which were not posted until after 2 AM, in part because he was traveling
His Nov,. 6 numbers are
Now- cast is
NV 80 increased % due to inclusion of CallFire 50-46
VA 60 increased % due to inclusion of Washs Post 51-47 & Gravis 48-48
NC 18 this is a drop due to inclusion of latest Rasmussen 46-52
1. Most of the state polls do NOT include minor party candidates, and thus probably understate Obama's relative position
2. As many people have noted, samples of most polls seem to understate Latino voters, and some also over sample older voters, etc.
Relative performance not affected overall Slight drop in overall % but increase in EVs. Former b/c of national polls later probably b/c of increased % in VA
Assuming WI & NV are pretty much locked, then OH, NH & IA would mean a minimum of 281 EVs, with VA increasingly likely to take it to 294.
We will have to see what if any impact DMR endorsement for Romney has on IA figures. I would doubt more than 2% +/- which would still leave a 2/3 probability for Obama.
Campaign schedules changing b/c of Sandy. Also not sure what impact upon voting Sandy may have. No impact in FL. The possibility remains that Obama's total popular vote could be hurt by real devastation in the Northeast, in states with no early voting in areas heavily DEM - Philadelphia and NYC for example.
NOTE - I believe Nate includes the Rand poll in calculating his national percentages, and this version does NOT include the 7 point margin released this morning. Remember, Nate posted around 2 AM.