Skip to main content

which were not posted until after 2 AM, in part because he was traveling

His Nov,. 6 numbers are
overall  73.6%
EV  295.9

Now- cast is
overall 76.8
EV  295.9

State percentages

WI  86
NV  80  increased % due to inclusion of CallFire 50-46
IA   72
OH  74
NH  70
VA  60  increased % due to inclusion of Washs Post 51-47 & Gravis 48-48
CO  58
NC  18  this is a drop due to inclusion of latest Rasmussen 46-52
FL   36

Several comments.
1.  Most of the state polls do NOT include minor party candidates, and thus probably understate Obama's relative position
2.  As many people have noted, samples of most polls seem to understate Latino voters, and some also over sample older voters, etc.

Relative performance not affected overall  Slight drop in overall % but increase in EVs.  Former b/c of national polls later probably b/c of increased % in VA

Assuming WI & NV are pretty much locked, then OH, NH & IA would mean a minimum of 281 EVs, with VA increasingly likely to take it to 294.

We will have to see what if any impact DMR endorsement for Romney has on IA figures.  I would doubt more than 2% +/- which would still leave a 2/3 probability for Obama.

Campaign schedules changing b/c of Sandy.  Also not sure what impact upon voting Sandy may have.  No impact in FL.  The possibility remains that Obama's total popular vote could be hurt by real devastation in the Northeast, in states with no early voting in areas heavily DEM -  Philadelphia and NYC for example.

NOTE -  I believe Nate includes the Rand poll in calculating his national percentages, and this version does NOT include the 7 point margin released this morning.  Remember, Nate posted around 2 AM.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site