Let me be more specific: If turnout and support is as high among minorities as polls indicate, and if President Obama gets at least as much support from white voters as Democratic House candidates did in the horrid 2010 midterm elections, then Romney cannot win the popular vote.

But you can play with the numbers yourself to predict Obama's margin, with your own assumptions.

It just takes three simple steps!

1. Pick the level of minority support you think Obama will get
Scenario 1 - 2008 levels (this is about what general polls show)
Scenario 2 - better than 2008 (this is what minority-specific polls show, see below)
Scenario 3 - 2004 levels (what Republicans are hoping for, or at least something close)
(Update: for example, in 2008, exit polls showed Obama winning the Hispanic vote by a 36 point margin, and in 2004 they showed Kerry winning the Hispanic vote by a 9 point margin.)

In 2008, the electorate was 74% white, according to exit polls. Since 1992, the electorate has been ~3.2 points less white each cycle, which would put us at 71% white this year. But Gallup says that won't happen this year, and 2012 will be the same as 2008. Meanwhile, Conventional Wisdom says minorities are bummed and won't turn out this year. Minority voters themselves say otherwise when asked.

3. Pick your level of white support
In 2008, Obama had 43% support from white voters. In 2010, House Democrats had 38%. In 1984, Mondale had 35%. Polls are currently showing around 38-41% (splitting undecideds and leaving 1.5% other.) At least one pollster is known to have overestimated white support for Democrats in 2010, however.

Here's the tables:
Each Scenario from Step 1 has a table below. Use the table for your Scenario and your choices in Steps 2 and 3 to find Obama's final margin based on your assumptions.

If Obama can do just one point better among whites than Democrats did in 2010 - 39% - (which would occur even if preferences among whites stay the same as 2010, because of greater turnout from young voters) then Obama cannot lose the popular vote as long as he maintains support among minorities at 2008 levels (Scenario 1) - and especially if he increases it (Scenario 2). It wouldn't even matter if turnout bucks history and yields an electorate 1% more white than the previous electorate. So the main question is - was 2010 a recent low point for white support for Democrats, or will it go lower? Details and explanations below the fold.

Demographic trends in the electorate.
At this point I think it's common knowledge that the electorate is growing less white over time, but what might not be clear is how robust that trend has been in the recent past:

This is no bouncy, uncertain wandering downwards. However, it is also not physics, and as such, the trend could conceivable reverse itself if racial minorities do not turn out to vote, or if the number of white voters skyrockets.

But let's look at a real-life worst-case scenario: 2010. I think we can all agree 2010 was a terrible year for Democrats. And what happened in 2010? The electorate was still one point less white than four years previously. If the demographic trend could withstand 2010, it is pretty safe to say it will continue in 2012.

So what do the data say this year?
We know the Latino citizen voting age population has grown by 22% since 2008, from Census data. We also know that in the past 20 years there has been a very strong correlation between the number of eligible voters and the number of actual voters. (See graph here.) We can use that information to predict a range of 10.4-11.8 million Latino voters this year, up from 9.7 million in 2008. If the number of all voters increases by 3% over 2008 (following population growth) then that would be an increase in the Latino share of the voting population of 0.5-1.9 percentage points.

We also have 'expectations' of another 600,000 new Asian voters this year, by way of the NAAS survey.  That's an 18% increase that would bring the share from around 2.6% of the electorate to about 3.0%.

Are minorities registering?
But what about actual registration data? That is thin on the ground, but a quick search yields data for four states.

In Florida, since 2008, there's been an increase of registered voters of 28% for Asian voters, 10% for Black voters, 23% for Hispanic voters... and, coming nowhere close to balancing this out, a 2% increase in white voters.

In Georgia, it's 27% for Asian, 10% for Black, 34% for Hispanic, and 7% for white. And 76% for Other, which I wonder if it doesn't include a bunch of conservative 'post-racial' whites.

In North Carolina, it's 11% for Black, 70%(!) for Hispanic, and 3% for white. And 265% for Other, cripes! (Note that registration is ongoing in NC.)

In South Carolina, it's about 7% for both whites and non-whites, with a slight advantage for non-whites.

The share of non-white registered voters (not including the ever-popular Other) is increasing in all these states. There is no evidence of a surge of white registered voters. There is no evidence of a registration deficit for minorities, despite the concern trolling. (And not very good trolling at that - the premise of the article is OH NOES! Minority registration dropped 2%! Obama is doomed! But later, buried in paragraph 11 showing that, oh yeah, by the way, white registration also dropped - by 6%. Not to mention the numbers are two years old.)

Fine, but just because somebody's registered doesn't mean they'll vote. It could be that a ton of minorities who took the time to register won't bother to vote.

There's been plenty of analysis of early voting in swing states, but I worry that these numbers are unduly influenced by differences in the local ground game compared to 2008 and are not reflective of the country as a whole. (Although of course it's great for winning the electoral college.)

I looked at Cook County, Illinois early returns, and it seems that while the initial days of early voting are more popular than in 2008, the heaviest turnout is in suburbs where McCain won. Promotions and changes make it difficult to compare though. But chalk one up for the 'white conservatives are more likely to vote this year' theory.

