The eastern seaboard is about to be buried under Superstorm Sandy. I'm curious as to whether the storm will affect response rates, and the poll toplines. But for now, let's look at the polls we have pre-Sandy.
Overall, it was a positive day for the President, particularly at the state level. As a result, his rating is above the status quo.
The national trackers generally moved towards Obama today. Romney's lead in Gallup decreased from 5 to 4 points, and in Rasmussen from 4 to 3 points. In the Reuters-Ipsos tracker, Obama increased his lead from 2 to 3 points. The WaPo/ABC poll stayed the same at 49-48 for Romney. The only poll that moved towards Mitt today was the one that is generally most friendly to Obama, IBD-TIPP. That poll showed the President's lead cut from 3 to 1.
The DC press corps is so eager to perpetuate the Mittmentum meme, that they're cherry picking the state polls today. Taking all the state polls as a whole, it was actually a great day for the President.
We discussed the Ohio newspaper poll last night, which showed the candidates tied. PPP is out with a new poll from Ohio, taken LATER than the newspaper survey, which shows Obama with a 51-47 lead, up from a 1 point lead last week. PPP also shows the President leading by 2 in New Hampshire, a 3 point swing from their last poll there. Priorities USA showed Obama leading by 3 in Virginia, very similar to the Washington Post survey from yesterday showing Obama up 4. There's simply no scenario for Mittens to win the White House without either Ohio or Virginia, and he very well may be trailing in both of them.
Obama also got very good results from a firm I've never heard of, Pharo, which showed him leading by 2 in Florida and by 4 in Pennsylvania. Of course, I look at any firm I've never heard of with great skepticism.
The only good poll for Mitt today was the one the mainstream media focused on the most. It showed Romney trailing by only 3 in Minnesota. First of all, it's not that surprising to see Minnesota get closer. Obama won Minnesota by fewer points than he did Wisconsin in 2008. Secondly, Mason Dixon has a Republican house effect this cycle, so it probably understates the President's lead. This didn't stop villagers like The Fix from tweeting "SIREN" when linking to this poll. It also caused Mitt's mainstream media cheerleaders on Twitter, like Josh Kraushaar of Hotline and Rick Klein of ABC to go crazy on the Mittmentum theme. People, this is one poll. Obama still leads in Minnesota by 5.3 according to the RCP average.
Overall, another day of polls that makes it seem harder for Mitt Romney to get to 270, which is all that matters.