did better than expected.

      Picture a bright blue ball just spinnin' spinnin' free. It's dizzy with possibility.

      by lockewasright on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 04:30:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah.. (0+ / 0-)

        ...he fails to mention that Nate was only off by a small margin short of Obama's totals.
         Regardless he is a little troll, probably paid for by Sproul to try to stir something up.

        "Good to be here, good to be anywhere." --Keith Richards

        by bradreiman on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 06:36:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah Nate (0+ / 0-)

          was off just under 1% of the total vote .  RCP was .3% off of the total vote.  not stirring anything up, just looking at the actual results.  the majority of pollsters had 48 out of 50 states right. Nate made a good call on NC.  good for him.  but other states he picked the right winner, but was off by some pretty significant numbers.  

      •  Actually, (0+ / 0-)

        In Nate's predictions, Obama over performed his prediction in 27 states, and underperformed his prediction in 23 states.  

    •  He doesnt understand (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      that Nate doesn't give polling results, he gives probabilities. If he is off, it's because the pollsters giving him the data was off.

      Nate was spot on, except for Indiana.

      GOP- Fact Free since 1981!

      by KingGeorgetheTurd on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 06:25:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  actually it is just a fact (0+ / 0-)

      if you check what he predicted in each state, he was off by an average of 3.31%.  everyone talks about how he got 49 out of 50, sounds great until you see the majority of pollsters got 48 out of 50.  he had a good call on 1 state.  nothing against him or his method, just saying he was generally average in guessing the final totals of the states.  some states he nailed, some he missed by more than 8%. Example in Nevada in 2008 Nate predicted a spread of 4.9% when the actual final spread was 12.5% for a difference of 9.7%.   considering in his forcast right now that every side bar race is within about 2% it is something to think about.  

      •  oh stop it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mahakali overdrive

        You are spamming your natehate over and over.
        The same gets hidden and you babble it out again.
        Meanwhile you could be phonebanking for mittens or something.

        We consume the carcasses of creatures of like appetites, passions and organs with our own, and fill the slaughterhouses daily with screams of pain and fear. Robert Louis Stevenson

        by Christin on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:53:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  A friend at work (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fou, kmoros

    is RW nut is counting down the days until Obama loses.  He came to gloat about the imminent Romney landslide.  I told him I was equally confident that Obama was going to win, and in fact if anyone was going to win in a landslide, it would be Obama.  He was absolutely dumbfounded that I made a claim that Obama was going to win.  Other than being a Republican, he isn't an idiot.  I actually respect his work as much as anyone.  But I could tell he wasn't BSing when he said he expects a Romney landslide.  He is 100% confident Romney is going to win.  His source for news is Fox and Drudge.  I told him to get out of his bubble and do some independent research.  Of course his answer is that the rest of the world is biased against Republicans and anyone not a Republican is lying.

    Reality is going to hit them so hard I fully expect to see the RWers come into work on 11/7 with black-eyes and bandages.

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