Contradicting that idea is the Oregon ballot returns data. This is a nice apples-to-apples comparison to 2008, because the voting mechanism (vote by mail) hasn't changed, and Oregon is not a swing state this year, nor was it in 2008. Overall, a greater percent of ballots have been returned compared to 2008. Returns are about the same for both Democrats and Republicans, very similar to 2008. So in Oregon at least, there's no evidence of a massive Republican voter surge, nor of terribly dispirited Democrats. Update 11/2: Returns are now lagging 2008, and Republican turnout is one point ahead of Democratic turnout (still "about the same" but a little less so than before).

But minorities aren't enthusiastic! I heard it on NPR!
Utter poppycock.

First, let's look at African-American voters. 44% of Black citizens over 18 voted in 2010, the most in a midterm election in 20 years. If the African-American community managed to chalk up higher than normal turnout in the lousy year of 2010, why would turnout slump in 2012?

We also see the excitement of African-American and Latino voters building this year. In fact, in the past three weeks of Latino Decisions polling, 40-45% of Latino voters have said they are more enthusiastic than in 2008, with 20-24% saying they are just as enthusiastic. And, I might mention, 8% have already voted, and 87% say they are 100% certain to vote.

Obama's minority support.
So it looks like minority voters are registering and they're enthusiastic. But will they support Obama with the same gigantic margins they did in 2008?

Not likely. The margins will be even bigger, if polls are to be believed. Here's some apples-to-apples comparisons, which were used to create the table for Scenario 2:

African-Americans:
Pew. Fall 2008 O+88, fall 2012 O+89.

Asian:
NAAS. Fall 2008 O+15, Fall 2012 O+22.

Hispanic/Latino:
Pew. Fall 2008 O+36, Fall 2012, O+43
Gallup. Spring 2008 O+29, Spring 2012 O+41
Latino Decisions. Summer 2008 O+37, Summer 2012 O+48

Here's trends this year among Latino voters (note Romney's goal is 38%, or approximately a 22-point margin):

Appendix: The tables behind the tables.
The demographic breakdown for the tables can be seen here, and the minority support tables for each Scenario can be seen here. The 2008 and 2004 support levels are taken from exit polls; the other numbers are informed speculation on my part. The 2008 exit polls numbers were used as a base and adjusted from there. For instance, Latino Decisions generally has more Democratic-leaning numbers (and likely more correct numbers) than the exit polls, so I used the change in numbers from 2008 polls instead of the absolute value of the 2012 polls.

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#### Comment Preferences

• ##### voting like many things becomes part of a routine(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Woody, MattTX

2008 brought many people, who felt like they had been left out of the political process for years, into the voting booth.
and they succeeded.
that is going to be hard to turn back time on.

good diary -thanks

"With malice toward none, with charity for all..." -Abraham Lincoln not a modern republican

• ##### Breaking news! At 1:40am EDT (Sunday) the last(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bontemps2012, dsmmom

last two people came out of the early voting polling station in Miami Dade!!!!

Huge lines all the way and great dedication to the democratic process are the basic elements of this year's Presidential race in Southern Florida!!!

That's extremely GOOD news for the Obama campaign. Actually the President will be in the Sunshine state today!!!

Some demographic date of Miami Dade county are given below based on the US Census Bureau statistics.

Hispanic/ Latinos: 64,5% (!!!) of the total population in the county.
African Americans: 19,3%
Whites: 16%
Others: 3,3%
Total Minority population: 84% (!!!)

We will definitely carry Florida after all!!!!

• ##### We've been tracking a RAND-like pool of FL voters(4+ / 0-)

on the conservative side. The aim is to evaluate effectiveness for contacts, mailers, door-hangers, robocalls, p2p calls, and the like.

Time and again, something gets mailed out that makes a big splash and then sinks out of memory/recall two weeks later.

Spanish language mailers do get more thorough attention. People talk about what is presented.

Most importantly, these voters are intolerant with respect to planned lying. Maybe it's the Latin experience with dictators? Lying is thought to go hand-in-hand with corruption -- a useful contribution to community intelligence.

And yes, Romney got stupid in Florida. Romney had no idea what mattered to his own registered-Republican voters. He's as dumb a compaigner as Palin.

• ##### Just remember that...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Steve Magruder

Dade county will probably have one of the lowest margins for Latinos voting Obama in the country due to the large Cuban population.

If Obama gets over 60% if Latinos there I'll be extremely happy.

• ##### I am still (3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Woody, MattTX, redrelic17

sick about the lack of exit polling for all the states. In Texas and California such data would've shown minority turnout trends that we will now lack.

2.4 million ballots have been cast in Texas already.
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/...

Oh well, trying to figure it all out later can be fun.

The Spice must Flow!

• ##### That's pretty similar to 2008.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MattTX

This year's turnout is almost exactly the same as 2008 so far. Montgomery and Galveston are up 5%, while Travis is down 8%. But Harris is up 2% and Hidalgo is up 6%. Hmm, interesting...

• ##### Galveston(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
gigantomachyusa

It makes total sense that Galveston should be up, because Galveston was hit right before the early vote period by Hurricane Ike.

Travis is a bit disappointing, but Hidalgo is encouraging.

• ##### Travis(0+ / 0-)

Travis is getting killed by a combination of redistricting, low statewide polling for Dems, and a freakishly long proposition ballot making lines longer than they normally are for early voting.

