Now that we're a week away from the election, I'm going to try predicting the winners for congressional, state senate, and state assembly races. In this prediction, there are no tossups, tilts, leans, or likelies. It's one or the other. After all, there are only two options to choose from.
District |
Cook PVI |
Representative |
01
|
R+10
|
Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale)
Retiring: Wally Herger (R-Chico)
|
02
|
D+19
|
Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael)
Retiring: Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma)
|
03
|
D+1
|
John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove)
|
04
|
R+10
|
Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove)
|
05
|
D+18
|
Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena)
|
06
|
D+13
|
Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento)
|
07
|
R+3
|
Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove)
Defeating: Dan Lungren (R-Gold River)
Democratic gain
|
08
|
R+12
|
Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley)
New seat
|
09
|
D+2
|
Jerry McNerney (D-Stockton)
|
10
|
R+5
|
Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)
|
11
|
D+17
|
George Miller (D-Martinez)
|
12
|
D+35
|
Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco)
|
13
|
D+37
|
Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)
|
14
|
D+23
|
Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough)
|
15
|
D+15
|
Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin)
Defeating: Pete Stark (D-San Lorenzo)
|
16
|
D+2
|
Jim Costa (D-Fresno)
|
17
|
D+18
|
Mike Honda (D-San Jose)
|
18
|
D+18
|
Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton)
|
19
|
D+16
|
Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose)
|
20
|
D+19
|
Sam Farr (D-Carmel)
|
21
|
R+3
|
David Valadao (R-Hanford)
New seat
Republican gain
|
22
|
R+12
|
Devin Nunes (R-Tulare)
|
23
|
R+18
|
Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield)
|
24
|
D+3
|
Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara)
|
25
|
R+5
|
Buck McKeon (R-Santa Clarita)
|
26
|
D+2
|
Julia Brownley (D-Oak Park)
Retiring: Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley)
Democratic gain
|
27
|
D+9
|
Judy Chu (D-Monterey Park)
|
28
|
D+19
|
Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)
|
29
|
D+21
|
Tony Cardenas (D-Panorama City)
New seat
|
30
|
D+13
|
Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks)
Defeating: Howard Berman (D-Van Nuys)
|
31
|
D+2
|
Gary Miller (R-Rancho Cucamonga)
Retiring: Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands)
|
32
|
D+9
|
Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk)
Retiring: David Dreier (R-San Dimas)
|
33
|
D+12
|
Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles)
|
34
|
D+28
|
Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles)
|
35
|
D+10
|
Joe Baca (D-Rialto)
|
36
|
R+3
|
Raul Ruiz (D-Palm Desert)
Defeating: Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)
Democratic gain
|
37
|
D+33
|
Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles)
|
38
|
D+9
|
Linda Sánchez (D-Lakewood)
|
39
|
R+7
|
Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)
|
40
|
D+25
|
Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-Boyle Heights)
|
41
|
D+3
|
Mark Takano (D-Riverside)
New seat
Democratic gain
|
42
|
R+12
|
Ken Calvert (R-Corona)
|
43
|
D+23
|
Maxine Waters (D-Los Angeles)
|
44
|
D+29
|
Janice Hahn (D-San Pedro)
Defeating: Laura Richardson (D-San Pedro)
|
45
|
R+8
|
John Campbell (R-Irvine)
|
46
|
D+3
|
Loretta Sanchez (D-Anaheim)
|
47
|
D+5
|
Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)
New seat
|
48
|
R+8
|
Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach)
