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Unchanged from Friday's results.

One note I made is that the poll still assumes a 75% white electorate among "likely voters."  This seems at least a couple points too high to me.


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Comment Preferences

  •  *yawn* national poll ... (11+ / 0-)

    Good thing Romney is doing well in Texas and South Carolina!

    Returned Peace Corps Volunteer 2005-2007, The Gambia ... A Liberal Defense Contractor (Wha?!) ...

    by AfricanLived on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:21:39 AM PDT

  •  If I'm reading this right, these are not new (0+ / 0-)

    numbers.  The sample is only up to friday...which we've already seen.

  •  Only one thing matters (10+ / 0-)

    Which candidate would you rather be? And I do mean in the narrow sense of "which one is more likely to be President"?  Romney would trade with Obama in a heartbeat.

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:22:01 AM PDT

  •  Just heard bad rumor on Poltico/battleground poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Losty, savvyspy, SoCalLiberal

    Brit Hume on Faux News just said that the poll to be released tomorrow morning will show Romney +5 (he was +2 last Monday).  If that is true, then we have another poll that will show the challenger at 50 with a national margin outside the MOE.  I'm not gripping (too hard) but national numbers like what we are seeing in some polls, plus PPP showing Obama's job approval at 44 are very troubling. That being said, PPP has understated (for who knows what reason) the President's job approval all year.  

    The point of all this is that if Obama is trailing by 2-4 points nationally, he has no chance of winning the EC.  And if he is trailing by that amount, I suspect the swing state polls this week will begin to show that.  

    •  I don't know what that poll will say but (7+ / 0-)

      I can flatly tell you that there are no state polls that back up the idea of a 5 point national lead.  

      Alternative rock with something to say:

      by khyber900 on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:28:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  which leads which? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the state polls or the national polls?

      If the Battleground poll was really taken during the same timeframe as the state polls we've been looking at, and it's methodology is roughly the same, then they should show consistent results.  Romney up by 5 points is not consistent with what we've been seeing out of the battleground states.

      The idea that the national trackers lead the state polls is, I think, a dated notion going back to when there where a lot fewer state polls coming out more sporadically.

      That being said, an R+5 poll is not a good omen. But there's no shortage of polls released in the last week that were off by 5 or more points.

    •  It's disconcerting (0+ / 0-)

      I still think we win this election.  I know analysts like Nate Silver and others who know far more about it than me say to put more stock in state polling, but it's hard not getting worked up over seeing Romney polling so well nationally.

    •  Brit Hume said? (5+ / 0-)

      They give Brit Hume their results before they release them to the public?  

      When truth is only a matter of opinion, advantage goes to the liars.

      by Sun dog on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:41:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Uh, THIS diary is about a poll that hasn't moved (9+ / 0-)

      Not even one bit.  Here you are pimping a poll that hasn't been released yet that shows otherwise, and you lap it up like a thirsty cat?   So, "the point of all this" is that if some national polls show a tied race (like this ABC/WaPo poll you are responding to with a ridiculous comment) and Reuters/Ipsos showing an actual lead for Obama,  then you take state polls that have been released in just the last few days  - Virginia up by 4, Ohio up by 5 and 4, Florida tied, NC tied, etc.  and you have an island where a couple of pollsters are making assumptions about turnout that don't seem to jive with reality.   Turnout models showing R +3 just aren't credible, most assume a slight edge for Democrats, somewhere between D+ 1 and D+ 4.  

      I assume concern trolling here, not in the mood for that.  In light of the logical lapses in your post, and the complete glossing over of the fact that the poll in THIS diary YOU responded to hasn't moved at all, in fact shows a slight improvement in Obama's approval rating,  and the Redstate/Freeper/Rove/Morris  like argumentation I am about to HR your post, but will wait for an explanatory post from you before doing so.

      Concern trolls are not getting a free ride today.  This poll hasn't changed at all, which counters your cherry picking post quite nicely.  

      •  Word. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        I assume concern trolling here, not in the mood for that.  In light of the logical lapses in your post, and the complete glossing over of the fact that the poll in THIS diary YOU responded to hasn't moved at all, in fact shows a slight improvement in Obama's approval rating,  and the Redstate/Freeper/Rove/Morris  like argumentation I am about to HR your post, but will wait for an explanatory post from you before doing so.

        Concern trolls are not getting a free ride today.

        Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter. ~ Yoda Political Compass: -8.50, -6.46

        by Cinnamon on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 08:27:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You are assuming the thing in question. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Micheline, Vote4Obamain2012, codairem

      Obama can most certainly win the EC despite losing the popular vote by a wide margin.  That it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't happen.  This election is unlike any other in a myriad number of ways, the two most important being the stark geography divisional of political values and race.

      There are also national polls showing Obama ahead, but no one is obsessing over those.

      "The attack on the truth by war begins long before war starts and continues long after a war ends." -Julian Assange

      by Pierro Sraffa on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:44:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There have been (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        3 instances since the Civil War where the popular vote winner lost the EC: 1876 (Hayes vs. Tilden), 1888 (Harrison vs. Cleveland), and 2000 (Bush vs. Gore).  Tilden beat Hayes by 3.1% (51.0-47.9).  The other two were within a percentage point.  But in an election where a candidate consistently wins his base states by smaller margins than his opponent, he can win the electoral college despite losing the popular by 2-4%.  That said, I think Obama wins the popular by 2-3%, which is what the collective state polls show, and the national polling--especially certain ones--is simply off.  As Nate has pointed out a few times, the state numbers--both in battlegrounds and base states--don't match the national polls.  So one batch is off.  History and logic would indicate that it's the nationals because there are relatively fewer data points and its harder to model a national electorate from a thousand respondent sample than a state one.

        I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

        by Superribbie on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 08:39:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  GW/ Battleground Poll 10/29 2004 (9+ / 0-)

      Bush 51, Kerry 46 (off by 3.5)

      GW/Battleground Poll 10/27 2008
      Obama 49, McCain 46 (off by 4.2)

      And always off in the same direction...

      The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present

      by Inkin on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:45:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  THIS IS NOT A NATIONAL POLL! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Losty, brn2bwild, codairem

      You're freaking out for no reason.  You can't compare a poll taken across 10 states to a national poll.  Whatever the spread in this poll, comparing it to national polls is comparing apples to oranges.

      Here's an excerpt from the last battleground poll:

      Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 percent to 48 percent.
      Read more:

      Have you googled Romney today?

      by fou on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 08:32:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I am not a quant (0+ / 0-)

    and frankly, find polliing a confusing thing.  I understand the variables here to some extent.  Are the two basic explanations for this as follows:

    1. the toss up state polls will, next week, begin to reflect the national move to Romney and Romney will likely win or

    2. the enormous disparity between Romney and Obama in the south is accounting for the continued tightness of the national race / Romney lead in Gallup, etc. and Obama will win the electoral college.

    I'd appreciate any comments giving me some insight on this, as I am really exhausted (like many of you) with the polls this election.

    Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

    by KibbutzAmiad on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:22:55 AM PDT

    •  The simplest answer (4+ / 0-)

      is that national polls cannot measure who is winning the national race, considering it is close. You will see Obama ahead some of the times, and you will see Romney other times.

      You should just look at polls from battleground states. And Obama is winning where it counts - his leads have been pretty stable in states that guarantee him 270, and his surging in states that are must win to Romney.

      I want this to be over as well.

  •  No change is ok by me. (5+ / 0-)

    At some point, Gallup and Ras are going to come down about 2-3 points, which would push the national composite to an O+1.5 lead, which would be close to where Nate Silver has it.

    This year's national polling is just putrid.  If you look at RCP's archives from 2004, there were no trackers or robopolls in the final weeks.  All traditional polling.

    This year, we have a lot of polls with questionable methodology and techniques.  I only go by state polls anyway.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:23:58 AM PDT

  •  only 1 point whiter than 2008.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Spider Stumbled, fou, pademocrat, Cederico

    2008 was 74% white by exit polls...

    In the last four years, we might have gotten a shade less white,  but a drop in minority turnout could yield the numbers seen here.

    The real take away is that we need to change the LV numbers into the RV numbers.

  •  Looked at Obama's Approval Rating in the Poll (4+ / 0-)

    Went up by One Percent. So that's good.

  •  Rain East of the Mississippi From Now Past Electn (0+ / 0-)

    day. GOTV efforts become doubly important.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:33:39 AM PDT

    •  Not true (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TheGreatLeapForward, newdem1960

      Rain through Friday then clearing.

    •  Sandy or what is left of Sandy is moving farther (0+ / 0-)

      north and may even miss most of PA.  By Thursday Sandy will only be a memory.  The storm is moving faster and will blow through the area it hits quickly thus lowering the amounts of rain that fall.