• ##### 2.4 million is an understatement(0+ / 0-)

It is really much higher. That 2.4 million only counts the 15 largest counties.

• ##### What about the other counties?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MattTX

Do they have more data hidden somewhere I'm not seeing?

• ##### They don't report(0+ / 0-)

The Secretary of State only collects the data from the top 15 counties. Some other counties report data, but you have to go and look on individual county websites.

For example, here's another 55,722 votes from one significant county which is not in the top 15.

Since TX has 254 counties, and since the smaller ones don't have websites and don't report data, it's not very practical to try and track...

• ##### Also(0+ / 0-)

You can call and get the data.

22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

[ Parent ]

• ##### I am in Plano(4+ / 0-)

My husband and I voted on Wednesday.  This was our first time voting in TX.  Very easy.  Unfortunately, our votes won't make a difference.  Don't like living in a red state!

• ##### yes they will.(5+ / 0-)
Unfortunately, our votes won't make a difference.
while it's likely (ok, pretty much certain) that romney will take tx, your votes will provide a stark contrast to the radicals currently running the state. the smaller the margin of a romney victory in tx, the more obvious that radical republican control is dying. if nothing else, they'll freak out even more than they already are.

great family entertainment.

• ##### yes it will - when we moved to our township in(3+ / 0-)

PA in 1986, it was less than 25% registered Dems. GOP had controlled the county commissioners majority since, well, forever.  In 2008 McCain beat Obama by 4 votes out of some 7600 total in my township - most are still registered Repubs but they increasingly actually vote for Dems for Pres.  My county - Montgomery County, PA - last year elected a majority of Democrats to the county commissioners office - the first time since Woodrow Wilson was President in the 191x era.

• ##### Wonderful info(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MattTX

Thanks again.

Question: Any sense of the proportion of straight ticket voting vs ticket splitting voting among various demographics?

I'm still hoping we can win a bunch of upsets and retake the House. (Of course, the overall Obama/Romney margin in the national vote is one large factor.) Because if, for example, Hispanics tend to vote for every name in the Democratic column more than do whites (we call 'em Anglos in Texas), that could perhaps tip House races in Nevada and California and possibly a few others.

• ##### Latino voters give high support to Cong Dems(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MattTX, Woody

Almost as much support as for Obama, only a point or two off, according to Latino Decisions. Most recent numbers are 69-22.

In Arizona, we did see ticket splitting in that McCain did about 10 points better than Brewer among Hispanic voters.

And, we may see some of that in TX this year too - that will be very interesting to keep an eye on. I read somewhere about a study that having a Hispanic surname is worth about 5 points for a generic Republican among Hispanic voters. But Cruz is pretty extreme, we'll see if co-ethnic voting still occurs to that extent.

As far as the House, I think Obama would have to pull off a 3- or 4- point win to do that. But that's not impossible.

• ##### Well in Texas (my home state) Cruz is polling high(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
TexasDemocrat, LizzyPop

among Latinos.  I think it is a given he will win.  Of course this is a Senate race.  I just hate it because he is a tea party favorite and no telling what kind of garbage he will pull once he gets to Washington.

• ##### I love, I love(0+ / 0-)

I love, I love, I love the "Exit Poll Demographic Trend" chart.

One picture says 1000 words.

R squared .9922...

Great stuff, as always, dreaminonempty!

• ##### But remember...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MattTX, gigantomachyusa

Gallup says the electorate will be 78% white this year. Trends be damned.

• ##### I think I'll take(0+ / 0-)

the .9922 r^2 over Gallup. :)

• ##### why do we need race to matter?(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus, Steve Magruder

I have been here a lot longer than most of you, so my questions are more theoretical than not.  I think we need to start asking ourselves, why do we need certain races to show up, so that we get a win.

Will the day come when more people of all colors agree with our philosophy?  Will the day come when people vote based on what is right, not based on their ethnicity?

There is something odd going on when our top two voting groups are those with a post graduate education, and those without a high school diploma.  Think about it, what does that mean. I don't know what that means, but I realize we are as stratified as any voting bloc in history.  We might ask ourselves how did this happen.  I am not so comfortable with this situation, we seem to be missing something.

I realize this discussion is for after the election, but the discussion must be had, before we start talking about Nepalese in Eastern Tennessee.

• ##### i grew up in Deep South - it's all about race(5+ / 0-)

My extended family votes straight ticket GOP because the Democrats "help the blacks" (some, even some with college degrees, use the N word instead).  In this election it is because Obama IS black (in their minds proving their point).  Several are barely above poverty and depend on various safety net programs - but they are as thoroughly racist and right wing Republican as the others.  All of the ones who use the N word freely are also devout Catholics who attend Mass regularly.  Because they go to church so regularly, they tend to look down their noses at the rest of us who do not.  (My extended family happens to be Catholic.  I am not asserting that Catholics are any more racist than others.)  As one generation dies off, the younger ones are marginally less extreme on various issues but still vote straight Republican, even the college-educated pro-choice young women.  Oddly, they seem to be less agitated about gay marriage than they are about "big Government", welfare cheats, and government programs that "help the blacks".

