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This post at the Latino Decisions blog drills down into the Florida International University robo-poll from earlier this month which claimed that Florida Latinos were breaking for Obama by only  50.7% to  44.2%

The post offers two things to consider.

1.  The poll did not include cell phones, and as most here already know, we now have a wealth of information that this means that non-Cuban Hispanics are likely to be undersampled.

2.  It does not account for the political attitudes of Cuban-American voters as distinct from other Latino groups, for example Puerto Ricans. As the post notes:

shows that 39% of Cuban Americans intend to vote for Obama (50% for Romney), compared to 71% of all other Latinos in the poll (22% for Romney). The issue here is that the FIU results were not “weighted” to account for the possibility that Cuban Americans—i.e., votes for Romney—were overrepresented in the poll relative to their actual share of Florida’s Latino electorate.
The author of the post, Casey A. Klofstad, is an associate professor of political science at the University of Miami.  It is his opinion, not officially representing Latino Decisions, but there is no doubt that they agree with him by letting him make this guest post, which provides lots of data.

Thought it was worth ensuring that people were aware of it.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:27:11 AM PDT

  •  well, I hope this info is useful to some (0+ / 0-)

    granted, it is deconstructing a poll from several weeks ago

    it does reinforce what we are seeing from other sources, such as the internals of the new SUSA poll which seems to indicate Obama is splitting Cuban-Americans with Romney.

    Do with it what you want.

    Posted it to provide a service.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:38:55 AM PDT

  •  SUSA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    this morning suggests Obama is up 13 amoung Hispanics.  Not a huge believer in the SUSA race cross-tabs (people seem to lie - is Romney REALLY winning 14% of the black vote).

    Importantly, though, SUSA calls cell phones.  

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:46:06 AM PDT

  •  Cuban absentee voters probably rated as LV (0+ / 0-)

    Cubans vote absentee ballots more than other Latinos, and so this could make it more likely for Cubans to be considered as likely voters, which could bias the poll. But we don't know if that particular LV screen considered absentee voting.

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