Closer than Ohio. Romney will have to spend resources in Florida late in the game. :-)
We can win Florida! Go team blue!
Florida Early Vote Favors Obama, But When Election-Day Romney Supporters are Factored In, Sunshine State is Exactly Tied:
8 days until votes are counted in the election for President, the 5% of Florida voters who today are undecided will determine whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama get the state's critical 29 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa. Among Florida voters who have made up their minds, including a large number who have already returned a ballot, the contest is 47% Romney, 47% Obama.
Romney starts off 15 points in the hole: Obama leads 57% to 42% among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. But Romney leads by 13 points among the larger group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they will vote on Election Day. When the 2 groups are proportionally blended, the candidates finish exactly even.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of Florida adults 10/25/12 through 10/27/12. Of the adults, 643 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 595 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to do so on or before Election Day. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (71% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (29% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.