• ##### electoral divides(0+ / 0-)

I think that we should always (in our current historical period) remember that another persistent "divide" in this country is geographical/historical. Since the 1940's, non-white voters have favored the Democrats. And then, with the great "southern strategy" Nixon & Co took over the South. The South, in truth, has always lagged ages behind the rest of the country in social progress.

The Democrats sometimes countered this situation by choosing southeners as Presidential candidates (hello Clinton!). Sometimes they were successful....And then, with Obama, no more will you see support for Democrats in the South. But, as far as the rest of the country is concerned, the trend is definitely in favor of the Dems. So now, we have the whole Southwest leaning, not to mention states like Colorado in the West.
In a real sense, it can be seen as a cultural phenomenum. In the meantime, outside the deep South and parts of the Mid-west, cultural change has proceeded non-stop! Hurrah!

• ##### Especially interesting stuff(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Sylv

considering that Romney's more or less directed his strategy solely at ginning up his white vote. If that's not a good enough strategy for a republican to win in 2012...

• ##### It goes back to the debate - (0+ / 0-)

Is there a floor to white Democratic support under ordinary circumstances? Was it reached in 2010? Will it drop out beneath us? Could it get any worse than it is this year?

One argument that it could is that 18-24 year-olds are less Democratic than 25-29 year-olds. I think this is in part due to  having missed out or not paid as much attention during the Bush years. If we should have three or four successive Democratic presidencies, I think, ironically, it might dull Democratic support among white youth who come of age during that time, which would party counteract demographic trends.

• ##### Yeah, that's a fascinating question.(0+ / 0-)

As near as I can tell, there's been no long-term decline in Dem performance among whites outside the south, and improvement in a lot of states, especially the northeast (and possibly the midwest?). But more to your point: those 18-24 year olds are still more democratic than the old folks they're replacing, no?

• ##### Maybe(0+ / 0-)

They're more democratic than the 65+ white demographic - but the ones they're replacing are more like the 80+ demographic - the new deal democrats. We don't know if this demographic still votes more democratic anymore, but they are nominally more democratic  than the early baby boomers. However, if 18-24 are about the same in party preference as 80+, that wouldn't counteract racial demographic trends, would it? It just wouldn't enhance them. So I stand (probably) corrected! :)

• ##### Equal marriage may save us.(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
wishingwell, Steve Magruder

As long as the Rs keep going on about how allowing same-sex couples to wed will "destroy marriage", they'll keep losing the 18-24 year olds. They just don't believe it.

"I like to go into Marshall Field's in Chicago just to see all the things there are in the world that I do not want." M. Madeleva, C.S.C.

[ Parent ]

• ##### one flaw with that(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus

some of us mistakenly believe that young people will keep the same views throughout their lives.  History has shown that idea to be a pipe dream.  Yes, the young are more liberal, but they grow more conservative as they age.

Don't get me wrong, I do believe American society has greatly moved towards marriage equality.  But the process is slow, and you can't simply depend on the youth to keep the same views.  I say this because it has never happened in the history of this nation.  Hell, the how many flower children are voting Romney?  And the ones voting for Obama, for the most part, are not thinking about marriage equality.

• ##### Can you cite a study(0+ / 0-)

showing that young people grow more conservative as they age?

• ##### There are various analyses.(0+ / 0-)

Here's one.

I've seen similar research several times.  Political party affiliation is somewhat plastic with respect to age.

-7.75 -4.67

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

There are no Christians in foxholes.

[ Parent ]

• ##### I have written(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Chachy

about popular vote vrs electoral vote before.

The primary reason why I believe there will not be a split has to do with Obama's performance in California.  Contrary to what has been posted here, Obama is not underperforming more than expected in red states.  In fact, the polling says the opposite.

But where he IS underperforming is in California.  Obama won by 10 million votes in 2008 - of which 3 million came from California.  Right now Obama is underperforming by about 11% in Florida.  I do not think that will last, because the decline in Obama's number is almost a result of a decline in his own number, and not a rise in Romney's number.  In the last few cycles the Democratic margin in California has been underestimated in pre-election pollling.

Here is a list of the big states - compare the pre and post election.

The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

• ##### This should read(0+ / 0-)

now Obama is underperforming by about 11% in California.

The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

[ Parent ]

• ##### Possible.(0+ / 0-)

Looking at poll-to-poll comparisons in October, PPIC had +23 in 2008 and +12  in 2012, and SUSA had +24 in 2008 and +14 in 2012. But that was the worst part of October, which gives me pause. For September numbers, Field had +24 this year - I am very curious what the final Field poll will show, which should be out today or tomorrow.

I don't think there will be a split between popular vote and electoral college either. I think the national polls are more likely to be wrong.

• ##### Demographics is destiny these days(0+ / 0-)

I was long of the view that 40% of the white vote was Obama's lower threshold for reelection, but that's based on what we know from the polls (that you have convinced me probably overstate his level of white support).

Ok, so I read the polls.

• ##### Probably always has been(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
andgarden

Humans are simply tribal animals; always have been, always will be, and I believe that shows up to varying degrees in our voting, especially among Republicans these days.

• ##### e.g., the demography(0+ / 0-)

of the 19th century.

Ok, so I read the polls.

[ Parent ]

• ##### The Right and the Corporate Owners of Our Public(0+ / 0-)

square are tribal. Whether or how much "humans" are, our owners who have the Constitutional duty to inform us and host our discourse certainly are.

