The Telegraph, one of the UK's better, if editorially right-of-centre, newspapers, has an interesting article about Nate Silver this morning:
It's by Dan Hodges, a "Blairite cuckoo in the Miliband nest":
Where most political commentators output is the product of briefings, gossip and personal perception, Silver deals in cold, hard facts. And at the moment, Silver’s facts are being fired like bullets into the heart of the Romney campaign.
Over the past week Romney has had a clear strategy; give the impression of momentum. Demonstrate the post-debate surge is continuing. Get people talking about how the race is his to lose.
Nate Silver is Mitt Romney’s nemesis. Not intentionally; although he admits to being an Obama supporter, his whole career is predicated on getting his predictions right. Like he did in 2008, when "Poblano" accurately predicted the result of 49 of the 50 states, and all 35 senate races.Cheered me up this morning, anyway! More cheering than the Guardian, which I normally read, and seems editorially too worried to let itself be too cheerful.
And it is that reputation for accuracy that is so damaging to the Romney campaign’s attempt to sustain their precious “momentum” narrative. People listen to Silver. And over the past 48 hours, the narrative is starting to shift. “Mitt-mentum? Not so fast” – US News & World report. “Romney’s Momentum Seems To Have Stopped. “The momentum myth” – Washington Post.