Unless your power is out due to Sandy, or you've been living under a rock, you probably saw something like this tonight:
@ppppolls: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49/47 in New Hampshire, a 3 point improvement from our poll last week when he was down 49/48.Then you may have seen teacherken's diary:
PPP Ohio: 51-47 Obama, up from 49-48Followed by the alleged "trifecta,"
@ppppolls: Barack Obama leads our new Florida poll 49-48Although - just to show what that 1 point margin really is, as teacherken pointed out in his diary:
The actual numbers, according to a tweet from Tom Jensen, was 335-332After review, PPP hasn't given us squat. More below.
First - the last tweet from PPP should be very telling. The difference between a 1 point Romney advantage in NH and a 2 point Obama lead - likely something like 9 people in the sample. 9 people guys. Can you see why polls may be off the "truth" of where the populace really is by 3-4 points?
But second, and this is the more important point, PPP didn't give us anything. PPP doesn't tally the votes on election night. PPP doesn't change the results, they just measure the state of the world. So what does change things? Stump speeches, news coverage, political ads - things that are not under our control. What else changes things? GoTV, canvassing, data entry, donations, telling friends, getting people to the polls, doing lit drops, registering voters, fighting back against misinformation. THese things are under our control.
Bottom line - PPP didn't give us anything. PPP just gave us one measure of the value of our work. Huge positive - but the thanks go to us, not to PPP. Second - in these samples, the raw numbers are small. If we let up, the real polls may measure our lack of effort on election day.
Keep working - if you are able to volunteer, volunteer. If you're able to donate, donate. Do whatever you can do. And if you haven't done anything yet, then think about what you could be doing to try to move the needle.