We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

[ Parent ]

• ##### Nate Silver Obama 80.8% tonight(0+ / 0-)

Just posted at 8:52PM... O 80.8% to R's 19.2%...+303+ EV's

• ##### Amazing article, thanks.(0+ / 0-)

Question: Might slowing net migration from Mexico and other CA countries impact these numbers?

(and I say this as a voter from inland Tennessee who hasn't paid attention to this issue in 4 years.)

Oh, the hills are groaning with excess, like a table ceaselessly being set.

• ##### Not in the short term.(0+ / 0-)

New immigrants translate to new voters by 1) having kids, which takes 18 years for effects to show up or 2) gaining citizenship, which is a painfully slow process that often takes 10-15 years or more.

• ##### Cheers, thanks again for the analysis(0+ / 0-)

Oh, the hills are groaning with excess, like a table ceaselessly being set.

[ Parent ]

• ##### Referring to Step 1?(0+ / 0-)

If you are referring to Step 1, I mean percent voting for Obama - as in Hispanic voters supporting Obama with 67% of their votes in 2008. I will add clarification to the text, thanks.

• ##### I've been canvassing in Albuquerque(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus, LizzyPop, Steve Magruder

My favorite thing about canvassing this year has been the many people who have told me that they have 'been citizens since 1984,' but ar only this year voting for the first time!  Imagine how diferent things would have been if Republicans had embraced Reagan's legacy of amnesty, instead of foolishly forswearing it.

'I am not anti-gun. I'm pro-knife." Molly Ivins

• ##### It's closer than I expected(0+ / 0-)

But the chances that any Repub would beat Obama were always low. The only time I ever had any serious doubt was the week after the first debate.

And now I am going outside to turn three times and spit, so as to not tempt the wrath of whatever atop the thing.

"Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

• ##### Well, Alabama beat LSU tonight...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
secret38b

And supposedly, when Alabama wins that game before a presidential election, the Democrat candidate wins.

I know it is a stretch, but I will take any extras to make it happen!!

Roll Tide!!!

• ##### Joe Scarborough(0+ / 0-)

must be she*%%+ng in his pants about right now. And, he does love his Alabama team.

The GOP hate me! I'm black, a woman, disabled veteran, divorced mother and liberal. THEY SUCK!

[ Parent ]

• ##### Wisconsin...2008 vs. 2010 vs. recall vs. 2012?(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
ems97206, Odysseus, LizzyPop, kat herder

We can attest to this in Wisconsin.  Huge minority turnout, especially in Milwaukee in 2008. This was missing when Walker was elected in 2010, and during the recall vote.  We kept hearing about numbers approaching 2008 presidential levels for the recall, but they were only a tad nigher than the original 2010 vote for gov.  (more than 500,000 off if I recall correctly).  I know that is part of the reason some wanted to try and time the recall to align with the presidential election, soething that would have been hard (if not impossible) to do with the gamesmanship being played (fake candidates in primaries).

Obama needs 2008 levels to win Wisconsin.  I beleive he will get it (and will carry Tammy Baldwin on his coattails as well for the Senate).  But Repubs are very energized in this state right now...much more than 2008... making the point of this diary spot on accurate.

• ##### One of the best diaries I've read(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
ems97206, PrahaPartizan

Just brilliant. Thank you. The analysis is both objective (it involves maths) and transparent (one can make their own assessment of critical unknowns). But beyond that it's trenchant: you give reasons for believing the value of some input (non-white participation, for example) without insisting or cheerleading that the trends MUST continue.

Again, thank you. And well done.

• ##### Honestly...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Wolf Of Aquarius

I'm not sure that the numbers will be comparable - not now, and not every four years. When we moved to San Jose three years ago, I heard this joke for the first time (of many):

"What do you call a white person in San Jose?"

"Old."

As fladem noted above, California is a bit of a wildcard. What may make the difference this year is not the presidential ticket, but a huge number of ballot measures with pretty stark partisan differences around them. Instead of hoping that folks who vote for the President will look at the initiatives, we may be in a situation where people choosing to vote so they can vote for 30 or against 32 will also vote for Obama.

"I like to go into Marshall Field's in Chicago just to see all the things there are in the world that I do not want." M. Madeleva, C.S.C.

• ##### Not according to Bagdad Todd(0+ / 0-)

A couple of hours ago he was on the tube with numerous ways that a Romney win is possible and according to my take on his demeanor - likely.

Perhaps one day the Fourth Estate will take their jobs seriously. Or not..

• ##### I have been hearing (2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
secret38b, Steve Magruder

that about Chuck Todd for awhile now.  But I actually haven't watched him much.

I saw his show tonight.  And my impression is that he most likely believes Obama wins.  He and Tom Brokaw were talking about  a status quo election:  Same President, same Republican margin in the House; same Democratic margin in the Senate.

It is hard to tell with Todd imo.  He is clearly a Democrat and his wife works in politics on the Democratic side.

.

[ Parent ]

• ##### STOP FREAKING ME OUT(2+ / 0-)

I hate this - let it be Wednesday already

Do I laugh now, or wait 'til it gets funny?

• ##### I know the feeling.(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
wishingwell

But, I think we can relax a little.  It is looking good!

