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Nate Silver looks at the polls from Ohio over the past ten days and finds that the President has a +2.4 lead over Romney.  He concludes:

There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich... It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio's central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election
That is a nice, not so subtle critique of the media being "misinformed."

Full Silver blog post in the New York Times here.

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