Skip to main content

Nate Silver looks at the polls from Ohio over the past ten days and finds that the President has a +2.4 lead over Romney.  He concludes:

There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich... It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio's central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election
That is a nice, not so subtle critique of the media being "misinformed."

Full Silver blog post in the New York Times here.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

grytpype, deminva, JekyllnHyde, Sylv, Alma, jec, PLS, True North, slinkerwink, glitterscale, nicolemm, PeterHug, donna in evanston, ChicDemago, kpardue, SanJoseLady, Oracle2021, SallyCat, FyodorFish, grover, ssgbryan, Paulie200, dpc, amsterdam, whenwego, Loquatrix, ellefarr, retLT, jennifree2bme, artebella, CocoaLove, Chrisfs, revsue, Lilyvt, psnyder, hangingchad, NYC Sophia, Noodles, potatohead, chrismorgan, NYFM, defluxion10, econlibVA, NapaJulie, rmx2630, sebastianguy99, Longwing, Gowrie Gal, davidkc, vcmvo2, Skennet Boch, Recovering Southern Baptist, ExStr8, Ckntfld, Alice Venturi, stagemom, Dobber, Navy Vet Terp, Pam from Calif, peteri2, markdd, sunbro, LivesInAShoe, peacestpete, Ekaterin, fhcec, BachFan, edwardssl, SciFiGuy, profundo, raincrow, blueoasis, AnnCetera, gpoutney, Libby Shaw, real world chick, Terminus, el cid, ER Doc, middleagedhousewife, zhimbo, Clive all hat no horse Rodeo, kurious, Temmoku, sea note, markthshark, Loudoun County Dem, camlbacker, noofsh, newpioneer, rantsposition, mdcalifornia, SeaTurtle, jhop7, Wreck Smurfy, Rumarhazzit, uciguy30, crystalboy, chicago minx, Palafox, 1world, HappyinNM, MikePhoenix, Cordwainer, bill warnick, NewDealer, bythesea, elwior, Mother of Zeus, tofumagoo, royce, smartdemmg, pademocrat, pickandshovel, vernonbc, catly, Tam in CA, Troubadour, Tennessee Dave, oldliberal, prettygirlxoxoxo, artmartin, danoland, GoogleBonhoeffer, bobatkinson, CanyonWren, CamillesDad1, EquationDoc, petral, elziax, kevinpdx, synductive99, haremoor, Tortmaster, nancat357, astral66, Larsstephens, Clyde the Cat, BlueOak, smileycreek, brooklyns finest, sbbonerad, LaughingPlanet, NJpeach, barkworsethanbite, estreya, fidellio, dustb, gulfgal98, Mariken, rja, Texnance, nirbama, ericlewis0, Otteray Scribe, Dems in 08, dwayne, soaglow, slice, Onomastic, Maximilien Robespierre, Jasel, yellow cosmic seed, Food Gas Lodging, Front Toward Enemy, MidwestTreeHugger, spooks51, Bob Duck, sabo33, Buckeye Nation, vahana, freesia, AtomikNY, deeproots, PorridgeGun, thomask, dle2GA, SueM1121, Grandma Susie, antooo, peregrine kate, VTCC73, MikeBoyScout, joanbrooker, Chitown Kev, CoyoteMarti, DEMonrat ankle biter, ParkRanger, YaNevaNo, Liberal Granny, KiB, DeadHead, We Won, IndieGuy, a2nite, helenh1967, MartyM, parakeet, redstella, Vote4Obamain2012, Kayjay, CalBearMom, remembrance, zoebear, EliWery, howabout, northerntier, Smoh, ET3117, Waterwynd, Rumor, poppenjay, shinobi9, Gabados, blugrlnrdst, Vrolki, thatpj

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site