• ##### Texas Hispanics(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
SusanInTXunfortunately

Numerically they should add enough for a win, but I've never seen an explanation of why they vote in such low numbers.

• ##### We are relatively new to TX...(0+ / 0-)

All of the manual laborers are Hispanic here.  You never see anyone else doing lawn work here.  I am so impressed with our guys.

But, I don't know if they are legally here.  I so wish there was a path for them.

I shop at a couple of thrift stores that have all Hispanic employees.  They announce stuff in Spanish and then in English.

Do you think they don't vote because they are not legally here or because they are intimidated?

• ##### There's a difference between(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus

Being here legally and being a citizen.

They might have green cards, but that doesn't make you a citizen, and only citizens can vote.

They could be citizens, might ave been born here. I've known plenty of people who were citizens and bilingual.

• ##### PPP Poll today for reference...O + 3(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Steve Magruder

74% White

• ##### Here ARE the tables, not "here's the tables"(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Mr Robert, 1world

Sorry, this is a big pet peeve, and unfortunately, it's very common nowadays. Even professors, news anchors, everyone seems to make it.

It's very simple:

The verb must agree with subject.

In this case, the verb is "to be".

The subject (tables) is plural.

Hence, the verb must be in the plural form too: "are".

• ##### annoys me too(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
newyorknewyork

Far too many people use the singular of the verb "to be" and I have been told that it is colloquial American English. I find it extremely dissonant.

• ##### It's an informal idiomatic, not literal, usage.(0+ / 0-)

And happily for you it's getting less common. If you search google books for the phrases "Here's two" versus your (presumed) preferred informal phrase of "Here're two" you will see that the ratio of the first to the second has decreased from 1136:1 in the 19th century to 70:1 in the 20th century, and 45:1 in the 21st century. So this pet peeve of yours may disappear eventually!

For those who love the details of language usage, you may find this post on the topic interesting.

• ##### GOTV is now my favorite acronym(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
LizzyPop

The long lines at the early voting sites is making me happier than it should. Long lines are difficult to stand in. I wish there was someone that would pass out lawn chairs or something. Anyway it's still a good thing to see. GOTV! Oh and I wish we had early voting in Minnesota. I feel like all the cool kids are early voting and now I have to wait til the 6th.

• ##### if minorities vote, Republicons can't win(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Thinking Fella, LizzyPop

"Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
THREE days to go! DO SOMETHING NOW to bring this home for the blue team!!!

• ##### "Other" I wonder if the increase in "other" also(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Thinking Fella, mmacdDE

includes biracial (or more!) people who don't want to choose one heritage over the other.

• ##### Probably a contributing factor(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Lorikeet

And another possibility is a change in the voter registration form to make that category more attractive. But who knows.

• ##### minority vote(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Thinking Fella

I was canvassing today in a suburb of Cincinnati and was pleased to see that the neighborhoods where I was knocking on doors (registered Democrats at this point), were composed of many minority groups - Asians, a few Hispanics, and African Americans. The future may be bright but we need to hang tough in the short term too.

• ##### Speaking of Cook County, IL(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Thinking Fella, Odysseus

On the ground: many of the city and more liberal suburban precincts (e.g. Evanston) had lines of over an hour to vote today. It actually has me worried, as the people most likely to give up and go home are probably the ones we most want voting.

• ##### Were there any volunteers encouraging (0+ / 0-)

people to stay in line?

Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

[ Parent ]

• ##### Mostly...(0+ / 0-)

I think they were telling people "oh, it will be just five more minutes". I voted on the 24th, around 2pm, and it took close to an hour.

• ##### Excellent way of(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
LizzyPop

laying it out there and breaking it down. Even a simpleton such as me can get the math when you explain it for us. Thanks!

And nice charts. Usually I dislike/gloss over charts to some degree...your's rock.

"The better I know people, the more I like my dog."

• ##### To give you a clearer picture on Georgia,(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
wishingwell

this red state may just be starting to tint blue.

20/20 Insight Survey for better Georgia Likely Voters (pdf)

Atlanta Journal Constitution
Political Insider
White voter registration in Ga. dips below 60 percent

From what I've seen on local teevee, lines for voting were several hours long as early voting ended on Friday, and the numbers were tracking virtually even.

It's not just a zip code, it's an attitude.

• ##### I hate to bring this up with all this work you did(0+ / 0-)

"My Momma always taught me to play by the rules, and if you don't that's called cheatin'." - Donna Brazile

• ##### Thanks, but...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus, kat herder

... I'm pretty sure the diarist, and all of us, understand the difference between the popular vote and the electoral college vote.

That's why the title of the diary has the word "popular vote" in it.

Even if we can feel assured that Obama is going to win the electoral college vote, it still matters how he does in the popular vote, in terms of the perceived legitimacy of his electoral win.

• ##### No worries.(0+ / 0-)

But I ask you this: do you think the way Republicans respond to Obama's election would be different if he did versus did not win the popular vote as well? I think it would, and in that I think the popular vote does matter to some extent.

• ##### Look beyond each election.(0+ / 0-)

When an election  is close always vote lesser evil.
The media outfall will claim as much of a landslide as they can for whoever wins. So, lesser evil vote reduces the 'landslide' when evil wins, and push the win toward 'landslide' when lesser evil wins.