|
49
|
R+5
|
Darrell Issa (R-Vista)
|
50
|
R+14
|
Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine)
|
51
|
D+11
|
Juan Vargas (D-San Diego)
Retiring: Bob Filner (D-San Diego)
|
52
|
D+1
|
Scott Peters (D-San Diego)
Defeating: Brian Bilbray (R-San Diego)
Democratic gain
|
53
|
D+7
|
Susan Davis (D-San Diego)
|
District |
Senator |
District |
Senator |
01
|
Ted Gaines (R-Rocklin)
|
02
|
Noreen Evans (D-Santa Rosa)
|
03
|
Lois Wolk (D-Davis)
|
04
|
Jim Nielsen (R-Gerber)
Running in Nov. 6 special election
|
05
|
Cathleen Galgiani (D-Stockton)
New seat
Democratic gain
|
06
|
Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento)
|
07
|
Mark DeSaulnier (D-Concord)
|
08
|
Tom Berryhill (R-Modesto)
|
09
|
Loni Hancock (D-Berkeley)
|
10
|
Ellen Corbett (D-San Leandro)
|
11
|
Mark Leno (D-San Francisco)
|
12
|
Anthony Cannella (R-Ceres)
|
13
|
Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo)
Termed out: Joe Simitian (D-Palo Alto)
|
14
|
Michael Rubio (D-Shafter)
|
15
|
Jim Beall (D-San Jose)
Termed out: Elaine Alquist (D-Santa Clara)
|
16
|
Jean Fuller (R-Bakersfield)
|
17
|
Bill Monning (D-Carmel)
Retiring: Sam Blakeslee (R-San Luis Obispo)
Democratic gain
|
18
|
Alex Padilla (D-Pacoima)
|
19
|
Hannah-Beth Jackson (D-Santa Barbara)
Retiring: Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark)
Democratic gain
|
20
|
Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-Chino)
|
21
|
Steve Knight (R-Palmdale)
Retiring: Sharon Runner (R-Lancaster)
|
22
|
Ed Hernandez (D-West Covina)
|
23
|
Bill Emmerson (R-Hemet)
|
24
|
Kevin de León (D-Los Angeles)
|
25
|
Carol Liu (D-La Cañada Flintridge)
|
26
|
Ted Lieu (D-Torrance)
|
27
|
Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills)
|
28
|
Leland Yee (D-San Francisco)?†
|
29
|
Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar)
|
30
|
Curren Price (D-Los Angeles)
|
31
|
Richard Roth (D-Riverside)
New seat
Democratic gain
|
32
|
Ron Calderon (D-Montebello)
|
33
|
Ricardo Lara (D-Bell Gardens)
Termed out: Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)
|
34
|
Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana)
|
35
|
Rod Wright (D-Inglewood)
|
36
|
Mark Wyland (R-Escondido)
|
37
|
Mimi Walters (R-Irvine)
|
38
|
Joel Anderson (R-Alpine)
|
39
|
Marty Block (D-San Diego)
Termed out: Christine Kehoe (D-San Diego)
|
40
|
Juan Vargas (D-San Diego)
Ben Hueso (D-San Diego)?‡
|
† SD-28 has no corresponding incumbent in the area. Leland Yee's old SD-08 was torn apart by redistricting and subsumed into the new SD-11 (Leno) and SD-13 (Hill). Therefore he is here as a placeholder (for the purposes of this diary or even in real life). He's termed out anyway, so it doesn't really matter.
‡ Juan Vargas is going to Congress, so there will be a special election to find his successor. Current assemblyman Ben Hueso is the most prominent name in this district and is rumored to run here after Vargas moves up or is gone.
District |
Assemblymember |
District |
Assemblymember |
01
|
Brian Dahle (R-Bieber)
Retiring: Jim Nielsen (R-Gerber)
|
02
|
Wesley Chesbro (D-Arcata)
|
03
|
Dan Logue (R-Loma Rica)
|
04
|
Mariko Yamada (D-Davis)
|
05
|
Rico Oller (R-San Andreas)
New seat
Republican gain
|
06
|
Beth Gaines (R-Rocklin)
|
07
|
Roger Dickinson (D-Sacramento)
|
08
|
Ken Cooley (D-Rancho Cordova)
Retiring: Alyson Huber (D-El Dorado Hills)
|
09
|
Richard Pan (D-Sacramento)
|
10
|
Michael Allen (D-San Rafael)
|
11
|
Jim Frazier (D-Oakley)
New seat
|
12
|
Kristin Olsen (R-Modesto)
|
13
|
Susan Eggman (D-Stockton)
Termed out: Cathleen Galgiani (D-Stockton)
|
14
|
Susan Bonilla (D-Concord)
|
15
|
Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley)
