Quinnipiac University, on behalf of CBS and the NY Times, stuck a dagger in Romney's Ohio hopes by showing President Barack Obama up 50-45, as well as a one-point lead in Florida and two-point lead in Virginia. Marquette University, the best pollster during the Wisconsin recall, now shows Obama winning the state 51-43. Their last poll a couple of weeks ago had it 49-48 Obama. PPP has Obama cruising in Iowa 50-45, and in Wisconsin 51-46.
This is it, the stretch run, and Romney is losing ground almost everywhere. Let's look at our handy chart of the battleground state composites, but this time I'm comparing the results to that of 10/19—the Apex of Romney's numbers in this feature (he had better numbers in a handful of states at other times, but close enough).
What this shows is that Romney has given back a huge chunk of his post-first debate gains. Florida, New Hampshire and Virginia, in particular, show massive movement back to the president (and ironically, none of these had early voting at the time to try and lock in some of those gains for Romney).
Romney has enjoyed some improvement in both Nevada and Wisconsin, but neither is particularly close. At this point, Obama is headed toward a fairly comfortable victory assuming, of course, that we GOTV like crazy. That's why Republicans are flailing about, trying to make something happen in Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Mexico. Pretty soon they'll announce spending in Nova Scotia to try and maintain their "momentum" fiction.
Because there's one more data point of particular interest in these numbers—Romney's percentages. Remember in the summer how Romney couldn't get out of the mid-40s? In the vast majority of states, he was stuck around 42-46 percent in each state. After the first debate, those numbers increased dramatically, in the high 40s. On 10/19, Romney was above 47 in five of the nine battlegrounds. Today, he hits that mark in just two. You ain't gonna win shit stuck in the 46s.
And Americans know it. Gallup finds that 54 percent of Americans think Obama will win, compared to 34 percent of conservative dead-enders who live in denial. That also means that 54 percent of Americans laugh at Gallup's outlier daily tracking poll.
Finally, Florida has shifted back to an Obama lead for the first time in this feature since Oct. 11. It's nice seeing all that Blue again.
It also gives Democrats an 8-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot. Not sure I buy that, but if true, it would get us close to the House. Unfortunately, no one else is that optimistic for House Dems.