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West Palm Beach TV reporter Evan Axelbank:

Here is memo from a #PBC #GOP campaign adviser to a candidate @wptv @ofa_fl @mittromney says Dems cleaning clock http://t.co/...
@EvanAxelbank via Camera on iOS

The tweet pic is hard to read, so here's the transcript. "EV" is "early vote", and "AB" is "absentee ballots". The numbers are from Palm Beach County:

Subject: EV/AB numbers

The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling. As of yesterday, Republicans made up only 22% of early voters and 30% of returned absentee votes.

This is closer to (and worse than) 2008 where we saw 19% EV and 38% of the absentees. 2010 (our blowout year) was 33% of EV and 45% of AB.

Conclusion: the Democrat turnout machine in the county has been very effective and they are cleaning our clock. Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races.

NET: when you are calling or canvassing, remind people how effective our opposition has been and how they must not only get themselves to the polls but their friends and neighbors as well.

@georgiapirates I have confirmed the numbers. The numbers are accurate.
@EvanAxelbank via Twitter for BlackBerry®

In 2008, President Barack Obama won Palm Beach County 361,271 (61%) to 226,036 (38%), a net 135,000-vote advantage in a state he won by just 240,000 votes.

Two years later, depressed early vote in Palm Beach County helped doom Democrats in a gubernatorial race they lost by just 60,000 votes. That the county looks better than 2008 is not a good sign for Mitt Romney, no matter how much faith this guy puts in the polling.

Polling, by the way, that Romney no longer leads. (The composite as I write this is Obama 48.4, Romney 48.2.

Remember when Obama had supposedly pulled out of Florida? Ha ha, yeah. Things are going so well for Team Red, in fact, that the campaign that is supposedly expanding into new states like Michigan and Pennsylvania spent October 27th in Florida, and plans to spend all of Wednesday in the Sunshine State as well.

You don't see Obama campaigning in Michigan.

Originally posted to kos on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 10:25 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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