Watch polls (surveys) if you like, but surveys are useful only to allocate campaign efforts and to analyze underlying motivations of the surveyed subjects. Even push-pollers heed inklings of motivation in preceding polls, in order to maximize the fraud of the push-poll.

• ##### California Absentee Voting(0+ / 0-)

Many things are wrong in California. Voting isn't one of them, which we get right.

In Southern California, you can become a "permanent absentee voter" and vote by mail, for life, and you get your ballot a few weeks before the general election.

If you vote by mail in the current election, you will then receive your mail-in ballot via mail automatically for the midterm election in 2014. And you keep receiving mail-in ballots until you miss an election.

You can check your voter registration status anytime by visiting the registrar of voters. If you move, updating your address is as simple as completing a single sheet of paper and mailing it with signature to the registrar.

Getting the ballot a few weeks out is really nice, gives you time to sit at home and really look at the candidates and all the crazy-ass California propositions. Sign the envelope, mail it in, and you've voted. No lines, no waiting, no stress, easy on the registrar as well. Why doesn't every state do this?

• ##### Off topic: Question about voting lines...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus

I understand that every American has the right to a secret ballot, but can't that right be waived?

Why don't poll workers walk down the lines with stacks of ballots/envelopes and offer to let people check in and vote right there in line if they want too? I bet a lot of people would do it! I certainly wouldn't need a damn booth, give a pen!

They could fill in the ballot as the poll workers continue down the line, seal it in the envelope when they are done and hand it back to the poll workers. The End.

That would be a super simple way of making these lines disappear. Freaking DMV does a similar thing here in California with far more complicated forms than a ballot.

This nonsense of making everybody wait in line to vote behind a curtain is ridiculous. I understand some people want the privacy but I bet there are enough people who don't give a damn to make a big dent in those lines.

We lose if we choose to forget; the lives of men, and money spent.

• ##### Waiving of Secret Ballot(0+ / 0-)

Apparently can be done -- see New Jersey's response to the challenges to voting posed by Hurricane Sandy:

Upon receipt of the application, the County Clerk shall determine if the applicant is a qualified voter. If so, the County Clerk shall electronically send the ballot and the waiver of secrecy form to the voter by the method chosen by the voter (email/fax).
http://nj.gov/...
• ##### Kinda hard(0+ / 0-)

When you don't have a paper ballot. And most places don't anymore.

• ##### but why?(0+ / 0-)

Why do we need minorities?  Why do we need the poorest and those who spend the least time focusing on the news?  What has happened to our party when we need low information voters to win?  Is it not possible to win the argument with the engaged?

• ##### Why?(3+ / 0-)

because we are aiming for a fair and just society that doesn't treat people like they're inferior because of what they look like, where they're from, what their income is, or how much education they have.

Some people, many people, still have a problem with that desire, and they tend to benefit culturally from their perceived superiority.  Those people will fight to maintain that system.  They will not assist us in reaching for that fair and just society.

That is why we need the people who are currently marginalized by that same system.

And the "we" to whom you address your questions? "we" are the people currently marginalized by that system.  You have asked a group of people that is comprised of minorities why minorities are needed.  I do not have the words.

• ##### Department of Defense contractors, Homeland, banks(3+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
rhauenstein, Steve Magruder, ozoozol

law firms, corporate managers, hospital top-end employees, etc.

How much of this is minority ???

The system, itself, is white. Overwhelmingly.

Getting accountability over these people requires strong democracy. At least something. The Republican Party is all about letting the system run wild.

• ##### I don't know how to repair it(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bontemps2012

except to know that we can't stop trying.

• ##### taking into acct. that it's gallup, an outlier(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bontemps2012, Odysseus

pretty much all year, obama will take nearly 90% of the minority vote. he'll take 100% of the african american vote alone, seriously hurting romney in the south, where african americans represent the largest slice of the voting public.

in fact, by gallup's own admission, the only section of the country obama will fare badly in is the south, among white protestants. given the increase in the female/minority population in the south, this doesn't bode well for mr. romney's prospects. the states he wins, will be by-his-fingernails wins.

i predict an obama romp, gains for the dems in both houses as well.

• ##### Obama by a mile!(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bontemps2012, Odysseus

It's just my personal opinion, but I think the White turnout will break depending on the candidate. The White turnout for Obama should be fairly strong (at or above 2008 numbers), but the White turnout for Romney will be incredibly depressed based on the sour polling he is getting overall. He may look like he is winning the popular vote, but his battleground state polls have sucked for a very long time. The voters pick up on this! And they are never excited to vote for a guy that's solidly predicted to lose. Yes, I know . The Fox News crowd have been feeding the masses a lot of bullshit poll numbers for a couple years now but many people aren't that gullible. I think the Fox News ability to pull the wool over people's eyes has been greatly diminished as it continues to try to rewrite reality on a daily basis. They just can't keep up a lie for that long. You end up having people learn the truth eventually and they stop listening to your next lie.

The minority turnout should be at or above 2008 levels given all the recent news affecting latinos like the Self-Deport Mitt Doll and the Arizona attempts to arrest minorities. It's become a very dangerous world for Latinos all of the sudden and they won't stand for it come election day.

"I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

• ##### McCain was inert with respect to truths.(0+ / 0-)

Romney is sulfuric acid.

