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After watching the closeness of this race through the prism of 2000 and 2004, I wanted to know if America would experience another bout of occasional (voting) irregularity.  Although those two experiences have led to better preemptive awareness and greater push for early voting, you never know what might happen when Citizens Unite.  So I crunch the numbers in effort to sleep at night.

Off the bat, I put the states I assume Obama keeps at: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME(all four), MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI --- for a total starting point of 247.

I give Rombot: AL, AK, AR, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE (all five), OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY --- for a total starting point of 191.  I’m going to concede Florida and North Carolina, putting Rombot at 235.  We can debate the last two, of course, but those are my bets.

So we begin at 247-235, advantage President Obama.  This leaves six states in play: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4).

Current 538 data has probabilities at:

Ohio – 74/26 Obama
Virginia – 60/40 Obama
Colorado – 58/42 Obama
Iowa – 72/28 Obama
Nevada – 80/20 Obama
New Hampshire – 70/30 Obama

Let’s play with those six states…

•    If Obama wins Ohio AND Virginia, then game over because he’s at 278 without CO/IA/NV/NH.

•    If Obama wins Ohio but loses Virginia, then he needs to take only Colorado, Iowa OR Nevada.  (Taking New Hampshire only would unleash 269-269 hell and give John a Boehner.)

•    If Obama loses Ohio but wins Virginia, then he needs to take any two of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire.

•    If Obama loses Ohio AND Virginia, he needs all four states to squeak out 272.

That’s our worst case.  Although I consider losing Ohio unlikely at this point, funny things tend to happen.  Thankfully, early voting erases nine hour long lines in the rain, but it makes me a little nervous to read any story about the companies that own electronic voting machines.  So let’s say it’s not impossible that Obama could lose Ohio and Virginia.  It seems probable that he will carry Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.  That potentially puts the country at the mercy of Colorado.  Hang onto your chad.

Hopefully, Ohio falls the way it should and all of this is moot (thank you very much, Nevada…and a special shout out to the GOP’s highly effective Latino outreach program).  At the end of the day, I take great comfort in the fact that President Obama has multiple paths to reelection.  For Romney to claim the same requires some Ryanesque number manipulation.  Not gonna happen.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (4+ / 0-)

    Mitt's foreign policy: Double Guantanamo, with cheese.

    by Rich N Mdriems on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 05:20:35 AM PDT

  •  Hope so Rich..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jplanner, OLinda

    I live in downtown Denver and am looking at my mail in ballot as I type.

    It's my first task of the day, and I'll drive it in tomorrow.  Say a prayer for Colorado.  

    I live in a bubble.  Left the bubble and drove to Wyoming on Wednesday.  Between downtown Denver and downtown Ft. Collins and Cheyenne there was a lot of Joe Coors, Mitt Romney action.  

    I think the people of CO are smart enough not to elect Joe Coors, but then again... you never know.

    Hoping we win this state for Barack.  

  •  I worked as an election judge here once (0+ / 0-)

    no paper trail.

    Don't know if it's been fixed because I'm mail in. Canvased here yesterday. I can see how we are having to fight for every vote. Romney voters are less shy to show their colors than Repubs were just after Bush. We canvas with volunteers in the suburbs and do no phone banking. Leave that for volunteers from other states to do via Dashboard on the OFA sites.

    How big is your personal carbon footprint?

    by ban nock on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 06:01:35 AM PDT

  •  Dems are quietly angry & we are voting; GOTV (0+ / 0-)

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:20:23 AM PDT

  •  Why not a floor of... (0+ / 0-)

    259 votes Obama vs 191 Romney.  

    259 is essentially the Gore states with Nevada.  Polling seems to suggest that Obama is ahead in these states.

    Obama has been consistently ahead in Ohio.  Colorado and New Hampshire have favored Obama (New Hampshire more than Colorado).  Virginia has been tied but now appears to be leaning toward Obama.  The lead in Florida has wavered between Romney and Obama (with the outcome now hinging on a GOTV/early vote contest).  Obama is clearly ahead in early voting in North Carolina with Romney having to come from behind to win the state.

    1) A win in Ohio is an automatic Obama victory.
    2) Wins in Colorado and New Hamsphire results in an automatic Obama victory.
    3) A win in Virginia is an automatic Obama victory.
    4) A win in Florida is an automatic and "ironic" (2000) Obama victory.
    5) A win in North Carolina is an automatic Obama victory and would portent great tidings for 2016.

    Sorry for the misuse of ironic but couldn't resist.

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