      Look at this satellite -

      Sandy is quite exposed to the south and east and is most likely no longer a hurricane.  Also the jet stream is rapidly moving from the south to the north along the US east coast, I cannot see this storm moving to the west in the mid-atlantic, maybe it will hit New England.  Also the longer it stays over the cold northern atlantic the weaker it will get.  

      One last thought - this is supposed to be a super storm because a mid level wave was supposed to phase with Sandy somewhere near Delaware.  Now the latest track is several hundred miles north and that phasing may never occur.  

      •  Alll the local mets and meteorology forums (0+ / 0-)

        continue to say this storm is unprecedented, with winds possibly reaching 80-100 mph gusts. A noreaster with thepower of a hurricane. NYC schools just closed. It is already flooding in central NJ near Raritan Bay with tides 3 ft above normal. Winds are already 30-35 and the mofo isn't even here yet. Folks who want to know more can check out the American Weather Forums or Weather Underground. Stay away from accuweather it is full of wingnuts. Also helpful is to read the NOAA discussions for your region. These government folks do a great job and don't hype. And right now for NJ they are saying take steps to protect life and property. There may be less rain, and that's a good thing. Only 5-10 inches as opposed to 15-25....

  •  Not that I care about national tracker polling (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Inkin, TWOFACEMITT, EcosseNJ

    but so far, Ras moved 1 point in Obama's favor.  Rand moved about a point in Obama's favor.  ABC had no change.

    So far for national polls released on Sunday, Obama has 2 points net movement in his favor.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:45:18 AM PDT

  •  Here's national polling from 2000, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jenesq, TWOFACEMITT, KibbutzAmiad, rennert

    which of course resulted in a 0.5% victory for Gore.

    As a reminder of just how flawed national polling is in tight races.

    The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present

    by Inkin on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 07:51:31 AM PDT

  •  3/4 of the regional breakdown is Obama+ (5+ / 0-)

    The Southern and the usual red mountain states are fuelling this gap. The breakdown of late according to ABC was R+16 and Gallup had it as R+22. These two regions are currently looking redder by 10-30pts than 2008 as you can see and aside from Utah, where a recent poll not added to RCP [who'd have thought!] had Romney at 70-21, this is the most recenting polling plus John McCain's final numbers bracketed for comparison;

    UT - 06/15 - 06/21    68    26    Romney +42 [McCain +28]
    ID - 10/08 - 10/10    63    27    Romney +36 [McCain +25]
    ND - 10/12 - 10/15    57    32    Romney +25 [McCain +9]
    LA - 10/02 - 10/04    59    36    Romney +23 [McCain +19]
    WV - 09/30 - 10/02    54    33    Romney +21 McCain +13]
    AR - 09/17 - 09/17    56    35    Romney +21 [McCain +20]
    TX - 09/10 - 09/26    58    39    Romney +19 [McCain +12]
    MO - 10/12 - 10/13    55    41    Romney +14 [McCain +0.1]
    GA - 10/08 - 10/12    51    43    Romney +8 [McCain +5]
    MT - 10/14 - 10/14    53    45    Romney +8 [McCain +2]
    IN - 10/10 - 10/11    54    41    Romney +13 [Obama +1.1]

    OK - 07/26 - 08/14    58    29    Romney +29 [McCain +31]
    NE - 09/17 - 09/20    53    39    Romney +14 [McCain +15]
    KY - 09/11 - 09/13    53    39    Romney +14 [McCain +16]

    Obama better than 2008;
    TN - 05/02 - 05/09    47    40    Romney +7 [McCain +15]
    AZ - 10/04 - 10/10    42    44    Obama +2 [McCain +8]

    Much of the polling from SC, SD, AL, MS, KS and AK is either 2011 pre Romney or early 2012 so rather out of date.

    "Priebus? Priebus? damnit man! get thee to Twitter"

    by EcosseNJ on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 08:01:21 AM PDT

  •  *yawn* (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward, brn2bwild

    Say Intrade, Betfair, Nate Silver, Sam Wang, Iowa Electronic Markets...

  •  LV is BS (0+ / 0-)

    I can't say that too often. Every day I see this stream of demographic diarrhea flow through dkos, and every day I have to write these same words: likely voter screens are crap  for reasons that have been amply described by some of our more esteemed fellows. It would be nice to see these jerk-off polls go away permanently.

    For if there is a sin against life, it consists perhaps not so much in despairing of life as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this life. - Albert Camus

    by Anne Elk on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 10:23:16 AM PDT

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