Latins and Catholics generally are intolerant of such people. Same for older Protestants, the ones who didn't watch "Dallas" and the like.

Work this last week has focused on Romney's nigh Satanic hatred for truths. That, together with the concept of a "Romney Apocalypse" in the offing that would make the Bush43 years look tame.

Comic books work !!

• ##### Why is this Diary is on top, all night?(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
CaliForDems, Odysseus

Why is this particular diary left on the top of DailyKos ("above the fold," as it were), all night, 3 days before the Presidential election?

I think we're getting roughly a million site visits/day. Why is this particular diary the very most important one that we want these million or so people to see, in order to win elections?

(No disrespect to the diary or diarist; it's just that there's lots of other editorial choices, too.)

• ##### Power outage?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Sharon Wraight

I am guessing it was because of on-the-fly rescheduling following the servers being offline so long on Friday.

And no disrespect taken!  :)

• ##### Hopefully....(4+ / 0-)

Dems are getting reminders to get the ballots OFF the kitchen tables...if you've gone to the trouble of getting your ballot..... put it in the damn mailbox and mail it!!

"Both figurative and literally, registered Democrats are leaving requested mail ballots on the table. Democrats are returning the mail ballots at a lower rate than Republicans, leading to wide disparities among the ballots that have been cast compared to the ballots that are still sitting on kitchen tables across the country..Many states require mail ballots cast by domestic civilians to be returned to election officials by election day, although some -- notably Ohio -- allow mail ballots to be postmarked by the day before the election and will continue to accept them until Nov. 16."..Michael P McDonald.

Recommended by:
LizzyPop

Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

[ Parent ]

• ##### deadline for receipt of ballots in PA past already(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus

In PA absentee ballots must be RECEIVED at the county board of elections office by 4pm on the Friday before the Tuesday election, in other words 2 days ago.  A few counties extended that deadline (due to Sandy) but most did not.  Anyone in PA who failed to return his or her absentee ballot BY last Friday will have the absentee ballot rejected and not counted.  Instead, the person must vote in person on Tuesday in order to have his or her vote counted.  PA has no early voting and all absentee ballot voting is by excuse only - in a nursing home or other medical reason (must identify your treating physician's name, phone number and doctor office address on the absentee ballot application!) or out of town on election day.

• ##### Thanks for a first-rate diary.(0+ / 0-)

Of course, the pollsters with large corporate consulting practices have been misstating the demographics of this 2012 electorate.

Gallup, particularly, has been openly dishonest in their web site explanations of what is behind their numbers.

Rasmussen is dishonest to the point of being humorous. Electoral Vote has a new page that pulls the Ras trash out and shows what a NoRas poll system looks like:

Late last week for Senate races:

Not that these Dems will win all the Senate seats that have them slightly ahead... but this does look to be a 55- or 56-seat Senate. Likely enough of a pad to survive the 2014 election cycle -- a nightmare year for Senatorial Democrats. (Followed by 2016, which is heavenly.)

Ignoring the demographic trends you address here looks to be the route that Gallup and Rasmussen have taken to fake their results during this election cycle.

Thankfully, Romney's people believed them and put much less effort to their campaigns in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Maybe we won't take NC, but the other three are trending blue.

• ##### And the percentages:(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Odysseus

Here's the "No Ras" numbers for the close senate races:

Arizona: Carmona/Flake -- 45%/42%

Virginia: Kaine/Allen -- 48%/45%

Wisconsin: Baldwin/Thompson -- 48%/46%

Indiana: Donnelly/Mourdock -- 47%/46%

Montana: Tester/Rehberg -- 48%/47%
- - - - - - - - -

North Dakota: Heitkamp/Berg -- 48%/48%
- - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - -

Claire looks good. Better ground game, too.

• ##### Did the same thing happen in 2008?(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
bontemps2012

I seem to recall people being surprised by the racial demographics of the 2008 electorate too, yet the trend was already clearly in place.

But of course, this is not a simple physics equation with clear results, so Tea Party enthusiasm can definitely dampen the trend, and in theory even swamp it out completely.

• ##### "Romney Apocalypse" campaign is cracking(0+ / 0-)

th Tea Party / John Birch Society hold on these guys.

Florida, especially. Romney and Scott, together as zombies -- perfect.

• ##### Anecdotal evidence(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
LizzyPop

Went to vote in downtown Cincinnati yesterday at 8 a.m., figuring no one would be there yet. There was already a two-hour wait, and almost everyone in line was African-American.

• ##### Black voters most likely to vote early(0+ / 0-)

According to Rasmussen of all people, via this comment. That seems to indicate enthusiasm to me.

• ##### I hope I'm worrying needlessly(0+ / 0-)

However, couldn't voter suppression cause Obama to lose states in which his lead is relatively small?

• ##### Yes(0+ / 0-)

If a few thousand voters are turned away from the polls because of voter ID laws, which is voter suppression in my book, that could easily swing a close election. That's why Republicans do it.

• ##### Please tell me(0+ / 0-)

Suppose we exclude Dixie from national polls.  What percent of remaining white vote would O-man get?

• ##### About 45%.(0+ / 0-)

Based on the last two DailyKos/SEIU/PPP polls. He's probably improved a touch since then, but then, PPP polls tend to overestimate white support of Democrats by a point or two.