|
16
|
Joan Buchanan (D-Alamo)
|
17
|
Tom Ammiano (D-San Francisco)
|
18
|
Rob Bonta (D-Alameda)
Termed out: Sandré Swanson (D-Alameda)
|
19
|
Phil Ting (D-San Francisco)
Termed out: Fiona Ma (D-San Francisco)
|
20
|
Bill Quirk (D-Hayward)
Termed out: Mary Hayashi (D-Hayward)
|
21
|
Adam Gray (D-Merced)
Retiring: Bill Berryhill (R-Ceres)
Democratic gain
|
22
|
Kevin Mullin (D-South San Francisco)
Retiring: Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo)
|
23
|
Jim Patterson (R-Fresno)
Retiring: Linda Halderman (R-Fresno)
|
24
|
Rich Gordon (D-Menlo Park)
|
25
|
Bob Wieckowski (D-Fremont)
|
26
|
Connie Conway (R-Tulare)
|
27
|
Nora Campos (D-San Jose)
|
28
|
Paul Fong (D-Cupertino)
|
29
|
Mark Stone (D-Santa Cruz)
Retiring: Bill Monning (D-Carmel)
|
30
|
Luis Alejo (D-Watsonville)
|
31
|
Henry Perea (D-Fresno)
|
32
|
Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield)
Retiring: David Valadao (R-Hanford)
Democratic gain
|
33
|
Tim Donnelly (R-Twin Peaks)
|
34
|
Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield)
|
35
|
Katcho Achadjian (R-San Luis Obispo)
|
36
|
Ron Smith (R-Lancaster)
Retiring: Steve Knight (R-Palmdale)
|
37
|
Das Williams (D-Santa Barbara)
|
38
|
Scott Wilk (R-Santa Clarita)
Termed out: Cameron Smyth (R-Santa Clarita)
|
39
|
Raul Bocanegra (D-Pacoima)
Termed out: Felipe Fuentes (D-Sylmar)
|
40
|
Mike Morrell (R-Rancho Cucamonga)
|
41
|
Chris Holden (D-Pasadena)
Retiring: Anthony Portantino (D-La Cañada Flintridge)
|
42
|
Brian Nestande (R-Palm Desert)
|
43
|
Mike Gatto (D-Silver Lake)
|
44
|
Jeff Gorell (R-Camarillo)
|
45
|
Bob Blumenfield (D-Woodland Hills)
|
46
|
Adrin Nazarian (D-Sherman Oaks)
New seat
|
47
|
Cheryl Brown (D-Rialto)
Retiring: Wilmer Carter (D-Rialto)
|
48
|
Roger Hernandez (D-West Covina)
|
49
|
Ed Chau (D-Monterey Park)
Retiring: Mike Eng (D-Monterey Park)
|
50
|
Betsy Butler (D-Beverly Hills)
|
51
|
Jimmy Gomez (D-Echo Park)
Retiring: Gil Cedillo (D-Los Angeles)
|
52
|
Norma Torres (D-Pomona)
|
53
|
John Pérez (D-Los Angeles)
|
54
|
Holly Mitchell (D-Los Angeles)
|
55
|
Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills)
|
56
|
V. Manuel Perez (D-Coachella)
|
57
|
Ian Calderon (D-Whittier)
Termed out: Charles Calderon (D-Whittier)
|
58
|
Cristina Garcia (D-Bell Gardens)
Termed out: Tony Mendoza (D-Artesia)
|
59
|
Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D-Los Angeles)
Termed out: Mike Davis (D-Los Angeles)
|
60
|
Eric Linder (R-Corona)
Retiring: Jeff Miller (R-Corona)
|
61
|
Jose Medina (D-Riverside)
New seat
Democratic gain
|
62
|
Steven Bradford (D-Gardena)
|
63
|
Anthony Rendon (D-Lakewood)
Retiring: Ricardo Lara (D-Bell Gardens)
|
64
|
Isadore Hall (D-Compton)
|
65
|
Chris Norby (R-Fullerton)
|
66
|
Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance)
New seat
|
67
|
Phil Paule (R-French Valley)
Termed out: Kevin Jeffries (R-Lake Elsinore)
|
68
|
Don Wagner (R-Irvine)
|
69
|
Tom Daly (D-Anaheim)
Termed out: Jose Solorio (D-Santa Ana)
|
70
|
Bonnie Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)
|
71
|
Brian Jones (R-Santee)
|
72
|
Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos)
Termed out: Jim Silva (R-Huntington Beach)
|
73
|
Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point)
|
74
|
Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa)
|
75
|
Marie Waldron (R-Escondido)
New seat
Republican gain
|
76
|
Rocky Chavez (R-Oceanside)
Termed out: Martin Garrick (R-Carlsbad)
|
77
|
Brian Maeinschein (R-San Diego)
Retiring: Nathan Fletcher (I-San Diego)
Republican gain
|
78
|
Toni Atkins (D-San Diego)
|
79
|
Shirley Weber (D-San Diego)
Retiring: Marty Block (D-San Diego)
|
80
|
Ben Hueso (D-San Diego)
|
Discuss.