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Ok, some of us have Republican friends, spouses, family members and bosses. Some think that Romney is way ahead; or so they say.

They are really acting a bit like this:

Let them enjoy the next few days.

Don't let them see the betting lines which show President O as about a 70 percent favorite.

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Comment Preferences

  •  two comments (4+ / 0-)

    1. These are chimps and not monkeys and

    2. As far as the bettling lines:  1/3 means you have to bet 3 dollars to win one; this means that they think (approximately) that there are 3 out of 1+3 = 4 chances that Obama will win. 11/5 means that you bet 5 to win 11; this means that they think that Romney has a 5 out of 11+ 5 = 16 chance of winning.

    "Obama won. Get over it."

    by onanyes on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:16:08 PM PDT

    •  almost 70% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The most efficient global betting market for most contests available is usually Pinnacle. (US customers have not been able to wager there for years.)

      This morning, the lines were +199 Romney or -222 Obama.

      These correspond to between 66.5% and 68.9%.

      As of right now, they have moved to +205 Romney or -230 Obama. This is between 68.2% and 69.7%.

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:17:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Whoops (0+ / 0-)

      Didn't realize that you were the original diarist. I thought you were trying to correct the diarist (by translating the lines)!

      The vig on those lines from your link is obscene. Note that there is still no way to arbitrage against Pinnacle. The best price you can get for Rmoney from that tracker is +229 when I clicked it a couple second ago. You'll have to buy Obama at -230 from Pinny. Lines get scalped for pennies, so nobody is going to get out of line from Pinnacle for long.

      I  think offering to wager is a fine response to people who are claiming that Romney is a favorite. Whatever amount that you can get down that they can still consider to be a "fun" bet.

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:46:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I got office mates that are convinced that (4+ / 0-)

    the president is losing the election.

    I almost feel bad for them

  •  Even my 14 y.o. son, who's no Republican, was (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    onanyes, cany, scribeboy

    spouting the talking point that "Romney's ahead in the polls." My distress was immediate and vocal.  (Which polls? Have you heard about the battleground polls? Poor kid -- he'll be more careful next time . . .)

    Every honest communication poses a risk that we will hear something that could challenge or change us. -- Kenneth Cloke

    by GreenMtnState on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:18:33 PM PDT

  •  Sadly, they're being set up for the inevitable (6+ / 0-)

    "Obama stole the election" meme we'll be hearing for the next four years.

    "I was a big supporter of waterboarding" - Dick Cheney 2/14/10

    by Bob Love on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:19:17 PM PDT

  •  Popular Vote (0+ / 0-)

    He might lose the PV, but it all comes down to electorate votes, I guess they forget that.  Most the the swing states Mittens is looking up, trying to figure out how to get the lead.  Anyway, Mittens is desperate, Jeep ads telling lies, running ads in PA, and MI, where he will not win.  

    Desperate measures for a desperate Man

  •  It's What FOX News & The Romney Campaign.... (7+ / 0-)

    tell them 24/7.   It's their echo chamber, & they can't afford to step away from that chamber.    It reinforces their beliefs that the President is a Kenyan Muslim who hates the troops & America.

    They have to believe Romney is winning.....or their belief system will crumple.  

  •  Betting schmetting. (0+ / 0-)

    The bettors can be wrong. On any Sunday observe how many NFL games come in with a result far different than the betting line (and there is a lot more money bet on an NFL game than on a presidential election). We really don't know shit; we sift through the tea leaves trying to guess in advance what the election result will be, rationalizing why we should ignore things like the Gallup poll and early voting trends in IA while believing 100% that the undercount of cell phone users and Spanish speakers will come through with extra points for us. Half of the country is going to be despondent next Wednesday, and half will say "I knew it!".

    •  Not just that (0+ / 0-)

      models (Nate Silver), polls (see, futures and betting lines.

      "Obama won. Get over it."

      by onanyes on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 05:44:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  How many times must (0+ / 0-)

        Silver remind people that his analyses are just statistical, and could be wrong? He understands that any model built using historical data won't work on the day those assumptions change. You are reading too much into his numbers and the Intrade betting line.

        •  I know; it is probabilistic (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Think of it this way: president O's chances are something like this: NBA player at the free throw line.  He makes the shot, President O wins.  He misses: President O loses.

          So, of course, this is far from certain but I like our chances and would NOT trade places with them.

          "Obama won. Get over it."

          by onanyes on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:08:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's a good way to visualize it. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            onanyes, Gator Keyfitz

            ...and I can see Romney and his vast clan behind the goal waving those stupid styrofoam sticks as the President comes to the line.

            The fact that Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and the Ku Klux Klan are all voting Republican is all the reason I need to vote straight Democratic

            by ZedMont on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:15:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  market largely agrees with Silver (0+ / 0-)

          Silver has a 72.9% chance on his site right now.

          Someone with access to Pinnacle can buy Obama at 69.7%.

          The edge there is very thin.

          Intrade is not a real market. It is a toy market, with barriers to entry, tiny possible betting amounts, and high vigorish. It is a waste of time for serious bettors.

          The plural of anecdote is not data.

          by Skipbidder on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:22:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  NFL? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The efficient markets are not wrong very often. The fact that the underdog wins a game doesn't mean that the line was wrong.

      Very few people are capable of beating even reduced-vigorish lines in the most efficient markets.

      People who are beating NFL are beating stale lines (or beating books that still offer mispriced exotics).

      Pinnacle was offering a Romney +199/Obama -222 line this morning (it has since moved in favor of Obama to -230). This corresponds to a vig-free % in the neighborhood of 69%. Silver's model is at 72.9%. If I could legally place an Obama wager at Pinny, I'd put one down, but it wouldn't be a high portion of my gambling bankroll.

      The plural of anecdote is not data.

      by Skipbidder on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:36:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A Prediction (6+ / 0-)

    Obama will win by roughly the same margins and roughly the states that Nate Silver, Sam Wang, and the Huff Post suggest he will (~295 or so).

    BUT, Republicans and the R-leaning pollsters will learn nothing.  I can almost guarantee that they will claim that the October Surprise (Sandy) changed the direction of the race at the last minute.  Their polls were so, so accurate (they'll claim), but Obama got lucky at the last minute.  They will argue that it wasn't their message, or their candidate, or their truly odious platform.  Obama will have won (they'll claim) simply because he was lucky enough to look "Presidential" during a crisis.

    In other words, Rasmussen, Gallup, Gravis, and all of other friends will be back in another 2 years, and will shamelessly insist that their polling is accurate and unbiased.

  •  you are all wrong (5+ / 0-)

    mittens will win the presidency....of alabama.

  •  O 70% favorite (0+ / 0-)

    You happy with a 30% chance of Romney?

  •  One sure fire way for them to prove their theory (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    that Romney is way ahead is to stay home.

  •  Not to be a downer, but... (0+ / 0-)

    70% chance of winning is about the same as the odds of surviving Russian Roulette.  I.e., good, but the consequences of a bad outcome are zero-sum.

    Voter suppression is treason.

    by Troubadour on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 06:32:07 PM PDT

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